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Sengupta, Manajit

Publications and source records attributed to Sengupta, Manajit.

At least 55 records · Page 3
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DOE OSTI2022

Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100): Six-Month Progress Update [Slides]

Puerto Rico has committed to meeting its electricity needs with 100% renewable energy by 2050, along with realizing interim goals of 40% by 2025, 60% by 2040, the phase-out of coal-fired generation by 2028, and a 30% improvement in energy efficiency by 2040, as established in Puerto Rico Energy Public Policy Act (Act 17). Since hurricanes Irma and Maria in September 2017, DOE and its national laboratories have provided Puerto Rico energy system stakeholders with tools, training, and modeling support to enable planning and operation of the electric power grid with more resilience against further disruptions. On February 2, 2022, DOE, FEMA, and six national laboratories launched the two-year Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) to conduct comprehensive analysis of stakeholder-driven pathways to Puerto Rico's energy future. The robust and objective energy analysis entails five activities, with an emphasis on power system reliability, resilience, and generation planning. This presentation provides a six-month progress update on the study, including presentation of four initial scenario frameworks defined with extensive stakeholder input.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estudio de Resiliencia de la Red Electrica de Puerto Rico y Transicion a Energia 100% Renovable (PR100): Actualizacion de Progreso de Seis Meses [Slides]

Puerto Rico se ha comprometido a satisfacer sus necesidades de electricidad con un 100% de energia renovable para 2050, junto con el cumplimiento de objetivos intermedios del 40% para 2025, el 60% para 2040, la eliminacion gradual de la generacion a base de carbon para 2028, y una mejora del 30% en la eficiencia energetica para 2040, segun lo establecido en la Ley de Politica Publica Energetica de Puerto Rico (Ley 17). Desde los huracanes Irma y Maria en septiembre de 2017, DOE y sus laboratorios nacionales han proporcionado a las partes interesadas del sistema energetico de Puerto Rico herramientas, adiestramiento y apoyo de modelaje para permitir la planificacion y el funcionamiento de la red electrica con mas resiliencia frente a nuevas interrupciones. El 2 de febrero de 2022, DOE, FEMA y seis laboratorios nacionales lanzaron el Estudio de Resiliencia de la Red Electrica de Puerto Rico y Transicion a la Energia 100% Renovable (PR100), de dos anos de duracion, para llevar a cabo un analisis exhaustivo de las vias impulsadas por las partes interesadas para el futuro energetico de Puerto Rico. El analisis energetico, solido y objetivo, comprende cinco actividades, con enfasis en la confiabilidad del sistema electrico, la resiliencia y la planificacion de la generacion. Esta presentacion provee una actualizacion de progreso del trabajo de seis meses sobre el Estudio, incluyendo la presentacion de cuatro escenarios iniciales definidos mediante un rol activo de las partes interesadas. This is the Spanish translation of NREL/PR-6A20-83432.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

PR100: Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transition to 100% Renewable Energy

The Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) comprehensively analyzes possible pathways for Puerto Rico to achieve its renewable energy goals while incorporating stakeholder perspectives and advancing energy resilience for all Puerto Ricans. PR100 is a wide-ranging and in-depth examination of Puerto Rico's energy system investment options. The findings are the culmination of two years of stakeholder engagement, scenario modeling, and impact analysis. The PR100 report and Implementation Roadmap contain a range of results and actions that reflect Puerto Rico's priorities around energy justice, resilience, and reliability. Led by the U.S. Department of Energy's Grid Deployment Office with funding from the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the PR100 study leveraged and integrated dozens of best-in-class models and in-depth analyses from researchers across six national laboratories: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (which led the study), along with Argonne National Laboratory, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratories (which conducted the study). For more information, please see the "PR100 Project Website" resource below.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2022

