Engineering topics

Shaman, Jeffrey

Publications and source records attributed to Shaman, Jeffrey.

3 records

DOE OSTI2024

Challenges of COVID-19 Case Forecasting in the US, 2020–2021

During the COVID-19 pandemic, forecasting COVID-19 trends to support planning and response was a priority for scientists and decision makers alike. In the United States, COVID-19 forecasting was coordinated by a large group of universities, companies, and government entities led by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org ). We evaluated approximately 9.7 million forecasts of weekly state-level COVID-19 cases for predictions 1–4 weeks into the future submitted by 24 teams from August 2020 to December 2021. We assessed coverage of central prediction intervals and weighted interval scores (WIS), adjusting for missing forecasts relative to a baseline forecast, and used a Gaussian generalized estimating equation (GEE) model to evaluate differences in skill across epidemic phases that were defined by the effective reproduction number. Overall, we found high variation in skill across individual models, with ensemble-based forecasts outperforming other approaches. Forecast skill relative to the baseline was generally higher for larger jurisdictions (e.g., states compared to counties). Over time, forecasts generally performed worst in periods of rapid changes in reported cases (either in increasing or decreasing epidemic phases) with 95% prediction interval coverage dropping below 50% during the growth phases of the winter 2020, Delta, and Omicron waves. Ideally, case forecasts could serve as a leading indicator of changes in transmission dynamics. However, while most COVID-19 case forecasts outperformed a naïve baseline model, even the most accurate case forecasts were unreliable in key phases. Further research could improve forecasts of leading indicators, like COVID-19 cases, by leveraging additional real-time data, addressing performance across phases, improving the characterization of forecast confidence, and ensuring that forecasts were coherent across spatial scales. In the meantime, it is critical for forecast users to appreciate current limitations and use a broad set of indicators to inform pandemic-related decision making.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2016

Extreme Weather and Climate: Workshop Report

Extreme events are the aspects of climate to which human society is most sensitive. Due to both their severity and their rarity, extreme events can challenge the capacity of physical, social, economic and political infrastructures, turning natural events into human disasters. Yet, because they are low frequency events, the science of extreme events is very challenging. Among the challenges is the difficulty of connecting extreme events to longer-term, large-scale variability and trends in the climate system, including anthropogenic climate change. How can we best quantify the risks posed by extreme weather events, both in the current climate and in the warmer and different climates to come? How can we better predict them? What can we do to reduce the harm done by such events? In response to these questions, the Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate has been created at Columbia University in New York City (extreme weather.columbia.edu). This Initiative is a University-wide activity focused on understanding the risks to human life, property, infrastructure, communities, institutions, ecosystems, and landscapes from extreme weather events, both in the present and future climates, and on developing solutions to mitigate those risks. In May 2015,the Initiative held its first science workshop, entitled Extreme Weather and Climate: Hazards, Impacts, Actions. The purpose of the workshop was to define the scope of the Initiative and tremendously broad intellectual footprint of the topic indicated by the titles of the presentations (see Table 1). The intent of the workshop was to stimulate thought across disciplinary lines by juxtaposing talks whose subjects differed dramatically. Each session concluded with question and answer panel sessions. Approximately, 150 people were in attendance throughout the day. Below is a brief synopsis of each presentation. The synopses collectively reflect the variety and richness of the emerging extreme event research agenda.

extreme weather events↗

NASA NTRS2001

Representation of Stormflow and a More Responsive Water Table in a TOPMODEL-Based Hydrology Model

This study presents two new modeling strategies. First, a methodology for representing the physical process of stormflow within a TOPMODEL framework is developed. In using this approach, discharge at quickflow time scales is simulated and a fuller depiction of hydrologic activity is brought about. Discharge of water from the vadose zone is permitted in a physically realistic manner without a priori assumption of the level within the soil column at which stormflow saturation can take place. Determination of the stormflow contribution to discharge is made using the equation for groundwater flow. No new parameters are needed. Instead, regions of near saturation that develop during storm events, producing vertical recharge, are allowed to contribute to soil column discharge. These stormflow contributions to river runoff, as for groundwater flow contributions, are a function of catchment topography and local hydraulic conductivity at the depth of these regions of near saturation. The second approach improves groundwater flow response through a reduction of porosity and field capacity with depth in the soil column. Large storm events are better captured and a more dynamic water table develops with application of this modified soil column profile (MSCP). The MSCP predominantly reflects soil depth differences in upland and lowland regions of a watershed. Combined, these two approaches - stormflow and the MSCP - provide a more accurate representation of the time scales at which soil column discharge responds and a more complete depiction of hydrologic activity. Storm events large and small are better simulated, and some of the biases previously evident in TOPMODEL simulations are reduced.

Shaman, Jeffrey↗