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Schulz, Michael

Publications and source records attributed to Schulz, Michael.

At least 37 records · Page 2

AerChemMIP: Quantifying the effects of chemistry and aerosols in CMIP6

The Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) is endorsed by the Coupled-Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) and is designed to quantify the climate and air quality impacts of aerosols and chemically reactive gases. These are specifically near-term climate forcers (NTCFs: methane, tropospheric ozone and aerosols, and their precursors), nitrous oxide and ozone-depleting halocarbons. The aim of AerChemMIP is to answer four scientific questions. 1. How have anthropogenic emissions contributed to global radiative forcing and affected regional climate over the historical period? 2. How might future policies (on climate, air quality and land use) affect the abundances of NTCFs and their climate impacts? 3.How do uncertainties in historical NTCF emissions affect radiative forcing estimates? 4. How important are climate feedbacks to natural NTCF emissions, atmospheric composition, and radiative effects? These questions will be addressed through targeted simulations with CMIP6 climate models that include an interactive representation of tropospheric aerosols and atmospheric chemistry. These simulations build on the CMIP6 Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima (DECK) experiments, the CMIP6 historical simulations, and future projections performed elsewhere in CMIP6, allowing the contributions from aerosols and/or chemistry to be quantified. As a result, specific diagnostics are requested as part of the CMIP6 data request to highlight the chemical composition of the atmosphere, to evaluate the performance of the models, and to understand differences in behaviour between them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global and Regional Radiative Forcing from 20 Reductions in BC, OC and SO4 an HTAP2 Multi-Model Study

In the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Phase 2 (HTAP2) exercise, a range of global atmospheric general circulation and chemical transport models performed coordinated perturbation experiments with 20% reductions in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols, or aerosol precursors, in a number of source regions. Here, we compare the resulting changes in the atmospheric load and vertically resolved profiles of black carbon (BC), organic aerosols (OA) and sulfate (SO4/ from 10 models that include treatment of aerosols. We use a set of temporally, horizontally and vertically resolved profiles of aerosol forcing efficiency (AFE) to estimate the impact of emission changes in six major source regions on global radiative forcing (RF) pertaining to the direct aerosol effect, finding values between. 51.9 and 210.8mW/sq m/Tg for BC, between -2.4 and -17.9mW/sq m/Tg for OA and between -3.6 and -10.3W/sq m/Tg for SO4. In most cases, the local influence dominates, but results show that mitigations in south and east Asia have substantial impacts on the radiative budget in all investigated receptor regions, especially for BC. In Russia and the Middle East, more than 80 % of the forcing for BC and OA is due to extra-regional emission reductions. Similarly, for North America, BC emissions control in east Asia is found to be more important than domestic mitigations, which is consistent with previous findings. Comparing fully resolved RF calculations to RF estimates based on vertically averaged AFE profiles allows us to quantify the importance of vertical resolution to RF estimates. We find that locally in the source regions, a 20% emission reduction strengthens the radiative forcing associated with SO4 by 25% when including the vertical dimension, as the AFE for SO4 is strongest near the surface. Conversely, the local RF from BC weakens by 37% since BC AFE is low close to the ground. The fraction of BC direct effect forcing attributable to intercontinental transport, on the other hand, is enhanced by one-third when accounting for the vertical aspect, because long-range transport primarily leads to aerosol changes at high altitudes, where the BC AFE is strong. While the surface temperature response may vary with the altitude of aerosol change, the analysis in the present study is not extended to estimates of temperature or precipitation changes.

profiles of aerosol forcing efficiency (AFE)↗

Recommendations for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from climate models for CMIP6

