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Sergi, Brian

Publications and source records attributed to Sergi, Brian.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Solar and Storage Integration in the U.S. Southeast: Implications for Resource Adequacy

Resource adequacy concerns may be very different in electricity systems that have higher levels of solar and storage, requiring changes to existing planning models. This study explores a novel approach to evaluating resource adequacy under future scenarios with higher solar and storage in the Southeast U.S. It uses NREL’s Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Suite (PRAS), a collection of probabilistic resource adequacy modeling tools, and compares results when interacting PRAS and a portfolio planning tool with a more traditional modeling approach. The results suggest that traditional models perform reasonably well with lower levels of solar PV, but at higher levels of solar probabilistic tools better capture the changes in resource adequacy concerns—such as winter energy availability—associated with higher solar systems. This is the final study in the Preparing Southeast Markets for Reliable and Affordable Integration of Solar into Operations and Planning project. Two prior reports can be found at: Solar and Storage Integration in the Southeastern United States: Economics, Reliability, and Operations. https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/solar-and-storage-integration Solar and Wind Forecast Error Reserve Sharing in a Multi-Utility Region. https://eta-publications.lbl.gov/sites/default/files/2024-11/multiutility_fe_reserve_sharing_final.pdf

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar and Wind Forecast Error Reserve Sharing in a Multi-Utility Region

As electricity systems transition to higher levels of solar and wind generation, electric system operators will likely need to hold additional reserves to manage solar and wind forecast error. Because solar and wind forecast errors tend to be weakly correlated across space, system operators can reduce their reserve requirements by sharing reserves. This paper examines the benefits of forecast error reserve sharing among balancing areas in the Southeastern United States, in scenarios in which solar and wind generation ranges from 34% to 65% of total generation. It finds that day-ahead forecast error reserve requirements increase linearly with growth in solar and wind generation capacity (6%-10% of total capacity), but that reserve sharing can significantly reduce these requirements (by 6%-29%). It finds that, in economic terms, the value of forecast error reserve sharing ($\$$0.09-$\$$1.24 billion per year, $\$$0.12-$\$$1.68/MWh of load across scenarios) tends to decline with higher levels of solar and wind generation, due to lower reserve and energy prices. Even with declines in reserve prices, forecast error reserve sharing can still provide substantial value, though with higher levels of solar, wind, and electricity storage this value is increasingly tied to avoiding scarcity prices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar and Wind Forecast Error Reserve Sharing in a Multi-Utility Region

As electricity systems transition to higher levels of solar and wind generation, electric system operators will likely need to hold additional reserves to manage the forecast error associated with these resources. Because wind and solar forecast errors tend to be poorly correlated across space, system operators can reduce their reserve requirements by sharing reserves. This paper examines the value of forecast error reserve sharing among balancing areas in the Southeast United States. It finds that forecast error reserve requirements increase linearly with growth in solar and wind generation capacity but that reserve sharing can significantly reduce physical (MW) reserve requirements (from 25%-26% to 18%-19% of average load in high solar scenarios). It finds that the value of forecast error reserve sharing declines with higher levels of solar and wind generation, due to lower wholesale energy and reserve prices. Even with declines in wholesale prices, forecast error reserve sharing can still provide substantial value (as much as $\$$400 million per year in a high solar scenario), though with higher levels of solar, wind, and electricity storage, this value is increasingly tied to avoiding scarcity prices. The results suggest the importance of coordinated capacity expansion planning for forecast error reserve sharing.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar and Storage Integration in the Southeastern United States: Economics, Reliability, and Operations

Solar energy has the potential to be a core energy resource for the southeastern United States. To better understand the implications of higher levels of solar PV (27%-43% of total generation capacity) and electricity storage (13%-49% of peak load) would affect electricity system reliability, costs, and operations in the U.S. Southeast, this study sought to address two main questions. First, how would higher levels of solar PV and electricity storage impact the costs, reliability, and operations of electricity systems in the Southeast in 2035? Second, at different levels of solar PV and electricity storage, what are the benefits of operational coordination among utilities in the Southeast, through more efficient regional dispatch and sharing operating reserves? To answer these questions, the study used detailed capacity expansion and dispatch modeling to develop and examine 15 scenarios with different levels of solar PV, electricity storage, and operational coordination, focusing on the year 2035. The study also evaluates the benefits of operational coordination among utilities through more efficient regional dispatch and reserve sharing, at different levels of solar and storage. The study focuses on five balancing regions that cover Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and parts of Mississippi and Missouri.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar and Storage Integration in the Southeastern United States: Economics, Reliability, and Operations

