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Sherry, Lance

Publications and source records attributed to Sherry, Lance.

Metroplex Optimization Model Expansion and Analysis: The Airline Fleet, Route, and Schedule Optimization Model (AFRS-OM)

This report describes the Airline Fleet, Route, and Schedule Optimization Model (AFRS-OM) that is designed to provide insights into airline decision-making with regards to markets served, schedule of flights on these markets, the type of aircraft assigned to each scheduled flight, load factors, airfares, and airline profits. The main inputs to the model are hedged fuel prices, airport capacity limits, and candidate markets. Embedded in the model are aircraft performance and associated cost factors, and willingness-to-pay (i.e. demand vs. airfare curves). Case studies demonstrate the application of the model for analysis of the effects of increased capacity and changes in operating costs (e.g. fuel prices). Although there are differences between airports (due to differences in the magnitude of travel demand and sensitivity to airfare), the system is more sensitive to changes in fuel prices than capacity. Further, the benefits of modernization in the form of increased capacity could be undermined by increases in hedged fuel prices

Sherry, Lance↗

Optimizing Air Transportation Service to Metroplex Airports: Analysis of Historical Data - Part 1

The air transportation system is a significant driver of the U.S. economy, providing safe, affordable, and rapid transportation. During the past three decades airspace and airport capacity has not grown in step with demand for air transportation (+4% annual growth), resulting in unreliable service and systemic delays. Estimates of the impact of delays and unreliable air transportation service on the economy range from $32B to $41B per year. This report describes the results of an analysis of airline strategic decision-making with regards to: (1) geographic access, (2) economic access, and (3) airline finances. This analysis evaluated markets-served, scheduled flights, aircraft size, airfares, and profit from 2005-2009. During this period, airlines experienced changes in costs of operation (due to fluctuations in hedged fuel prices), changes in travel demand (due to changes in the economy), and changes in infrastructure capacity (due to the capacity limits at EWR, JFK, and LGA). This analysis captures the impact of the implementation of capacity limits at airports, as well as the effect of increased costs of operation (i.e. hedged fuel prices). The increases in costs of operation serve as a proxy for increased costs per flight that might occur if auctions or congestion pricing are imposed.

Donohue, George↗

Optimizing Air Transportation Service to Metroplex Airports: Analysis Using the Airline Schedule Optimization Model (ASOM) - Par 2

The air transportation system is a significant driver of the U.S. economy, providing safe, affordable, and rapid transportation. During the past three decades airspace and airport capacity has not grown in step with demand for air transportation; the failure to increase capacity at the same rate as the growth in demand results in unreliable service and systemic delay. This report describes the results of an analysis of airline strategic decision-making that affects geographic access, economic access, and airline finances, extending the analysis of these factors using historic data (from Part 1 of the report). The Airline Schedule Optimization Model (ASOM) was used to evaluate how exogenous factors (passenger demand, airline operating costs, and airport capacity limits) affect geographic access (markets-served, scheduled flights, aircraft size), economic access (airfares), airline finances (profit), and air transportation efficiency (aircraft size). This analysis captures the impact of the implementation of airport capacity limits, as well as the effect of increased hedged fuel prices, which serve as a proxy for increased costs per flight that might occur if auctions or congestion pricing are imposed; also incorporated are demand elasticity curves based on historical data that provide information about how passenger demand is affected by airfare changes.

Donoue, George↗

Synthesis from Design Requirements of a Hybrid System for Transport Aircraft Longitudinal Control

Volume I of this report presents a new method for synthesizing hybrid systems directly from design requirements, and applies the method to design of a hybrid system for longitudinal control of transport aircraft. The resulting system satisfies general requirement for safety and effectiveness specified a priori, enabling formal validation to be achieved. Volume II contains seven appendices intended to make the report accessible to readers with backgrounds in human factors, fli ght dynamics and control. and formal logic. Major design goals are (1) system desi g n integrity based on proof of correctness at the design level, (2), significant simplification and cost reduction in system development and certification, and (3) improved operational efficiency, with significant alleviation of human-factors problems encountered by pilots in current transport aircraft. This report provides for the first time a firm technical basis for criteria governing design and certification of avionic systems for transport aircraft. It should be of primary interest to designers of next-generation avionic systems.

