Engineering topics

Shindell, D. T.

Publications and source records attributed to Shindell, D. T..

32 records · Page 2

NASA NTRS2013

Multi-model Mean Nitrogen and Sulfur Deposition from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): Evaluation Historical and Projected Changes

We present multi-model global datasets of nitrogen and sulfate deposition covering time periods from 1850 to 2100, calculated within the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The computed deposition fluxes are compared to surface wet deposition and ice-core measurements. We use a new dataset of wet deposition for 2000-2002 based on critical assessment of the quality of existing regional network data. We show that for present-day (year 2000 ACCMIP time-slice), the ACCMIP results perform similarly to previously published multi-model assessments. For this time slice, we find a multi-model mean deposition of 50 Tg(N) yr1 from nitrogen oxide emissions, 60 Tg(N) yr1 from ammonia emissions, and 83 Tg(S) yr1 from sulfur emissions. The analysis of changes between 1980 and 2000 indicates significant differences between model and measurements over the United States but less so over Europe. This difference points towards misrepresentation of 1980 NH3 emissions over North America. Based on ice-core records, the 1850 deposition fluxes agree well with Greenland ice cores but the change between 1850 and 2000 seems to be overestimated in the Northern Hemisphere for both nitrogen and sulfur species. Using the Representative Concentration Pathways to define the projected climate and atmospheric chemistry related emissions and concentrations, we find large regional nitrogen deposition increases in 2100 in Latin America, Africa and parts of Asia under some of the scenarios considered. Increases in South Asia are especially large, and are seen in all scenarios, with 2100 values more than double 2000 in some scenarios and reaching 1300 mg(N) m2 yr1 averaged over regional to continental scale regions in RCP 2.6 and 8.5, 3050 larger than the values in any region currently (2000). The new ACCMIP deposition dataset provides novel, consistent and evaluated global gridded deposition fields for use in a wide range of climate and ecological studies.

Lamarque, J.-F.↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Added Value to Global Model Projections of Climate Change by Dynamical Downscaling: A Case Study over the Continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF Models

Dynamical downscaling is being increasingly used for climate change studies, wherein the climates simulated by a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) for a historical and a future (projected) decade are used to drive a regional climate model (RCM) over a specific area. While previous studies have demonstrated that RCMs can add value to AOGCM-simulated climatologies over different world regions, it is unclear as to whether or not this translates to a better reproduction of the observed climate change therein. We address this issue over the continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF models, a state-of-the-science AOGCM and RCM, respectively. As configured here, the RCM does not effect holistic improvement in the seasonally and regionally averaged surface air temperature or precipitation for the individual historical decades. Insofar as the climate change between the two decades is concerned, the RCM does improve upon the AOGCM when nudged in the domain proper, but only modestly so. Further, the analysis indicates that there is not a strong relationship between skill in capturing climatological means and skill in capturing climate change. Though additional research would be needed to demonstrate the robustness of this finding in AOGCM/RCM models generally, the evidence indicates that, for climate change studies, the most important factor is the skill of the driving global model itself, suggesting that highest priority should be given to improving the long-range climate skill of AOGCMs.

Racherla, P. N.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Evaluation of the Absolute Regional Temperature Potential

The Absolute Regional Temperature Potential (ARTP) is one of the few climate metrics that provides estimates of impacts at a sub-global scale. The ARTP presented here gives the time-dependent temperature response in four latitude bands (90-28degS, 28degS-28degN, 28-60degN and 60-90degN) as a function of emissions based on the forcing in those bands caused by the emissions. It is based on a large set of simulations performed with a single atmosphere-ocean climate model to derive regional forcing/response relationships. Here I evaluate the robustness of those relationships using the forcing/response portion of the ARTP to estimate regional temperature responses to the historic aerosol forcing in three independent climate models. These ARTP results are in good accord with the actual responses in those models. Nearly all ARTP estimates fall within +/-20%of the actual responses, though there are some exceptions for 90-28degS and the Arctic, and in the latter the ARTP may vary with forcing agent. However, for the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes in particular, the +/-20% range appears to be roughly consistent with the 95% confidence interval. Land areas within these two bands respond 39-45% and 9-39% more than the latitude band as a whole. The ARTP, presented here in a slightly revised form, thus appears to provide a relatively robust estimate for the responses of large-scale latitude bands and land areas within those bands to inhomogeneous radiative forcing and thus potentially to emissions as well. Hence this metric could allow rapid evaluation of the effects of emissions policies at a finer scale than global metrics without requiring use of a full climate model.