Solar energy has the potential to be a core energy resource for the southeastern United States. To better understand the implications of higher levels of solar PV (27%-43% of total generation capacity) and electricity storage (13%-49% of peak load) would affect electricity system reliability, costs, and operations in the U.S. Southeast, this study sought to address two main questions. First, how would higher levels of solar PV and electricity storage impact the costs, reliability, and operations of electricity systems in the Southeast in 2035? Second, at different levels of solar PV and electricity storage, what are the benefits of operational coordination among utilities in the Southeast, through more efficient regional dispatch and sharing operating reserves? To answer these questions, the study used detailed capacity expansion and dispatch modeling to develop and examine 15 scenarios with different levels of solar PV, electricity storage, and operational coordination, focusing on the year 2035. The study also evaluates the benefits of operational coordination among utilities through more efficient regional dispatch and reserve sharing, at different levels of solar and storage. The study focuses on five balancing regions that cover Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and parts of Mississippi and Missouri.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar, Wind, and Load Forecasting Dataset for MISO, NYISO, and SPP Balancing Areas

The Performance-based Energy Resource Feedback, Optimization, and Risk Management (PERFORM) program is an initiative intended to foster "a fundamental shift in grid management rooted in an understanding of asset risk and system risk" (ARPA-E 2020). Launched by the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E), the program supports efforts to incorporate uncertainty in electric power decision making. In support of PERFORM, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has produced a set of time-coincident forecasts of solar, wind, and load profiles. As part of Phase I of the PERFORM effort, NREL created a dataset that consists of one year of time-coincident load, wind, and solar actuals and probabilistic forecasts based on data from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) (Bryce et al. 2023). In Phase II, NREL developed similar datasets for three other U.S. Independent System Operators (ISO): the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), and the Southwest Power Pool (SPP).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar Photovoltaics and Land-Based Wind Technical Potential and Supply Curves for the Contiguous United States (2023 Edition)

Estimates of the potential of renewable energy are essential for understanding how we can decarbonize our electric grid and economy. They provide key data for policymakers, land managers, and energy modelers by defining the quantity, quality, and cost of renewable resources. However, estimating renewable energy potential is challenging and requires frequent updates because of rapid advances in technology, cost reductions, and uncertainty about developable land that are due to social, regulatory, and environmental factors. Additionally, the complex processes involved in renewable energy development require regular reviews of methods and assumptions, which can also impact our understanding of renewable potential. In this, the 2023 edition of this annual report, we present new estimates of the technical potential for land-based wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) for the contiguous United States (CONUS). We also provide cost estimates for the available resources, presenting representative supply curves that can be used in downstream modeling and analysis. Additionally, we introduce the new methodologies used to estimate wind capacity, wind energy losses, transmission cost and representation, updated technology cost and design, and scenarios of siting constraints designed to help bound the uncertainty of renewable potential.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

U.S. Wind and Solar PV Supply Curves with Future Land-use Change

This dataset provides future supply curves representing the total resource potential for land-based wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment in the conterminous United States after accounting for the impact of land-use and land-cover change (LULC). We use LULC projections from 2010 to 2050 developed based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios. The LULC projections are subsequently fed into the renewable energy potential model (reV), which estimates total available wind and solar capacity after excluding non-developable land. Supply curves are provided for four IPCC scenarios in 2050: A1B, A2, B1, and B2. As a baseline, we also provide the supply curve from the B2 scenario in 2010. In addition to the supply curves, we also provide representative wind and solar generation profiles for each supply curve point. These generation profiles are provided as capacity factors and are based on a 2012 weather year using NSRDB and WindToolkit resource data. For more details on the supply curve and profile datasets included here please refer to README. Additional information on the supply curves and the LULC projections used to generate them, as well as an analysis of their impact on wind and solar deployment under decarbonization can be found in the publication linked below: "U.S. Wind and Solar PV Supply Curves with Future Land-use Change Publication".