Hynes, Charles S.↗

Synthesis from Design Requirements of a Hybrid System for Transport Aircraft Longitudinal Control

Volume I of this report presents a new method for synthesizing hybrid systems directly from desi gn requirements, and applies the method to design of a hybrid system for longitudinal control of transport aircraft. The resulting system satisfies general requirement for safety and effectiveness specified a priori, enabling formal validation to be achieved. Volume II contains seven appendices intended to make the report accessible to readers with backgrounds in human factors, flight dynamics and control, and formal logic. Major design goals are (1) system design integrity based on proof of correctness at the design level, (2) significant simplification and cost reduction in system development and certification, and (3) improved operational efficiency, with significant alleviation of human-factors problems encountered by pilots in current transport aircraft. This report provides for the first time a firm technical basis for criteria governing design and certification of avionic systems for transport aircraft. It should be of primary interest to designers of next-generation avionic systems.

Hynes, Charles S.↗

Accessing FMS Functionality: The Impact of Design on Learning

In modern commercial and military aircraft, the Flight Management System (FMS) lies at the heart of the functionality of the airplane. The nature of the FMS has also caused great difficulties learning and accessing this functionality. This study examines actual Air Force pilots who were qualified on the newly introduced advanced FMS and shows that the design of the system itself is a primary source of difficulty learning the system. Twenty representative tasks were selected which the pilots could be expected to accomplish on an ' actual flight. These tasks were analyzed using the RAFIV stage model (Sherry, Polson, et al. 2002). This analysis demonstrates that a great burden is placed on remembering complex reformulation of the task to function mapping. 65% of the tasks required retaining one access steps in memory to accomplish the task, 20% required two memorized access steps, and 15% required zero memorized access steps. The probability that a participant would make an access error on the tasks was: two memorized access steps - 74%, one memorized access step - 13%, and zero memorized access steps - 6%. Other factors were analyzed as well, including experience with the system and frequency of use. This completed the picture of a system with many memorized steps causing difficulty with the new system, especially when trying to fine where to access the correct function.

Fennell, Karl↗

Drinking from the Fire Hose: Why the Flight Management System Can Be Hard to Train and Difficult to Use

The Flight Management Computer (FMC) and its interface, the Multi-function Control and Display Unit (MCDU) have been identified by researchers and airlines as difficult to train and use. Specifically, airline pilots have described the "drinking from the fire-hose" effect during training. Previous research has identified memorized action sequences as a major factor in a user s ability to learn and operate complex devices. This paper discusses the use of a method to examine the quantity of memorized action sequences required to perform a sample of 102 tasks, using features of the Boeing 777 Flight Management Computer Interface. The analysis identified a large number of memorized action sequences that must be learned during training and then recalled during line operations. Seventy-five percent of the tasks examined require recall of at least one memorized action sequence. Forty-five percent of the tasks require recall of a memorized action sequence and occur infrequently. The large number of memorized action sequences may provide an explanation for the difficulties in training and usage of the automation. Based on these findings, implications for training and the design of new user-interfaces are discussed.

Sherry, Lance↗

A Cognitive Engineering Analysis of the Vertical Navigation (VNAV) Function

A cognitive engineering analysis of the Flight Management System (FMS) Vertical Navigation (VNAV) function has identified overloading of the VNAV button and overloading of the Flight Mode Annunciator (FMA) used by the VNAV function. These two types of overloading, resulting in modal input devices and ambiguous feedback, are well known sources of operator confusion, and explain, in part, the operational issues experienced by airline pilots using VNAV in descent and approach. A proposal to modify the existing VNAV design to eliminate the overloading is discussed. The proposed design improves pilot's situational awareness of the VNAV function, and potentially reduces the cost of software development and improves safety.

Sherry, Lance↗

Aiding Vertical Guidance Understanding

A two-part study was conducted to evaluate modern flight deck automation and interfaces. In the first part, a survey was performed to validate the existence of automation surprises with current pilots. Results indicated that pilots were often surprised by the behavior of the automation. There were several surprises that were reported more frequently than others. An experimental study was then performed to evaluate (1) the reduction of automation surprises through training specifically for the vertical guidance logic, and (2) a new display that describes the flight guidance in terms of aircraft behaviors instead of control modes. The study was performed in a simulator that was used to run a complete flight with actual airline pilots. Three groups were used to evaluate the guidance display and training. In the training, condition, participants went through a training program for vertical guidance before flying the simulation. In the display condition, participants ran through the same training program and then flew the experimental scenario with the new Guidance-Flight Mode Annunciator (G-FMA). Results showed improved pilot performance when given training specifically for the vertical guidance logic and greater improvements when given the training and the new G-FMA. Using actual behavior of the avionics to design pilot training and FMA is feasible, and when the automated vertical guidance mode of the Flight Management System is engaged, the display of the guidance mode and targets yields improved pilot performance.