The usefulness of previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) exercises has been hampered by a lack of radiative forcing information. This has made it difficult to understand reasons for differences between model responses. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is easier to diagnose than traditional radiative forcing in global climate models (GCMs) and is more representative of the eventual temperature response. Here we examine the different methods of computing ERF in two GCMs. We find that ERF computed from a fixed sea surface temperature (SST) method (ERF_fSST) has much more certainty than regression based methods. Thirty year integrations are sufficient to reduce the 5–95% confidence interval in global ERF_fSST to 0.1Wm ~2 . For 2xCO2 ERF, 30 year integrations are needed to ensure that the signal is larger than the local confidence interval over more than 90% of the globe. Within the ERF_fSST method there are various options for prescribing SSTs and sea ice. We explore these and find that ERF is only weakly dependent on the methodological choices. Prescribing the monthly averaged seasonally varying model’s preindustrial climatology is recommended for its smaller random error and easier implementation. As part of CMIP6, the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP) asks models to conduct 30 year ERF_fSST experiments using the model’s own preindustrial climatology of SST and sea ice. The Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) will also mainly use this approach. Lastly, we propose this as a standard method for diagnosing ERF and recommend that it be used across the climate modeling community to aid future comparisons.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of the aerosol vertical distribution in global aerosol models through comparison against CALIOP measurements: AeroCom phase II results

The ability of 11 models in simulating the aerosol vertical distribution from regional to global scales, as part of the second phase of the AeroCom model intercomparison initiative (AeroCom II), is assessed herein and compared to results of the first phase. The evaluation is performed using a global monthly gridded data set of aerosol extinction profiles built for this purpose from the CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) Layer Product 3.01. Results over 12 subcontinental regions show that five models improved, whereas three degraded in reproducing the interregional variability in Z α 0–6 km , the mean extinction height diagnostic, as computed from the CALIOP aerosol profiles over the 0–6 km altitude range for each studied region and season. While the models' performance remains highly variable, the simulation of the timing of the Z α 0–6 km peak season has also improved for all but two models from AeroCom Phase I to Phase II. The biases in Z α 0–6 km are smaller in all regions except Central Atlantic, East Asia, and North and South Africa. Most of the models now underestimate Z α 0–6 km over land, notably in the dust and biomass burning regions in Asia and Africa. At global scale, the AeroCom II models better reproduce the Z α 0–6 km latitudinal variability over ocean than over land. Hypotheses for the performance and evolution of the individual models and for the intermodel diversity are discussed. We also provide an analysis of the CALIOP limitations and uncertainties contributing to the differences between the simulations and observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

What controls the vertical distribution of aerosol? Relationships between process sensitivity in HadGEM3–UKCA and inter-model variation from AeroCom Phase II

The vertical profile of aerosol is important for its radiative effects, but weakly constrained by observations on the global scale, and highly variable among different models. To investigate the controlling factors in one particular model, we investigate the effects of individual processes in HadGEM3–UKCA and compare the resulting diversity of aerosol vertical profiles with the inter-model diversity from the AeroCom Phase II control experiment. In this way we show that (in this model at least) the vertical profile is controlled by a relatively small number of processes, although these vary among aerosol components and particle sizes. We also show that sufficiently coarse variations in these processes can produce a similar diversity to that among different models in terms of the global-mean profile and, to a lesser extent, the zonal-mean vertical position. However, there are features of certain models' profiles that cannot be reproduced, suggesting the influence of further structural differences between models. In HadGEM3–UKCA, convective transport is found to be very important in controlling the vertical profile of all aerosol components by mass. In-cloud scavenging is very important for all except mineral dust. Growth by condensation is important for sulfate and carbonaceous aerosol (along with aqueous oxidation for the former and ageing by soluble material for the latter). The vertical extent of biomass-burning emissions into the free troposphere is also important for the profile of carbonaceous aerosol. Boundary-layer mixing plays a dominant role for sea salt and mineral dust, which are emitted only from the surface. Dry deposition and below-cloud scavenging are important for the profile of mineral dust only. In this model, the microphysical processes of nucleation, condensation and coagulation dominate the vertical profile of the smallest particles by number (e.g. total CN > 3 nm), while the profiles of larger particles (e.g. CN > 100 nm) are controlled by the same processes as the component mass profiles, plus the size distribution of primary emissions. Here, we also show that the processes that affect the AOD-normalised radiative forcing in the model are predominantly those that affect the vertical mass distribution, in particular convective transport, in-cloud scavenging, aqueous oxidation, ageing and the vertical extent of biomass-burning emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aerosol single-scattering albedo over the global oceans: Comparing PARASOL retrievals with AERONET, OMI, and AeroCom models estimates