Array↗
DOE OSTI2024

2023 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

This report, originally published in December 2023, has been revised in January 2024. There were three changes in the revision. First, Anthony Lopez was added as a contributing author, as he had been erroneously omitted in the original publication. Second, in appendix section A.1 the cost of upgrading a hydrogen combustion turbine from a natural gas turbine was erroneously reported as 20% when it should have been 33%. Lastly, appendix Figure A-8 was erroneously a duplication of the same figure from the Standard Scenarios 2022, it has now been updated to reflect this year’s data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Phase 1: Duke Energy Zero Emission Resource Integration Study (ZERIS); Phase 2: Carbon-Free Resource Integration Study for Duke Energy (Final Report)

Phase 1: This statement of work makes up Phase 1 of a larger effort. During this Phase 1 effort, NREL will work with Duke Energy to analyze the impacts of integrating significant amounts of new solar power into the Duke Energy power system under a variety of different penetrations scenarios, with a maximum of ten (10) full scenarios examined. The existing fleet, particularly the nuclear generation, will be considered in the quantitative assessments and discussions. Duke Energy is looking to quantify how much solar generation its system can handle. NREL will work with Duke Energy to quantify solar potential, identify likely integration challenges and possible opportunities for wind, storage, demand side resources and other technologies. Phase 2: This Statement of Work consists of a follow-up effort (Phase 2) to a recently completed Phase 1 modeling effort. During Phase 2, NREL will work closely with Duke Energy to analyze the impacts of integrating significant amounts of variable generation resources (wind and solar) and storage into Duke Energy's system in the Carolinas. The existing fleet, particularly nuclear generation, will be considered in the quantitative assessment and discussions. This Statement of Work also includes an extension to Phase II of the Carbon-Free Resource Integration Study for Duke Energy. In this extension, NREL will work closely with Duke Energy to extend the production cost analysis developed in Phase II to 2018 weather and load data for Duke Energy's territory. This extension leverages the modeling tools and datasets developed as part of Phase II. The analysis will compare results from Phase II (using 2012 weather and load) with 2018 results to assess system operations with increased penetration of renewables and storage. Simplifying assumptions will be made for modeling Duke Energy's neighbors in the production cost model.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

County-Level Hourly Renewable Capacity Factor Dataset for the ReEDS Model

This dataset contains hourly capacity factors for each renewable resource class and region (in this case, county). Technologies like large-scale utility PV (UPV), onshore wind, offshore wind, and concentrating solar power (CSP) are included. The dataset contains 7 years of hourly weather data (2007-2013) for different sites across the US and is used as one of the inputs to the ReEDS-2.0 model (see the "ReEDS 2.0 GitHub Repository" resource link below), developed by NREL. The weather profiles apply to any capacity that exists or is built in each region and class. This helps calculate the generation that can be provided using these resources. Open, reference, and limited are 3 scenarios based on land-use allowance, derived from the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model developed by NREL, which helps generate supply curves for renewable technologies and assess the maximum potential of renewable resources in a designated area. Each zipped file in this dataset corresponds to a technology and contains the respective land-use scenario files required to run that technology in ReEDS. To use this dataset, download and place the extracted files in the locally cloned ReEDS repository inside one of the folders (inputs/variability/multi_year). After completing this copy, upon running the ReEDS model at the county-level spatial resolution for respective analysis purposes, the program will detect the presence of these files and will not fail.

