Engineering topics

Shinn, Stephen A.

Publications and source records attributed to Shinn, Stephen A..

6 records

NASA NTRS2019

Challenges and Potential Solutions to Develop and Fund NASA Flagship Missions

Large, strategic "Flagship" missions have unique characteristics that lead to challenging developmental difficulties for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Missions such as the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), and the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) had technical and programmatic challenges that led to significant schedule delays and subsequent cost growth. Although NASA has instituted policies that have reduced cost growth for more "typical" NASA science missions, NASA Flagship missions remain a distinct challenge due to their requirement to provide unprecedented science or tackle bold exploration goals, typically while concurrently developing new technologies. The unique challenges presented by Flagship missions make it extremely difficult to fully predict cost and schedule given that the technical and programmatic advances needed to meet performance requirements are unprecedented. This paper addresses why Flagship missions are unique and proposes a new programmatic approach to develop and fund Flagship missions.

Develop↗

NASA NTRS2017

Early Warning Look Ahead Metrics: The Percent Milestone Backlog Metric

All complex development projects experience delays and corresponding backlogs of their project control milestones during their acquisition lifecycles. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Flight Projects Directorate (FPD) teamed with The Aerospace Corporation (Aerospace) to develop a collection of Early Warning Look Ahead metrics that would provide GSFC leadership with some independent indication of the programmatic health of GSFC flight projects. As part of the collection of Early Warning Look Ahead metrics, the Percent Milestone Backlog metric is particularly revealing, and has utility as a stand-alone execution performance monitoring tool. This paper describes the purpose, development methodology, and utility of the Percent Milestone Backlog metric. The other four Early Warning Look Ahead metrics are also briefly discussed. Finally, an example of the use of the Percent Milestone Backlog metric in providing actionable insight is described, along with examples of its potential use in other commodities.

acquisition lifecycles↗

NASA NTRS2016

Contribution of Schedule Delays to Cost Growth: How to Make Peace with a Marching Army

Numerous research papers have shown that cost and schedule growth are interrelated for NASA space science missions. Although there has shown to be a strong correlation of cost growth with schedule growth, it is unclear what percentage of cost growth is caused by schedule growth and how schedule growth can be controlled. This paper attempts to quantify this percentage by looking at historical data and show detailed examples of how schedule growth influences cost growth. The paper also addresses a methodology to show an alternate approach for assessing and setting a robust baseline schedule and use schedule performance metrics to help assess if the project is performing to plan. Finally, recommendations are presented to help control schedule growth in order to minimize cost growth for NASA space science missions.

schedule↗

NASA NTRS2016

Historical Mass, Power, Schedule, and Cost Growth for NASA Spacecraft

Although spacecraft developers have been moving towards standardized product lines as the aerospace industry has matured, NASA's continual need to push the cutting edge of science to accomplish unique, challenging missions can still lead to spacecraft resource growth over time. This paper assesses historical mass, power, cost, and schedule growth for multiple NASA spacecraft from the last twenty years and compares to industry reserve guidelines to understand where the guidelines may fall short. Growth is assessed from project start to launch, from the time of the preliminary design review (PDR) to launch and from the time of the critical design review (CDR) to launch. Data is also assessed not just at the spacecraft bus level, but also at the subsystem level wherever possible, to help obtain further insight into possible drivers of growth. Potential recommendations to minimize spacecraft mass, power, cost, and schedule growth for future missions are also discussed.

Schedule↗

NASA NTRS2016

The Business Change Initiative: A Novel Approach to Improved Cost and Schedule Management

Goddard Space Flight Center's Flight Projects Directorate employed a Business Change Initiative (BCI) to infuse a series of activities coordinated to drive improved cost and schedule performance across Goddard's missions. This sustaining change framework provides a platform to manage and implement cost and schedule control techniques throughout the project portfolio. The BCI concluded in December 2014, deploying over 100 cost and schedule management changes including best practices, tools, methods, training, and knowledge sharing. The new business approach has driven the portfolio to improved programmatic performance. The last eight launched GSFC missions have optimized cost, schedule, and technical performance on a sustained basis to deliver on time and within budget, returning funds in many cases. While not every future mission will boast such strong performance, improved cost and schedule tools, management practices, and ongoing comprehensive evaluations of program planning and control methods to refine and implement best practices will continue to provide a framework for sustained performance. This paper will describe the tools, techniques, and processes developed during the BCI and the utilization of collaborative content management tools to disseminate project planning and control techniques to ensure continuous collaboration and optimization of cost and schedule management in the future.

Schedule↗

NASA NTRS2016

Schedule Matters: Understanding the Relationship between Schedule Delays and Costs on Overruns

This paper examines the relationship between schedule delays and cost overruns on complex projects. It is generally accepted by many project practitioners that cost overruns are directly related to schedule delays. But what does "directly related to" actually mean? Some reasons or root causes for schedule delays and associated cost overruns are obvious, if only in hindsight. For example, unrealistic estimates, supply chain difficulties, insufficient schedule margin, technical problems, scope changes, or the occurrence of risk events can negatively impact schedule performance. Other factors driving schedule delays and cost overruns may be less obvious and more difficult to quantify. Examples of these less obvious factors include project complexity, flawed estimating assumptions, over-optimism, political factors, "black swan" events, or even poor leadership and communication. Indeed, is it even possible the schedule itself could be a source of delay and subsequent cost overrun? Through literature review, surveys of project practitioners, and the authors' own experience on NASA programs and projects, the authors will categorize and examine the various factors affecting the relationship between project schedule delays and cost growth. The authors will also propose some ideas for organizations to consider to help create an awareness of the factors which could cause or influence schedule delays and associated cost growth on complex projects.

Overruns↗