The aerosol Single Scattering Albedo (SSA) over the global oceans is evaluated based on polarimetric measurements by the PARASOL satellite. The retrieved values for SSA and Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) agree well with the ground-based measurements of the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET). The global coverage provided by the PARASOL observations represents a unique opportunity to evaluate SSA and AOD simulated by atmospheric transport model runs, as performed in the AeroCom framework. The SSA estimate provided by the AeroCom models is generally higher than the SSA retrieved from both PARASOL and AERONET. On the other hand, the mean simulated AOD is about right or slightly underestimated compared with observations. An overestimate of the SSA by the models would suggest that these simulate an overly strong aerosol radiative cooling at top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and underestimate it at surface. This implies that aerosols have a potential stronger impact within the atmosphere than currently simulated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Data fusion in neutron and X-ray computed tomography

We present a fusion methodology between neutron and X-ray computed tomography (CT). On the one hand, the inspection by X-ray CT of a wide class of multimaterials in non-destructive testing applications suffers from limited information of object features. On the other hand, neutron imaging can provide complementary data in such a way that the combination of both data sets fully characterizes the object. In this contribution, a novel data fusion procedure, called Fusion Regularized Simultaneous Algebraic Reconstruction Technique, is developed where the X-ray reconstruction is modified to fulfill the available data from the imaging with neutrons. The experiments, which were obtained from an aluminum profile containing a steel screw, and attached carbon fiber plates demonstrate that the image quality in CT can be significantly improved when the proposed fusion method is used.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Sources, Sinks, and Transatlantic Transport of North African Dust Aerosol: A Multimodel Analysis and Comparison With Remote Sensing Data

This study evaluates model-simulated dust aerosols over North Africa and the North Atlantic from five global models that participated in the Aerosol Comparison between Observations and Models phase II model experiments. The model results are compared with satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor, dust optical depth (DOD) derived from MODIS and MISR, AOD and coarse-mode AOD (as a proxy of DOD) from ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network Sun photometer measurements, and dust vertical distributions/centroid height from Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder satellite AOD retrievals. We examine the following quantities of AOD and DOD: (1) the magnitudes over land and over ocean in our study domain, (2) the longitudinal gradient from the dust source region over North Africa to the western North Atlantic, (3) seasonal variations at different locations, and (4) the dust vertical profile shape and the AOD centroid height (altitude above or below which half of the AOD is located). The different satellite data show consistent features in most of these aspects; however, the models display large diversity in all of them, with significant differences among the models and between models and observations. By examining dust emission, removal, and mass extinction efficiency in the five models, we also find remarkable differences among the models that all contribute to the discrepancies of model-simulated dust amount and distribution. This study highlights the challenges in simulating the dust physical and optical processes, even in the best known dust environment, and stresses the need for observable quantities to constrain the model processes.

Africa↗

Impacts of Intercontinental Transport of Anthropogenic Fine Particulate Matter on Human Mortality