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DOE OSTI2023

The Hidden Flexibility of the Natural Gas Network for Electric Power Operations: A Case Study of a Near-Miss Winter Event

The U.S. power sector has become increasingly reliant on gas pipeline networks to deliver fuel to natural gas power plants. In addition to supplying relatively low-cost fuel, gas networks offer generators flexibility in their operations through the ability to deliver fuel when needed by using gas storage facilities or linepack if the gas network is at an operating point below its design capacity. However, disruptions or stress events on the gas network - like those occurring in the Northeast and Texas in recent years - can result in limitations on gas availability to generators at times when generation is in short supply. Here we examine a period of stress that occurred in the winter of 2022 in the Western United States. Using data on the region's natural gas pipeline network and electric generators, we build an integrated gas and electric model that closely replicates the actual dispatch of the period. We then evaluate the implications of removing flexibility employed by the gas network operator, which during that period curtailed scheduled gas deliveries to other parties to increase deliveries to natural gas power plants, which requested more gas than initially forecasted. We find that without the flexibility supplied by the gas network operator, there would have been curtailment of gas generation due to gas offtake constraints, requiring the power system operator to redispatch relying on more expensive generation or to potentially shed load. A sensitivity exploring a wind drought further exacerbates the strain, illustrating the potential challenge of managing gas and grid interactions as systems move to higher shares of variable renewable electricity. Based on this example, we discuss potential coordination strategies between the two system operators to ensure that the power system can successfully utilize and rely on the flexibility offered by natural gas networks.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2023

2022 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

This report documents the eighth edition of the annual Standard Scenarios. It summarizes 70 forward-looking scenarios of the U.S. electricity sector that have been designed to capture a wide range of possible futures. In August 2022, the United States Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a law aimed at accelerating U.S. decarbonization, clean energy manufacturing, and deployment of new power and end-use technologies. This year’s scenarios include representations of the main electricity-sector provisions from IRA and the potential impact on electricity demand. The Standard Scenarios are simulated using the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which projects utility-scale electricity sector evolution for the contiguous United States using a system-wide, least-cost approach subject to policy and operational constraints. A subset of the scenarios are simulated in the PLEXOS production cost model to obtain a broader suite of metrics at the hourly resolution, which are made available through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) annual Cambium data sets. The scenarios can be viewed and downloaded from NREL’s Scenario Viewer. Annual results are available for the full suite of scenarios in the Standard Scenarios projects in the viewer, whereas the Cambium projects contain hourly data for a subset of scenarios. The Standard Scenarios includes a scenario called the Mid-case, which has central or median values for core inputs such as technology costs and fuel prices, moderately paced demand growth averaging 1.3% per year, and electricity sector policies as they existed in September 2022 (including IRA). The remaining 69 scenarios are created by varying inputs such as technology and fuel prices, resource availability, demand growth, whether nascent generation technologies are allowed, and by introducing national decarbonization constraints.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A review of technical and regulatory limits for hydrogen blending in natural gas pipelines

We report there is rising interest globally in the use of hydrogen for the provision of electricity or heat to industry, transport, and other applications in low-carbon energy systems. While there is attention to build out dedicated hydrogen infrastructure in the long-term, blending hydrogen into the existing natural gas pipeline network is also thought to be a promising strategy for incorporating hydrogen in the near-term. However, hydrogen injection into the existing gas grid poses additional challenges and considerations related to the ability of current gas infrastructure to operate with blended hydrogen levels. This review paper focuses on analyzing the current understanding of how much hydrogen can be integrated into the gas grid from an operational perspective and identifies areas where more research is needed. The review discusses the technical limits in hydrogen blending for both transmission and distribution networks; facilities in both systems are analyzed with respect to critical operational parameters, such as decrease in energy density, increased flow speed and pressure losses. Safety related challenges such as, embrittlement, leakage and combustion are also discussed. The review also summarizes current regulatory limits to hydrogen blending in different countries, including ongoing or proposed pilot hydrogen blending projects.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Examining Supply-Side Options to Achieve 100% Clean Electricity by 2035

The growing climate emergency requires a dramatic and rapid reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the United States and internationally. This study evaluates a variety of 100% clean electricity system scenarios in 2035 that could put the United States on a path to economy-wide net-zero emissions by 2050, specifically focusing on technical requirements, challenges, and cost implications. The results highlight there are multiple approaches to cost-effectively achieve a net-zero carbon grid in 2035.

100% clean electricity↗