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Shih, A. T.

Publications and source records attributed to Shih, A. T..

Aviation Safety Risk Modeling: Lessons Learned From Multiple Knowledge Elicitation Sessions

Aviation safety risk modeling has elements of both art and science. In a complex domain, such as the National Airspace System (NAS), it is essential that knowledge elicitation (KE) sessions with domain experts be performed to facilitate the making of plausible inferences about the possible impacts of future technologies and procedures. This study discusses lessons learned throughout the multiple KE sessions held with domain experts to construct probabilistic safety risk models for a Loss of Control Accident Framework (LOCAF), FLightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP), and Runway Incursion (RI) mishap scenarios. The intent of these safety risk models is to support a portfolio analysis of NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). These models use the flexible, probabilistic approach of Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) and influence diagrams to model the complex interactions of aviation system risk factors. Each KE session had a different set of experts with diverse expertise, such as pilot, air traffic controller, certification, and/or human factors knowledge that was elicited to construct a composite, systems-level risk model. There were numerous "lessons learned" from these KE sessions that deal with behavioral aggregation, conditional probability modeling, object-oriented construction, interpretation of the safety risk results, and model verification/validation that are presented in this paper.

Luxhoj, J. T.

An Integrated Approach to Life Cycle Analysis

Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) is the evaluation of the impacts that design decisions have on a system and provides a framework for identifying and evaluating design benefits and burdens associated with the life cycles of space transportation systems from a "cradle-to-grave" approach. Sometimes called life cycle assessment, life cycle approach, or "cradle to grave analysis", it represents a rapidly emerging family of tools and techniques designed to be a decision support methodology and aid in the development of sustainable systems. The implementation of a Life Cycle Analysis can vary and may take many forms; from global system-level uncertainty-centered analysis to the assessment of individualized discriminatory metrics. This paper will focus on a proven LCA methodology developed by the Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate (SACD) at NASA Langley Research Center to quantify and assess key LCA discriminatory metrics, in particular affordability, reliability, maintainability, and operability. This paper will address issues inherent in Life Cycle Analysis including direct impacts, such as system development cost and crew safety, as well as indirect impacts, which often take the form of coupled metrics (i.e., the cost of system unreliability). Since LCA deals with the analysis of space vehicle system conceptual designs, it is imperative to stress that the goal of LCA is not to arrive at the answer but, rather, to provide important inputs to a broader strategic planning process, allowing the managers to make risk-informed decisions, and increase the likelihood of meeting mission success criteria.

Chytka, T. M.

Scramjet Development Tests Supporting the Mach 10 Flight of the X-43

The Hyper-X Project s successful third flight of the X-43 at near Mach 10 in 2004 proved the potential for airbreathing propulsion at hypersonic speeds. The engine flowpath used in the X-43 research vehicle was developed and evaluated in a systematic series of ground tests in the NASA HyPulse Shock Tunnel at conditions duplicating Mach 10 flight using a full scale height, partial width engine model of the flight engine. Tests were conducted over a range of equivalence ratios from 0.8 to 1.6 using hydrogen and a mixture of two-percent silane in hydrogen fuels. Silane gas was used as an ignition aid during the short duration of the pulse facility tests. Variation of the engine inflow conditions, pressure, temperature, and Mach number, were parametrically varied during the test entries to broaden the database over the expected uncertainty in the flight conditions. A review of the ground test technique and comparisons of the ground test pressures along with selected flight data are presented.

Rogers, R. C.

