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Scullard, Christian R.

Publications and source records attributed to Scullard, Christian R..

4 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Examining the effects of soil entrainment during nuclear cloud rise on fallout predictions using a multiscale atmospheric modeling framework

Current operational models for nuclear cloud rise over land were developed and validated using observations from shallow-buried or surface detonations, where lofted soil quickly mixed with fission products from the detonation. These models poorly predict fallout from elevated detonations near the fallout-free height of burst (FFHOB), where interactions with the ground are limited and the mixing of fission products and lofted soil is incomplete. Fallout-free is a misnomer at this HOB, as fallout was observed in these cases, but was below the levels of concern, especially off-grounds of the nuclear test site. To correctly characterize and model fallout from detonations near the FFHOB, models must be developed which can capture the stratified nature of the particle and activity-size distributions within the cloud. Previously, it was shown that the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can accurately simulate nuclear cloud rise for airbursts with little to no ground interactions (Arthur et al., 2021). That work is expanded here by (1) using a radiation-hydrodynamics code to improve the fireball initialization in WRF, (2) further developing an aerosol package from WRF-Chem to simulate lofted soil, and (3) combining the WRF cloud rise simulations with the operational models used at the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) for fallout modeling. Using this combination of codes, the Upshot-Knothole Grable detonation, which was just below the FFHOB, is simulated from seconds after detonation through cloud rise and fallout, and results are compared to historical test data. Here, the results show improved prediction of dose rate and highlight the need to correctly characterize the entrainment of material into the cloud and the subsequent mixing of fission products with entrained material.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2022

Critical points of the random cluster model with Newman–Ziff sampling

Here, we present a method for computing transition points of the random cluster model using a generalization of the Newman–Ziff algorithm, a celebrated technique in numerical percolation, to the random cluster model. The new method is straightforward to implement and works for real cluster weight q > 0. Furthermore, results for an arbitrary number of values of q can be found at once within a single simulation. Because the algorithm used to sweep through bond configurations is identical to that of Newman and Ziff, which was conceived for percolation, the method loses accuracy for large lattices when q > 1. However, by sampling the critical polynomial, accurate estimates of critical points in two dimensions can be found using relatively small lattice sizes, which we demonstrate here by computing critical points for non-integer values of q on the square lattice, to compare with the exact solution, and on the unsolved non-planar square matching lattice. The latter results would be much more difficult to obtain using other techniques.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Critical percolation on the kagome hypergraph

In this report we study the percolation critical surface of the kagome lattice in which each triangle is allowed an arbitrary connectivity. Using the method of critical polynomials, we find points along this critical surface to high precision. This kagome hypergraph contains many unsolved problems as special cases, including bond percolation on the kagome and (3, 12 2 ) lattices, and site percolation on the hexagonal, or honeycomb, lattice, as well as a single point for which there is an exact solution. We are able to compute enough points along the critical surface to find a very accurate fit, essentially a Taylor series about the exact point, that allows estimations of the critical point of any system that lies on the surface to precision rivaling Monte Carlo and traditional techniques of similar accuracy. We find also that this system sheds light on some of the surprising aspects of the method of critical polynomials, such as why it is so accurate for certain problems, like the kagome and (3, 12 2 ) lattices. The bond percolation critical points of these lattices can be found to 17 and 18 digits, respectively, because they are in close proximity, in a sense that can be made quantitative, to the exact point on the critical surface. We also discuss in detail a parallel implementation of the method which we use here for a few calculations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