Engineering topics

Schwarz, Tom

Publications and source records attributed to Schwarz, Tom.

4 records

DOE OSTI2022

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in accuracy between and within stand-alone models and more consistent accuracy from an ensemble model that combined forecasts from all eligible models. This demonstrates that an ensemble model provided a reliable and comparatively accurate means of forecasting deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic that exceeded the performance of all of the models that contributed to it. This work strengthens the evidence base for synthesizing multiple models to support public-health action.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

DAMIC at SNOLAB

We introduce the fully-depleted charge-coupled device (CCD) as a particle detector. We demonstrate its low energy threshold operation, capable of detecting ionizing energy depositions in a single pixel down to 50 eV ee . We present results of energy calibrations from 0.3 keV ee to 60 ke Vee , showing that the CCD is a fully active detector with uniform energy response throughout the silicon target, good resolution (Fano ~0.16), and remarkable linear response to electron energy depositions. We show the capability of the CCD to localize the depth of particle interactions within the silicon target. We discuss the mode of operation and unique imaging capabilities of the CCD, and how they may be exploited to characterize and suppress backgrounds. We present the first results from the deployment of 250 μm thick CCDs in SNOLAB, a prototype for the upcoming DAMIC100. DAMIC100 will have a target mass of 0.1 kg and should be able to directly test the CDMS-Si signal within a year of operation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2014

Properties of the Top Quark

We report that the top quark is the heaviest known elementary particle, and it is often seen as a window to search for new physics processes in particle physics. A large program to study the top-quark properties has been performed both at the Tevatron and LHC colliders by the D0, CDF, ATLAS and CMS experiments. The most recent results are discussed here in this article.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