Scramjet Engine Flowpath Development for the Hyper-X Mach 10 Flight Test

The third flight of the Hyper-X Research Vehicle at nearly Mach 10 in November 2004 demonstrated the potential for airbreathing propulsion at hypersonic speeds. The flowpath of the scramjet engine used in the Hyper-X Research Vehicle was developed using computational fluid dynamic based design method in combination with a systematic series of ground tests in the NASA HyPulse Shock Tunnel at conditions duplicating Mach 10 flight. The test model was a true scale height and length of the internal flight engine flowpath that was partial width and truncated fore and aft. Tests were conducted using a mixture of hydrogen augmented with two-percent silane. Silane gas served as an ignition aid during the short duration of the pulse facility tests. The engine inflow values of pressure, temperature, and Mach number were parametrically varied during the ground test entries to broaden the database over the expected uncertainty in the flight conditions. A review of the ground test technique and comparisons of the ground test pressures along with selected data from the third flight are presented.

Rogers, R. C.

Scramjet Tests in a Shock Tunnel at Flight Mach 7, 10, and 15 Conditions

Tests of the Hyper-X scramjet engine flowpath have been conducted in the HYPULSE shock tunnel at conditions duplicating the stagnation enthalpy at flight Mach 7, 10, and 15. For the tests at Mach 7 and 10 HYPULSE was operated as a reflected-shock tunnel; at the Mach 15 condition, HYPULSE was operated as a shock-expansion tunnel. The test conditions matched the stagnation enthalpy of a scramjet engine on an aerospace vehicle accelerating through the atmosphere along a 1000 psf dynamic pressure trajectory. Test parameter variation included fuel equivalence ratios from lean (0.8) to rich (1.5+); fuel composition from pure hydrogen to mixtures of 2% and 5% silane in hydrogen by volume; and inflow pressure and Mach number made by changing the scramjet model mounting angle in the HYPULSE test chamber. Data sources were wall pressures and heat flux distributions and schlieren and fuel plume imaging in the combustor/nozzle sections. Data are presented for calibration of the facility nozzles and the scramjet engine model. Comparisons of pressure distributions and flowpath streamtube performance estimates are made for the three Mach numbers tested.

Rogers, R. C.

Hyper-X Mach 10 Engine Flowpath Development: Fifth Entry Test Conditions and Methodology

A series of Hyper-X Mach 10 flowpath ground tests are underway to obtain engine performance and operation data and to confirm and refine the flowpath design methods. The model used is a full-scale height, partial-width replica of the Hyper-X Research Vehicle propulsive flowpath with truncated forebody and aftbody. This is the fifth test entry for this model in the NASA-HYPULSE facility at GASL. For this entry the facility nozzle and model forebody were modified to better simulate the engine inflow conditions at the target flight conditions. The forebody was modified to be a wide flat plate with no flow fences, the facility nozzle Mach number was increased, and the model was positioned to be tested in a semi-direct-connect arrangement. This paper presents a review of the test conditions, model calibrations, and a description of steady flow confirmation. The test series included runs using hydrogen fuel, and a silane-in-hydrogen fuel mixture. Other test parameters included the model mounting angle (relative to the tunnel flow), and the test gas oxygen fraction to account for the presence of [NO] in the test gas at the M10 conditions.

Bakos, R. J.

The Mach 10 Component of NASA's Hyper-X Ground Test Program

The Mach 10 Hyper-X ground test program is described, in which experimental flowpath parametric testing is being done in the HYPULSE facility. This facility has been upgraded for this effort by adding a reflected-shock-tunnel operating mode to access test conditions at Mach 10 and below. A large test section and hypersonic nozzle have been installed to provide full-scale engine test capability and the instrumentation systems have been expanded. A model of the Hyper-X engine flowpath has been built for freejet testing in the shock tunnel at both Mach 7 and 10 flight conditions. The model has over 180 instrumentation ports, a pitot rake mountable at the engine inlet or exit, and optical windows for visualization of the isolator, combustor, and nozzle. Testing in HYPULSE has been completed at Mach 7 conditions to provide a link between pulse facility data and the large Hyper-X performance database that is being accumulated in long-duration facilities. Comparisons of Mach 7 data with computational predictions and with data recently acquired for an identical flowpath being tested in the NASA 8-foot High Temperature Tunnel are presented.

Bakos, R. J.