Shindell, D. T.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Precipitation Response to Regional Radiative Forcing

Precipitation shifts can have large impacts on human society and ecosystems. Many aspects of how inhomogeneous radiative forcings influence precipitation remain unclear, however. Here we investigate regional precipitation responses to various forcings imposed in different latitude bands in a climate model. We find that several regions show strong, significant responses to most forcings, but that the magnitude and even the sign depends upon the forcing location and type. Aerosol and ozone forcings typically induce larger responses than equivalent carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing, and the influence of remote forcings often outweighs that of local forcings. Consistent with this, ozone and especially aerosols contribute greatly to precipitation changes over the Sahel and South and East Asia in historical simulations, and inclusion of aerosols greatly increases the agreement with observed trends in these areas, which cannot be attributed to either greenhouse gases or natural forcings. Estimates of precipitation responses derived from multiplying our Regional Precipitation Potentials (RPP; the response per unit forcing relationships) by historical forcings typically capture the actual response in full transient climate simulations fairly well, suggesting that these relationships may provide useful metrics. The strong sensitivity to aerosol and ozone forcing suggests that although some air quality improvements may unmask greenhouse gas-induced warming, they have large benefits for reducing regional disruption of the hydrologic cycle.

Shindell, D. T.↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Distribution of Snow Black Carbon observed in the Arctic and Compared to the GISS-PUCCINI Model

In this study, we evaluate the ability of the latest NASA GISS composition-climate model, GISS-E2- PUCCINI, to simulate the spatial distribution of snow BC (sBC) in the Arctic relative to present-day observations. Radiative forcing due to BC deposition onto Arctic snow and sea ice is also estimated. Two sets of model simulations are analyzed, where meteorology is linearly relaxed towards National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and towards NASA Modern Era Reanalysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses. Results indicate that the modeled concentrations of sBC are comparable with presentday observations in and around the Arctic Ocean, except for apparent underestimation at a few sites in the Russian Arctic. That said, the model has some biases in its simulated spatial distribution of BC deposition to the Arctic. The simulations from the two model runs are roughly equal, indicating that discrepancies between model and observations come from other sources. Underestimation of biomass burning emissions in Northern Eurasia may be the main cause of the low biases in the Russian Arctic. Comparisons of modeled aerosol BC (aBC) with long-term surface observations at Barrow, Alert, Zeppelin and Nord stations show significant underestimation in winter and spring concentrations in the Arctic (most significant in Alaska), although the simulated seasonality of aBC has been greatly improved relative to earlier model versions. This is consistent with simulated biases in vertical profiles of aBC, with underestimation in the lower and middle troposphere but overestimation in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, suggesting that the wet removal processes in the current model may be too weak or that vertical transport is too rapid, although the simulated BC lifetime seems reasonable. The combination of observations and modeling provides a comprehensive distribution of sBC over the Arctic. On the basis of this distribution, we estimate the decrease in snow and sea ice albedo and the resulting radiative forcing. We suggest that the albedo reduction due to BC deposition presents significant space-time variations, with highest mean reductions of 1.25% in the Russian Arctic, which are much larger than those in other Arctic regions (0.39% to 0.64 %). The averaged value over the Arctic north of 66degN is 0.4-0.6% during spring, leading to regional surface radiative forcings of 0.7, 1.1 and 1.0Wm(exp−2) in spring 2007, 2008 and 2009, respectively.

Dou, T.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Global Multi-Year O3-CO Correlation Patterns from Models and TES Satellite Observations

The correlation between measured tropospheric ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) has been used extensively in tropospheric chemistry studies to explore the photochemical characteristics of different regions and to evaluate the ability of models to capture these characteristics. Here, we present the first study that uses multi-year, global, vertically resolved, simultaneous and collocated O3 and CO satellite (Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer) measurements, to determine this correlation in the middle/lower free troposphere for two different seasons, and to evaluate two chemistry-climate models. We find results that are fairly robust across different years, altitudes and timescales considered, which indicates that the correlation maps presented here could be used in future model evaluations. The highest positive correlations (around 0.8) are found in the northern Pacific during summer, which is a common feature in the observations and the G-PUCCINI model. We make quantitative comparisons between the models using a single-figure metric (C), which we define as the correlation coefficient between the modeled and the observed O3-CO correlations for different regions of the globe. On a global scale, the G-PUCCINI model shows a good performance in the summer (C =0.71) and a satisfactory performance in the winter (C = 0.52). It captures midlatitude features very well, especially in the summer, whereas the performance in regions like South America or Central Africa is weaker. The UKCA model (C = 0.46/0.15 for July-August/December-January on a global scale) performs better in certain regions, such as the tropics in winter, and it captures some of the broad characteristics of summer extratropical correlations, but it systematically underestimates the O3-CO correlations over much of the globe. It is noteworthy that the correlations look very different in the two models, even though the ozone distributions are similar. This demonstrates that this technique provides a powerful global constraint for understanding modeled tropospheric chemical processes. We investigated the sources of the correlations by performing a series of sensitivity experiments. In these, the sign of the correlation is, in most cases, insensitive to removing different individual emissions, but its magnitude changes downwind of emission regions when applying such perturbations. Interestingly, we find that the O3-CO correlation does not solely reflect the strength of O3 photochemical production, as often assumed by earlier studies, but is more complicated and may reflect a mixture of different processes such as transport.

