Engineering topics

Shaun A Deacon

Publications and source records attributed to Shaun A Deacon.

5 records

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Modified Delphi Method to Accelerate Consensus Building in Expert Judgment Elicitation

The 2017 Earth Science Decadal Survey recommends the implementation of a novel Earth Observing mission to study Aerosols, Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation. The assessment of the candidate architectures under consideration requires the use of Expert Judgment Elicitation. Some of the assessment scores are obtained through consensus among the Science Leadership Team. A modified Delphi method was developed to accelerate the consensus building process and reduce the number of cycles required to converge. This paper discusses which elements of the traditional method were modified, how the method was applied, and the impact of the modifications on generating consensus.

Expert Judgement↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Visualizations to Aid Decision-Making in the ACCP Value Framework

NASA’s priorities for Earth Science are informed by the 2017-2027 Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications from Space of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine. In that document, five Designated Observables are identified as priorities for research, two of which are Aerosols, and Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation. NASA is addressing these two Designated Observables by a combined study (the Aerosols, Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation, or ACCP, study). In this context of the ACCP study’s multiple objectives and multiple stakeholders, heuristic-based approaches are insufficient to assess candidate observing system concepts due to the complexity of the decision problem. For the ACCP study, this complexity in assessment is such that absent a structured approach that permits understanding of the steps leading to a decision, the decision risks being made on an incomplete basis. While prose and numeric data both have their place in effective communication, visualizations play an important part not only in presenting information, but also in structuring conversations around that information. Each of the visualizations developed for the ACCP Value Framework serve at least one of several functions: it structures communication about a method or process, it facilitates the elicitation and aggregation of data, or it summarizes complex information to enable analysis. Thus, these visualizations can present information, structure conversations, or do both.

Christopher A Jones↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Modified Delphi Method to Accelerate Consensus Building in Expert Judgment Elicitation

Expert Judgment↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Visualizations to Aid Decision-Making in the ACCP Value Framework

The Aerosols, Clouds, Convection, and Precipitation Value Framework is used to introduce structure, transparency, and traceability into the decision-making process for a study formulating and assessing potential observing system concepts to respond to the 2017-2027 Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications. Within the Value Framework, visualizations play an important role in presenting information and structuring conversations around that information. This paper describes three guiding principles that were applied to the design of the visualizations of the Value Framework, presents examples of visualizations that serve at least one of several functions (structuring communication, facilitating elicitation and aggregation of data, and summarizing complex information), and identifies lessons learned from the development and implementation of those visualizations. The guiding principles and lessons learned have not only contributed to the success of the Value Framework and the ACCP study, but also can be applied in other decision-making activities.

Christopher A Jones↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Methodology for Reliability Assessments of Arbitrary Satellite Constellations

The commercial success of small satellite development and multi-satellite missions has led to constellation missions being proposed in every sector of the market. This paradigm shift has the potential to enable more capable and cost-effective space science missions. However, these novel approaches to space missions have outstripped existing policy and analysis methods for assessing the reliability of multi-satellite missions. Mission designers and decisionmakers need new methods and standards for modeling how the reliability of constituent spacecraft elements affect the aggregate reliability of constellations across a wide range of concepts and application-specific requirements. The Space Mission Analysis Branch at NASA’s Langley Research Center has developed a methodology for simulating the on-orbit reliability of arbitrary spacecraft constellations. In this paper, the authors describe the methodology and provides examples of how it can be used to evaluate specific constellation designs. To demonstrate the flexibility of the approach, several different constellation configurations are considered, including both homogenous and heterogenous designs. Next, the authors demonstrate the ability to perform broad parameter sweeps to develop greater insight into the intrinsic reliability trends associated with constellation concepts. Finally, the authors provide tables and novel data graphics which enable decisionmakers to quickly discern the relationships between constellation sizes, topologies, replenishment strategies, and overall constellation reliability.

satellite↗