PV Reference Cells for Outdoor Use: Comparison of First-Year Field Measurements

Reference cells are widely used in the photovoltaic (PV) industry to measure irradiance. For field applications and outdoor use, a variety of products are on the market, and they are often perceived as low-cost alternatives to thermopile pyranometers. But reference cell characteristics, such as directional and spectral response, fundamentally differ from pyranometers, and measurements made by the former cannot be substituted for or directly compared with the latter. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Solar Radiation Research Laboratory is currently in a multiyear effort to develop guidance and recommendations for the design and use of outdoor reference cells, with a view to reducing inconsistencies and measurement uncertainty. The core of this effort is the long-term deployment of multiple products from different manufacturers that are mounted at a fixed tilt, on a single-axis tracker, and on a dual-axis tracker. This report provides an analysis of the data collected during the first year of operation at the NREL location. An overall assessment is made by comparing the total energy measured by each instrument to the other instruments having the same orientation. These totals are calculated for three different scenarios: (1) using the factory calibration factors, (2) using the previously determined NREL Cell Lab calibration factors, and (3) using the newly determined field calibration factors derived from the recorded measurements. Because the true or correct measurement values are unknown, pair-wise comparisons are made. The results show that the difference between the highest and lowest measured energy can exceed 3% when using the factory calibration factors. Consistency among instruments improves when Cell Lab calibrations are used, and it further improves when using field calibration factors.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) Final Report: Fiscal Years 2019-2021

The Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is a world-leading solar calibration and measurement facility and maintains and disseminates the World Radiation Reference (essentially the W/m 2 ) for the United States, which is essential for traceable and accurate measurements of solar radiation at all solar generation facilities. SRRL operates two International Organization for Standardization (ISO)/International Electrotechincal Commission (IEC) 17025 calibration facilities that provide unique, high-quality calibrations to NREL and other U.S. Department of Energy laboratories. The Baseline Measurement System at SRRL provides a high-quality record of solar irradiance and surface meteorological conditions. SRRL capabilities are used to develop: improved methods for the calibration of solar radiometers; new standards through the ISO, the IEC, and ASTM International; models; advanced instrumentation and methods for operating solar measurement stations. The SRRL data sets are also critical for the validation of new models and data sets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic Cloud Optimized Day-Ahead Forecasting System Based on WRF-Solar (Final Report)

The most persistent challenge in both intraday and day-ahead solar forecasting is to get numerical weather prediction models to produce the right type of clouds with the right frequency at the right time and place. Another challenge is to understand and communicate the forecast uncertainty. The objective of this project was to develop an optimized ensemble-based solar irradiance forecasting system that will (1) demonstrably improve the current state-of-the-art solar forecasts from the deterministic Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar (WRF-Solar) model and (2) provide probabilistic forecasts for grid operations. This probabilistic solar forecasting system, referred to as the WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS), aims to significantly enhance both the intraday and the day-ahead solar forecasting capability for grid operations. This technical report summarizes the work performed in the past 3 years through a collaboration between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research as part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Forecasting 2 program that aims to improve the accuracy of solar energy forecasts and enable increased deployment of solar energy on the electric grid.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The “Fresnel Equations” for Diffuse radiation on Inclined photovoltaic Surfaces (FEDIS)

Here the well-known Fresnel equations solve for the reflection and transmission of light for precise incident angles. The transmission of diffuse radiation incident on a planar or domed surface is often needed for real-world applications. Due to the complexity of the Fresnel equations, the analytical solution of the integration has hitherto been unobtainable over the last centuries. Therefore, this problem was numerically solved by integrating the angular transmittances in space often leading to substantial computing burden and bias in the results. To efficiently estimate the solar energy resource for a glass-covered photovoltaic (PV) module, we derive an analytical solution of diffuse transmission based on the rigorous integration of an alternate form of the Fresnel equations. The approach leads to a simple yet accurate relative transmittance model that reconciles the solar energy sensed by pyranometers and PV panels. With limited and clearly stated approximations, the complex mathematical derivation resulted in an elegant solution. An experiment using 1-year of data at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) shows that the new model dramatically decreases the disparity between the solar radiation measurements by a Kipp and Zonen CM Pyranometer 22 (CMP22) and an IMT reference cell on a 1-axis tracking system. The solution in this paper can be widely used in scientific and engineering research, development, and applications wherever the Fresnel equations are used.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Satellite-Based Solar Forecasting Including Maintenance of Computer and Storage Equipment at CSU/CIRA (CRADA Final Report)

The Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) at Colorado State University (CSU) proposes to continue its research partnership with the NREL in Golden, CO. The partnership resonates with the goals outlined in a Memorandum of Understanding between the Department of Energy and the Department of Commerce (with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)) signed in 2011. This CRADA will sustain the research partnership and provide an avenue and resources for ongoing collaborations, including the maintenance of NREL-furnished computer and storage equipment at CSU/CIRA. There is no formal exchange of funds in this CRADA; support above and beyond the in-kind items outlined in this document will come on a best-effort basis and/or in association with formal sponsored-research enabled collaborations. The research conducted under this CRADA continues to work toward enabling and improving short-term solar energy forecasting as developed under previous CIRA/CSU and NREL collaborations, with specific focus on point-based (e.g., solar farm) forecasting on the 1-3 hour timeframe. Under the best-effort actions during the CRADA period, technical maintenance of CIRA's existing satellite-based solar forecasting algorithm ("CIRACast"; Miller et al., 2017) was continued to maintain operability with evolving datasets. These efforts benefit the public by maintaining national capability for point solar forecasting using geostationary observation platforms, and laying the groundwork for future technical improvements as opportunities arise.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the WRF-Solar Model Performance Using Satellite-Derived Irradiance from the National Solar Radiation Database

Abstract WRF-Solar is a numerical weather prediction model specifically designed to meet the increasing demand for accurate solar irradiance forecasting. The model provides flexibility in the representation of the aerosol–cloud–radiation processes. This flexibility can be argued to make it more difficult to improve the model’s performance because of the necessity of inspecting different configurations. To alleviate this situation, WRF-Solar has a reference configuration to use as a benchmark in sensitivity experiments. However, the scarcity of high-quality ground observations is a handicap to accurately quantify the model performance. An alternative to ground observations are satellite irradiance retrievals. Herein we analyze the adequacy of the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to validate the WRF-Solar performance using high-quality global horizontal irradiance (GHI) observations across the contiguous United States (CONUS). Based on the sufficient performance of NSRDB, we further analyze the WRF-Solar forecast errors across the CONUS, the growth of the forecasting errors as a function of the lead time, and sensitivities to the grid spacing and the representation of the radiative effects of unresolved clouds. Our results based on WRF-Solar forecasts spanning 2018 reveal a 7% median degradation of the mean absolute error (MAE) from the first to the second daytime period. Reducing the grid spacing from 9 to 3 km leads to a 4% improvement in the MAE, whereas activating the radiative effects of unresolved clouds is desirable over most of the CONUS even at 3 km of grid spacing. A systematic overestimation of the GHI is found. These results illustrate the potential of GHI retrievals to contribute to increasing the WRF-Solar performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-guided machine learning for improved accuracy of the National Solar Radiation Database

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) provides high-resolution spatiotemporal solar irradiance data for the entire globe. The NSRDB uses a two-step Physical Solar Model (PSM) to compute the effects of clouds and other atmospheric variables on the solar radiation reaching the surface of the Earth. Physical and optical cloud properties are fundamental inputs to the PSM and are derived from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites. This paper describes recent improvements to the NSRDB driven by physics-guided machine learning methods for cloud property retrieval. The impacts of these new methods on the NSRDB irradiance data are validated using an extensive set of ground measurement sites, showing significant improvement for all sites. We report on average, the mean absolute percentage error for global horizontal irradiance and direct normal irradiance show reductions of 2.16 and 3.95 percentage points respectively for all daylight conditions, 5.92 and 17.39 percentage points respectively for cloudy conditions, and 9.00 and 22.59 percentage points respectively for gap-filled cloudy conditions. These new methods will help improve the quality and accuracy of the irradiance and cloud data in the NSRDB.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development and Validation of Southeast Asia Solar Resource Data [Slides]

Lack of access to high-quality, publicly available, time series solar data to inform decisions that will transform energy sectors in Southeast Asia is a challenge. The solution is to level the playing field by offering free, high-quality, robust solar data to inform private sector investment and policymaking. This is done by (1) leveraging deep NREL expertise in atmospheric science, solar resource assessment, high-performance computing, and cloud-based data dissemination, (2) producing and validating high spatial and temporal resolution solar resource data, (3) making data available on the USAID-funded global Renewable Energy Data Explorer platform, (4) providing capacity building for data and applications, and (5) informing future demand-driven tool development.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Short-Term Solar Forecasting Platform Using a Physics-Based Smart Persistence Model and Data Imputation Method