Voulgarakis, A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Climate Forcing Reconstructions for Use in PMIP Simulations of the Last Millennium (v1.0)

Simulations of climate over the Last Millennium (850-1850 CE) have been incorporated into the third phase of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3). The drivers of climate over this period are chiefly orbital, solar, volcanic, changes in land use/land cover and some variation in greenhouse gas levels. While some of these effects can be easily defined, the reconstructions of solar, volcanic and land use-related forcing are more uncertain. We describe here the approach taken in defining the scenarios used in PMIP3, document the forcing reconstructions and discuss likely implications.

volcanoes↗

NASA NTRS2002

Chemistry-Climate Interactions in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model: New Insights into Modeling the Pre-Industrial Atmosphere - 2

We investigate the chemical (hydroxyl and ozone) and dynamical response to changing from present day to pre-industrial conditions in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model (GISS GMC). We identify three main improvements not included by many other works. Firstly, our model includes interactive cloud calculations. Secondly we reduce sulfate aerosol which impacts NOx partitioning hence Ox distributions. Thirdly we reduce sea surface temperatures and increase ocean ice coverage which impact water vapor and ground albedo respectively. Changing the ocean data (hence water vapor and ozone) produces a potentially important feedback between the Hadley circulation and convective cloud cover. Our present day run (run 1, control run) global mean OH value was 9.8 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. For our best estimate of pre-industrial conditions run (run 2) which featured modified chemical emissions, sulfate aerosol and sea surface temperatures/ocean ice, this value changed to 10.2 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. Reducing only the chemical emissions to pre-industrial levels in run 1 (run 3) resulted in this value increasing to 10.6 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. Reducing the sulfate in run 3 to pre-industrial levels (run 4) resulted in a small increase in global mean OH (10.7 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc). Changing the ocean data in run 4 to pre-industrial levels (run 5) led to a reduction in this value to 10.3 x 10(exp 5) molecules/cc. Mean tropospheric ozone burdens were 262, 181, 180, 180, and 182 Tg for runs 1-5 respectively.

Grenfell, J. Lee↗

NASA NTRS1996

Validation of UARS Microwave Limb Sounder ClO Measurements

Validation of stratospheric ClO measurements by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) is described. Credibility of the measurements is established by (1) the consistency of the measured ClO spectral emission line with the retrieved ClO profiles and (2) comparisons of ClO from MLS with that from correlative measurements by balloon-based, ground-based, and aircraft-based instruments. Values of "noise" (random), "scaling" (multiplicative), and "bias" (additive) uncertainties are determined for the Version 3 data, in the first version public release of the known artifacts in these data are identified. Comparisons with correlative measurements indicate agreement to within the combined uncertainties expected for MLS and the other measurements being compared. It is concluded that MLS Version 3 ClO data, with proper consideration of the uncertainties and "quality" parameters produced with these data, can be used for scientific analyses at retrieval surfaces between 46 and 1 hPa (approximately 20-50 km in height). Future work is planned to correct known problems in the data and improve their quality.

Waters, J. W.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Stratospheric ClO profiles from McMurdo Station, Antarctica, spring 1992

We describe ground-based measurements of ClO made at McMurdo Station, Antarctica, during September and October 1992. Vertical profiles were retrieved from molecular rotational emission spectra at 278 GHz. Peak mixing ratios of 1.6 +/- 0.3 ppbv were seen in mid-September at approximately 18 km altitude, suggestive of somewhat larger quantities than were measured at the same site and season in 1987. As the core of the polar vortex moved away from McMurdo by early October, the ClO mixing ratio at this altitude dropped to less than 0.2 ppbv, coincident with increasing temperature, ozone, and NO2. The diurnal variation of ClO was also observed. The lower stratospheric layer from 15 to 27 km was found to reach approximately midday abundance by 2 - 3 hours after sunrise. The column abundance in this layer began to decrease by the period 4 - 2 hours before sunset and had declined to approximately one quarter of its midday value by 2 - 0 hours before sunset. In contrast, the ClO column in the upper stratosphere, from 28 to 50 km, built up slowly until midday and remained large while sunlight persisted.