Fine particulate matter with diameter of 2.5 microns or less (PM2.5) is associated with premature mortality and can travel long distances, impacting air quality and health on intercontinental scales. We estimate the mortality impacts of 20 % anthropogenic primary PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursor emission reductions in each of four major industrial regions (North America, Europe, East Asia, and South Asia) using an ensemble of global chemical transport model simulations coordinated by the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution and epidemiologically-derived concentration-response functions. We estimate that while 93-97 % of avoided deaths from reducing emissions in all four regions occur within the source region, 3-7 % (11,500; 95 % confidence interval, 8,800-14,200) occur outside the source region from concentrations transported between continents. Approximately 17 and 13 % of global deaths avoided by reducing North America and Europe emissions occur extraregionally, owing to large downwind populations, compared with 4 and 2 % for South and East Asia. The coarse resolution global models used here may underestimate intraregional health benefits occurring on local scales, affecting these relative contributions of extraregional versus intraregional health benefits. Compared with a previous study of 20 % ozone precursor emission reductions, we find that despite greater transport efficiency for ozone, absolute mortality impacts of intercontinental PM2.5 transport are comparable or greater for neighboring source-receptor pairs, due to the stronger effect of PM2.5 on mortality. However, uncertainties in modeling and concentration-response relationships are large for both estimates.

human health↗

A Multimodel Assessment of the Influence of Regional Anthropogenic Emission Reductions on Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing and the Role of Intercontinental Transport

In this study, we assess changes of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and direct radiative forcing (DRF) in response to the reduction of anthropogenic emissions in four major pollution regions in the Northern Hemisphere by using results from nine global models in the framework of the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP). DRF at top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface is estimated based on AOD results from the HTAP models and AOD-normalized DRF (NDRF) from a chemical transport model. The multimodel results show that, on average, a 20% reduction of anthropogenic emissions in North America, Europe, East Asia, and South Asia lowers the global mean AOD (all-sky TOA DRF) by 9.2% (9.0%), 3.5% (3.0%), and 9.4% (10.0%) for sulfate, particulate organic matter (POM), and black carbon (BC), respectively. Global annual average TOA all-sky forcing efficiency relative to particle or gaseous precursor emissions from the four regions (expressed as multimodel mean +/- one standard deviation) is -3.5 +/-0.8, -4.0 +/- 1.7, and 29.5+/-18.1mW / sq m per Tg for sulfate (relative to SO2), POM, and BC, respectively. The impacts of the regional emission reductions on AOD and DRF extend well beyond the source regions because of intercontinental transport (ICT). On an annual basis, ICT accounts for 11 +/- 5% to 31 +/- 9% of AOD and DRF in a receptor region at continental or subcontinental scale, with domestic emissions accounting for the remainder, depending on regions and species. For sulfate AOD, the largest ICT contribution of 31 +/- 9% occurs in South Asia, which is dominated by the emissions from Europe. For BC AOD, the largest ICT contribution of 28 +/- 18% occurs in North America, which is dominated by the emissions from East Asia. The large spreads among models highlight the need to improve aerosol processes in models, and evaluate and constrain models with observations.

Europe↗

Application of the CALIOP Layer Product to Evaluate the Vertical Distribution of Aerosols Estimated by Global Models: AeroCom Phase I Results

The CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) layer product is used for a multimodel evaluation of the vertical distribution of aerosols. Annual and seasonal aerosol extinction profiles are analyzed over 13 sub-continental regions representative of industrial, dust, and biomass burning pollution, from CALIOP 2007-2009 observations and from AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) 2000 simulations. An extinction mean height diagnostic (Z-alpha) is defined to quantitatively assess the models' performance. It is calculated over the 0-6 km and 0-10 km altitude ranges by weighting the altitude of each 100 m altitude layer by its aerosol extinction coefficient. The mean extinction profiles derived from CALIOP layer products provide consistent regional and seasonal specificities and a low inter-annual variability. While the outputs from most models are significantly correlated with the observed Z-alpha climatologies, some do better than others, and 2 of the 12 models perform particularly well in all seasons. Over industrial and maritime regions, most models show higher Z-alpha than observed by CALIOP, whereas over the African and Chinese dust source regions, Z-alpha is underestimated during Northern Hemisphere Spring and Summer. The positive model bias in Z-alpha is mainly due to an overestimate of the extinction above 6 km. Potential CALIOP and model limitations, and methodological factors that might contribute to the differences are discussed.