Feary, Michael↗

Analysis of Autopilot Behavior

Aviation and cognitive science researchers have identified situations in which the pilot's expectations for behavior of autopilot avionics are not matched by the actual behavior of the avionics. These "automation surprises" have been attributed to differences between the pilot's model of the behavior of the avionics and the actual behavior encoded in the avionics software. A formal technique is described for the analysis and measurement of the behavior of the cruise pitch modes of a modern Autopilot. The analysis characterizes the behavior of the Autopilot as situation-action rules. The behavior of the cruise pitch mode logic for a contemporary modern Autopilot was found to include 177 rules, including Level Change (23), Vertical Speed (16), Altitude Capture (50), and Altitude Hold (88). These rules are determined based on the values of 62 inputs. Analysis of the rule-based model also shed light on the factors cited in the literature as contributors to "automation surprises."

Sherry, Lance↗

Evaluating Flight Crew Operator Manual Documentation

Aviation and cognitive science researchers have identified situations in which the pilot s expectations for the behavior of the avionics are not matched by the actual behavior of the avionics. Researchers have attributed these "automation surprises" to the complexity of the avionics mode logic, the absence of complete training, limitations in cockpit displays, and ad-hoc conceptual models of the avionics. Complete canonical rule-based descriptions of the behavior of the autopilot provide the basis for understanding the perceived complexity of the autopilots, the differences between the pilot s and autopilot s conceptual models, and the limitations in training materials and cockpit displays. This paper compares the behavior of the autopilot Vertical Speed/Flight Path Angle (VS-FPA) mode as described in the Flight Crew Operators Manual (FCOM) and the actual behavior of the VS-FPA mode defined in the autopilot software. This example demonstrates the use of the Operational Procedure Model (OPM) as a method for using the requirements specification for the design of the software logic as information requirements for training.

Sherry, Lance↗

The Design of Model-Based Training Programs

This paper proposes a model-based training program for the skills necessary to operate advance avionics systems that incorporate advanced autopilots and fight management systems. The training model is based on a formalism, the operational procedure model, that represents the mission model, the rules, and the functions of a modem avionics system. This formalism has been defined such that it can be understood and shared by pilots, the avionics software, and design engineers. Each element of the software is defined in terms of its intent (What?), the rationale (Why?), and the resulting behavior (How?). The Advanced Computer Tutoring project at Carnegie Mellon University has developed a type of model-based, computer aided instructional technology called cognitive tutors. They summarize numerous studies showing that training times to a specified level of competence can be achieved in one third the time of conventional class room instruction. We are developing a similar model-based training program for the skills necessary to operation the avionics. The model underlying the instructional program and that simulates the effects of pilots entries and the behavior of the avionics is based on the operational procedure model. Pilots are given a series of vertical flightpath management problems. Entries that result in violations, such as failure to make a crossing restriction or violating the speed limits, result in error messages with instruction. At any time, the flightcrew can request suggestions on the appropriate set of actions. A similar and successful training program for basic skills for the FMS on the Boeing 737-300 was developed and evaluated. The results strongly support the claim that the training methodology can be adapted to the cockpit.

Polson, Peter↗

Evaluation of Model-Based Training for Vertical Guidance Logic

This paper will summarize the results of a study which introduces a structured, model based approach to learning how the automated vertical guidance system works on a modern commercial air transport. The study proposes a framework to provide accurate and complete information in an attempt to eliminate confusion about 'what the system is doing'. This study will examine a structured methodology for organizing the ideas on which the system was designed, communicating this information through the training material, and displaying it in the airplane. Previous research on model-based, computer aided instructional technology has shown reductions in the amount of time to a specified level of competence. The lessons learned from the development of these technologies are well suited for use with the design methodology which was used to develop the vertical guidance logic for a large commercial air transport. The design methodology presents the model from which to derive the training material, and the content of information to be displayed to the operator. The study consists of a 2 X 2 factorial experiment which will compare a new method of training vertical guidance logic and a new type of display. The format of the material used to derive both the training and the display will be provided by the Operational Procedure Methodology. The training condition will compare current training material to the new structured format. The display condition will involve a change of the content of the information displayed into pieces that agree with the concepts with which the system was designed.

Feary, Michael↗