Electrical energy plays vital role in our socio-economic activity and therefore ensuring the reliability of the electric grid, from the generation, transmission and distribution level is critical. In order to maintain the power system parameter viz., frequency, voltage, etc., optimally, balancing of generation and consumption is very much essential. However, solar energy is infirm power by nature this is due to cloud cover / other local phenomena. Hence, Photovoltaic (PV) power generation brings a significant challenge to the grid operator due to the variability of the solar energy. The complexity of this challenge in terms of planning and dispatch ability of PV resources, aggravates with the high penetration of solar energy into the electric grid. In this setting, reliable solar radiation forecasting models based on accurate and quality input data become essential. In order to develop a suitable model for predicting solar radiation, quality historical / real time measurement is also needed. Under this study NIWE and NREL jointly developed / tested short-term solar forecasting frameworks using a smart persistence and physics-based smart persistence models for intra-hour forecasting of solar radiation (PSPI) and benchmarked 9 different data imputation techniques in 15 Solar Radiation Resource Assessment (SRRA) stations, located at different parts of India. During any measurement campaign, due to various technical reasons, we may miss few observations. However, the missing observation often reduce the performance of any forecasting model. Therefore, suitable data imputation method would assist us to obtain continuous observation of solar radiation. A station-by-station and method-by-method analysis was carried out to understand the performance of each model. Based on our analysis, among all the data imputation methods, the Kalman data imputation method is better for Indian Weather condition. In addition, Kalman StructTS, Linear, Stine and Arima methods yield slightly inferior accuracy compared to Kalman, but outperform the other methods. The extended solar radiation data are used by solar forecasting models to provide the prediction of solar radiation at 15 SRRA stations. As far as short term forecasting model is concerned, the PSPI model outperforms the Smart Persistence model. However, the forecast error is increases with the forecasting horizon.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improving the prediction of DNI with physics-based representation of all-sky circumsolar radiation

Direct normal irradiance (DNI) is often interpreted differently in ground measurements and forecasts using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, leading to substantial bias in DNI forecasting especially under cloudy-sky conditions. To mitigate the bias, we use the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with DNI (FARMS-DNI) to conduct physics-based simulations of solar radiation in the circumsolar region. The DNI is quantified using the sum of the radiation along the sun direction and the scattered radiation within the circumsolar region. FARMS-DNI is coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar) to predict day-ahead DNI in 9-km pixels over an extended domain covering the contiguous United States. The DNI forecasts for the entire year of 2018 are validated using surface-based observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) and Surface Radiation Budget Network (SURFRAD) sites and a satellite-based solar radiation product developed by the procedure of the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB). The results show that the WRF-Solar coupled with the conventional Beer-Bouguer-Lambert law underestimes the overall DNI forecasts by 30%-60%, which is a joint effect of the uncertainties in computing the circumsolar radiation and forecasting cloud properties. This bias is significantly reduced by using FARMS-DNI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System to Provide Solar Irradiance Probabilistic Forecasts

In this study, we introduce the recently developed WRF-solar ensemble prediction system and a calibration method. The performances of forecast models are evaluated using the National Solar Radiation Database observational analysis for day-ahead solar irradiance predictions. The results demonstrate that the ensemble forecast improves the quality of the forecasts by considering the uncertainty of each ensemble member. The analog ensemble calibration contributed to the reduction of positive bias and an overall improvement in the probabilistic attributes, such as reliability and statistical consistency.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Time-Series Gap-Filling Methods for Solar Irradiance Applications

A complete solar resource data set is essential for any stage of a solar energy project - from feasibility studies to daily operations. But measured or modeled solar resource data are prone to data gaps and data quality issues. To mitigate these issues, a data imputation process should be implemented to obtain a complete and reliable temporal and spatial data series. This study focused on imputing temporal scales by applying random and artificial data gaps and then implementing eight imputation methods, including the Kalman filtering and smoothing and stine interpolations. These methods were implemented on 1-minute to half hourly irradiance data for 1 year using a few locations from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) and ground measurement data set. The results demonstrated that some of the simpler methods, such as the stine and linear interpolation methods, were the relatively best models based on the statistical metrics for imputing NSRDB and ground measurement data, respectively.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