Aerosols and particles↗

HPTLC Plate Blotting for Liquid Microjunction Surface Sampling Probe Mass Spectrometric Analysis of Analytes Separated on a Wettable Phase Plate

A blotting method that transfers analytes separated on wettable HPTLC plates to a hydrophobic reversed-phase C8 HPLTC plate suitable for analysis with a liquid microjunction surface sampling probe electrospray ionization mass spectrometry system was described and demonstrated. The simple blotting procedure transfers the analyte from the wettable plate to the topmost surface of a rigidly backed, easy-to-mount hydrophobic substrate that already has been proven viable for analysis by this sampling probe/mass spectrometry system. The utility of the approach was demonstrated by the analysis of a four-component peptide mixture originally separated on a ProteoChrom HPTLC cellulose sheet and then blotted to the reversed phase HPTLC plate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A HTAP Multi-Model Assessment of the Influence of Regional Anthropogenic Emission Reductions on Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing and the Role of Intercontinental Transport

In this study, we assess changes of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and direct radiative forcing (DRF) in response to the reduction of anthropogenic emissions in four major pollution regions in the northern hemisphere by using results from 10 global chemical transport models in the framework of the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP). The multi-model results show that on average, a 20% reduction of anthropogenic emissions in North America, Europe, East Asia and South Asia lowers the global mean AOD and DRF by about 9%, 4%, and 10% for sulfate, organic matter, and black carbon aerosol, respectively. The impacts of the regional emission reductions on AOD and DRF extend well beyond the source regions because of intercontinental transport. On an annual basis, intercontinental transport accounts for 10-30% of the overall AOD and DRF in a receptor region, with domestic emissions accounting for the remainder, depending on regions and species. While South Asia is most influenced by import of sulfate aerosol from Europe, North America is most influenced by import of black carbon from East Asia. Results show a large spread among models, highlighting the need to improve aerosol processes in models and evaluate and constrain models with observations.

Yu, Hongbin↗

Aerosol Comparisons Between Observations and Models: AeroCom and ABC

I will represent the AeroCom community to the Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC) workshop. I will summarize the activities and results from AeroCom Phase I activities in the past 8 years and introduce the new results and activities in the current AeroCom Phase II. We hope to coordinate some activities with the ABC community to share model output and data access for model evaluations, comparisons, and assessment.

Chin, Mian↗

The effect of Birkeland currents on magnetic field topology

A technique was developed for the inclusion of large scale magnetospheric current systems in magnetic field models. The region 1 and 2 Birkeland current systems are included in the source surface model of the terrestrial magnetosphere. The region 1 and 2 Birkeland currents are placed in the model using a series of field aligned, infinitely thin wire segments. The normal component of the magnetic field from these currents is calculated on the surface of the magnetopause and shielded using image current carrying wires placed outside of the magnetosphere. It is found that the inclusion of the Birkeland currents in the model results in a northward magnetic field in the near-midnight tail, leading to the closure of previously open flux in the tail, and a southward magnetic field in the flanks. A sunward shift in the separatrix is observed.

Peroomian, Vahe↗

Bounce-Averaged Hamiltonian for Charged Particles in an Axisymmetric but Nondipolar Model Magnetosphere