Emmons, L. K.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Arctic chlorine monoxide observations during spring 1993 over Thule, Greenland, and implications for ozone depletion

We have determined the vertical distribution of chlorine monoxide (ClO), from measurements of pressure-broadened molecular-emission spectra made over Thule, Greenland, during the 1993 Arctic spring. The measurements show a weak lower stratospheric layer of chlorine monoxide inside the vortex in late February, which was, however, significantly greater in mixing ratio than that seen in observations we made in the spring of 1992. ClO was also observed in much smaller quantities in early to mid-March 1993 when Thule was outside the vortex. The amount of ClO within the vortex was severely reduced by the time it returned over Thule in late March. This reduction occurred several weeks earlier relative to the winter solstice than the decline of ClO inside the Antarctic vortex in 1993. The enhanced Arctic lower stratospheric layer seen in late February 1993 at a nearly equivalent photochemical period, and beyond. We have calculated daily ozone loss rates, due primarily to the dimer chlorine catalytic cycle, from both sets of measurements. The vertical integral of the Arctic daily percentage ozone loss when the largest ClO levels were present, at the end of February, is found to be approximately one quarter of that in the Antarctic at a photochemical period only 1 week later. The relative weakness of daily ozone depletion, combined with the early disappearance of ClO in the Arctic, suggests that hemispheric dilution by ozone-poor air from within the Arctic vortex is unlikely to be sufficient to explain the historically extreme loss of midlatitude northern hemisphere ozone which began in 1992 and persisted throughout 1993.

Shindell, D. T.↗

NASA NTRS1994

An overview of millimeter-wave spectroscopic measurements of chlorine monoxide at Thule, Greenland, February-March, 1992: Vertical profiles, diurnal variation, and longer-term trends

Measurements of chlorine monoxide in the stratosphere over Thule, Greenland (73.6 N, 68.4 W) were made quasi-continuously during the period February 8 to March 24, 1992, using a high-sensitivity ground based mm-wave spectrometer. These observations give diurnal, short term, and long term changes in the mixing ratio and vertical distribution of ClO. At an equivalent time after the Antarctic winter solstice, very large concentrations (up to approximately 1.5 ppbv) occur in lower stratospheric ClO, resulting in massive ozone destruction. We saw no evidence for large (approximately 1 top 1.5 ppbv) amounts of ClO in the 16-25 km range over Thule in February or March, in agreement with UARS (satellite) observations by the MLS mm-wave spectrometer for this period, and in marked contrast to UARS/MLS and ER-2 aircraft measurements over northern Europe and eastern Canada, respectively, during January, 1992. We have evidence for smaller enhancements (approximately 0.2 to 0.5 ppbv) in the 18-30 km range during late February-early March, which could result from transport of residual low NO2 air following earlier polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) processing (the last of which occurred at least one month earlier, however) or the result of chemical processing by Pinatubo aerosols. Direct influence of Pinatubo aerosols on Arctic ozone during the spring of 1992 has been difficult to assess, and this enhancement of low-altitude ClO might be a significant indicator of aerosol effects.

De Zafra, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

N2O as an indicator of Arctic vortex dynamics: Correlations with O3 over Thule, Greenland in February and March, 1992

We have recovered vertical profiles of stratospheric N2O from spectra observed using a ground-based mm-wave spectrometer during the Arctic spring. The measurements were made from Thule, Greenland (76.3 deg N, 68.4 deg W) on nine occasions from late February to late March, 1992 as part of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) Correlative Measurements Program and the European Arctic Stratospheric Ozone Experiment (EASOE). During late February Thule was under inside edge of the Arctic vortex and mixing ratio profiles measured in that period are substantially reduced from typical high-latitude summer values. By late March the polar vortex had moved well away from Thule and N2O mixing ratios were greatly increased, coinciding with a basic change in circulation that brought in air from the Aleutian high. The motion of the vortex is also illustrated in the change in potential vorticity above Thule. A correlation with ozone balloonsonde data from Thule is made and compared to similar analyses of the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Expedition (AASE) measurements. Within the sensitivity of our analysis, the correlation of N2O and O3 shows no evidence of ozone depletion within the vortex during this period; however, there is a distinct difference in the correlation inside and outside the vortex.

Emmons, L. K.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A new high-sensitivity superconducting receiver for mm-wave remote-sensing spectroscopy of the stratosphere

We describe a recently constructed ground-based mm-wave spectrometer incorporating a superconducting tunnel junction as a heterodyne mixer-receiver. Under conditions of low tropospheric water vapor, the superior sensitivity of this receiver allows spectral line measurements of stratospheric molecules with mixing ratios as small as a few tenths of a part per billion (e.g., ClO, HCN) to be made in 4 to 6 hours, with a signal to noise ratio of at least 30:1. We expect to be able to halve this time by further improvement of the mixer's intrinsic noise level.

Dezafra, R. L.↗