In order to facilitate bounce-averaged guiding center simulations of geomagnetically trapped particles, we express the kinetic energy of a particle with magnetic coordinates (L,phi) as an analytic function of the first two adiabatic invariants (M, J) and the L value of the field line. The magnetic field model is axisymmetric, consisting of a dipolar B field plus a uniform southward magnetic field parallel to the dipole moment mu(sub E). This model magnetosphere is surrounded by a circular equatorial neutral line whose radius b is an adjustable parameter. The L value of a field line is (by definition) inversely proportional to the flux enclosed by the corresponding magnetic shell of equatorial radius r(sub 0), and the L value at the neutral line (r(sub 0) = b) is denoted L*. The azimuthal coordinate phi measures magnetic local time. The best functional representation found for the normalized difference (L(exp 3)a(exp 3)/mu(sub E))(B(sub m) - B(sub 0)) between mirror-point field B(sub m) and equatorial field B(sub 0) along any field line is a 5-term expansion in powers (2/3 through 6/3) of the quantity X equivalent to (La/mu(sub E))(exp 1/2)K, where K equivalent to (J(exp 2)/8m(sub 0)M)(exp 1/2) is an adiabatically conserved quantity independent of particle energy, m(sub 0) is the rest mass of the particle, and a is the radius of the Earth. This functional form is motivated by results for limiting cases in which particles mirror very near and very far from the magnetic equator. Expansion coefficients corresponding to various powers of X are obtained from least squares fits to numerically computed results for X as a function of L and B(sub m). These are accurately expressible as fourth-order polynomials in (r(sub 0)/b)(exp 3), hence indirectly as functions of L/L* = 3La/2b. This representation, which leads (except for a manageably small region of parameter space) to better than 1% accuracy in the specification of B(sub m) as a function of K and L, allows bounce-averaged guiding center simulations to be performed without actually tracing the bounce motions of individual particles. Bounce-averaged drifts L' (meridional) and phi' (azimuthal) are proportional to derivatives of the Hamiltonian H (sum of kinetic and potential energies) with respect to phi and L, respectively. Our formulation thus provides a computationally efficient method for tracing the bounce-averaged adiabatic motion (conserving all three invariants) and nonadiabatic transport (violating the third invariant while conserving the first two invariants) of geomagnetically trapped particles in the model magnetosphere.

Schulz, Michael↗

Stormtime ring current and radiation belt ion transport: Simulations and interpretations

We use a dynamical guiding-center model to investigate the stormtime transport of ring current and radiation-belt ions. We trace the motion of representative ions' guiding centers in response to model substorm-associated impulses in the convection electric field for a range of ion energies. Our simple magnetospheric model allows us to compare our numerical results quantitatively with analytical descriptions of particle transport, (e.g., with the quasilinear theory of radial diffusion). We find that 10-145-keV ions gain access to L approximately 3, where they can form the stormtime ring current, mainly from outside the (trapping) region in which particles execute closed drift paths. Conversely, the transport of higher-energy ions (approximately greater than 145 keV at L approximately 3) turns out to resemble radial diffusion. The quasilinear diffusion coefficient calculated for our model storm does not vary smoothly with particle energy, since our impulses occur at specific (although randomly determined) times. Despite the spectral irregularity, quasilinear theory provides a surprisingly accurate description of the transport process for approximately greater than 145-keV ions, even for the case of an individual storm. For 4 different realizations of our model storm, the geometric mean discrepancies between diffusion coefficients D(sup sim, sub LL) obtained from the simulations and the quasilinear diffusion coefficient D(sup ql, sub LL) amount to factors of 2.3, 2.3, 1.5, and 3.0, respectively. We have found that these discrepancies between D(sup sim, sub LL) and D(sup ql, sub LL) can be reduced slightly by invoking drift-resonance broadening to smooth out the sharp minima and maxima in D(sup ql, sub LL). The mean of the remaining discrepancies between D(sup sim, sub LL) and D(sup ql, sub LL) for the 4 different storms then amount to factors of 1.9, 2.1, 1.5, and 2.7, respectively. We find even better agreement when we reduce the impulse amplitudes systematically in a given model storm (e.g., reduction of all the impulse amplitudes by half reduces the discrepancy factor by at least its square root) and also when we average our results over an ensemble of 20 model storms (agreement is within a factor of 1.2 without impulse-amplitude reduction). We use our simulation results also to map phase-space densities f in accordance with Liouville's theorem. We find that the stormtime transport of approximately greater than 145-keV ions produces little change in f-bar the drift-averaged phase-space density on any drift shell of interest. However, the stormtime transport produces a major enhancement from the pre-storm phase-space density at energies approximately 30-145 keV, which are representative of the stormtime ring current.

Lyons, Larry R.↗