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Short, D. A.

Publications and source records attributed to Short, D. A..

Stratiform and Convective Rain Discrimination from Microwave Radiometer Observations

A criterion based on the SSM/I observations is developed to discriminate rain into convective and stratiform types. This criterion depends on the microwave polarization properties of the flat melting snow particles that fall slowly in the stratiform clouds. Utilizing this criterion and some spatial and temporal characteristics of hydrometeors in TOGA-COARE area revealed by ship borne radars, we have developed an algorithm to retrieve convective and stratiform rain rate from SSM/I data.

Prabhakara, C.

Rainfall over oceans inferred from Nimbus 7 SMMR - Application to 1982-83 El Nino

Nimbus 7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) measurements at five frequencies in the region 6.6 to 37 GHz, at a resolution of 155 km, are analyzed to infer precipitation over the global oceans. The microwave data show, on this spatial scale, that the combined liquid water in the clouds and rain increases the brightness temperature almost linearly with frequency in the 6.6-18-GHz region, while at 37 GHz such a simple relationship is not noticed. Further, as the atmospheric water-vapor absorption and the effects of scattering by precipitation particles are relatively weak at 6.6 and 10.7 GHz, a technique to remotely sense the liquid water content in the atmosphere is developed based on the brightness measurements at these two frequencies. Seasonal mean patterns of liquid water content in the atmosphere derived from SMMR over global oceans relate closely to climatological patterns of precipitation. Based on this, an empirical relationship is derived to estimate precipitation over the global oceans, with an accuracy of about + or - 30 percent, on a seasonal basis from satellite measurements made during the three years (1979-81) before the recent El Nino event. The deviations from these three-year means, in the precipitation, produced by the 1982-83 el Nino event are then deduced from the SMMR measurements. In the Pacific, the precipitation over the ITCZ in the north, the South Pacific Convergence Zone, and the oceans around Indonesia is drastically reduced. At the same time a substantial increase in precipitation is observed over the normally dry central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Prabhakara, C.

Tropical climatic phase lags and earth's precession cycle

Atmospheric GCMs have shown that thermally forced monsoon circulations are enhanced by the strengthened seasonal cycle of solar heating that results when summer solstice occurs near perihelion. However, observations indicate that the tropical climatic response reaches a maximum thousands of years after solstice-perihelion alignment. The reasons for this lag are addressed by examining the response to the precession cycle. The model utilized suggests that some features of the monsoon circulation may reach maximum intensity about 3000 yr after solstice-perihelion alignment as the result of a direct thermal response to the astronomical forcing.

Short, D. A.

Role of seasonality in the evolution of climate during the last 100 million years

A simple climate model has been used to calculate the effect of past changes in the land-sea distribution on the seasonal cycle of temperatures during the last 100 million years. Modeled summer temperature decreased over Greenland by more than 10 C and over Antarctica by 5 to 8 C. For the last 80 million years, this thermal response is comparable in magnitude to estimated atmospheric carbon dioxide effects. Analysis of paleontological data provides some support for the proposed hypothesis that large changes due to seasonality may have sometimes resulted in an ice-free state due to high summer temperatures rather than year-round warmth. Such 'cool' nonglacials may have prevailed for as much as one-third of the last 100 million years.

Crowley, T. J.

El Nino and atmospheric water vapor - Observations from Nimbus 7 SMMR

Atmospheric water vapor content over the global oceans is measured to study the air-sea interactions associated with El Nino/Southern Oscillation. A scanning multichannel microwave radiometer measured brightness temperatures of the earth-atmosphere system at 6.6, 10.7, 18, 21, and 37 GHz, and from these data water vapor content is derived. The seasonal mean distribution of water vapor for the regular season cycle from 1979-1981 are examined; the minima associated with the subtropical anticyclones in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans in the Northern and Southern hemispheres, and the Walker circulation in the tropical Pacific Ocean are analyzed. The positive and negative anomalies in water vapor during the 1982-1983 El Nino event, which correspond to convergence and enhanced convective activity, are investigated. It is concluded that during El Nino events a system of convection and subsidence exists; the subsidence slows the supply of water vapor and cloud growth in the convectively active center and the Walker circulation is reversed.

Prabhakara, C.

Infrared parameterization and simple climate models

The geographical distribution of the annual mean and the annual cycle in surface temperature and satellite-observed IR is examined, and the spherical harmonic representation of the data fields is exploited to demonstrate how variances and covariances are dominated by the largest space and time scales. The geographical distribution of the annual cycle in the T and IR fields is explored; the strong imprint of the continents in both is clearly evident. The influence of the cloudiness of seasonal precipitation regimes on the IR annual cycle is also quite striking, especially over the subtropics. Analysis of the data shows that the simple form IR = A+BT (with A = 204 W/sq m and B = 1.93 W/sq m/K) explains 90 percent of the area-weighted variance in the annual mean and annual cycle of the zonally averaged IR field.

Short, D. A.

Nimbus 7 SMMR Derived Seasonal Variations in the Water Vapor, Liquid Water and Surface Winds over the Global Oceans

Monthly mean distributions of water vapor and liquid water contained in a vertical column of the atmosphere and the surface wind speed were derived from Nimbus Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) observations over the global oceans for the period November 1978 to November 1979. The remote sensing techniques used to estimate these parameters from SMMR are presented to reveal the limitations, accuracies, and applicability of the satellite-derived information for climate studies. On a time scale of the order of a month, the distribution of atmospheric water vapor over the oceans is controlled by the sea surface temperature and the large scale atmospheric circulation. The monthly mean distribution of liquid water content in the atmosphere over the oceans closely reflects the precipitation patterns associated with the convectively and baroclinically active regions. Together with the remotely sensed surface wind speed that is causing the sea surface stress, the data collected reveal the manner in which the ocean-atmosphere system is operating. Prominent differences in the water vapor patterns from one year to the next, or from month to month, are associated with anomalies in the wind and geopotential height fields. In association with such circulation anomalies the precipitation patterns deduced from the meteorological network over adjacent continents also reveal anomalous distributions.

Prabhakara, C.

Nimbus 7 SMMR derived seasonal variations in the water vapor, liquid water, and surface winds over the global oceans

A study based on monthly mean maps of atmospheric water vapor, liquid water, and surface wind derived from Nimbus-7 SMMR over the oceans for 13 months, is examined. A discussion of the retrieval technique used to derive the parameters is presented. The seasonal changes in the strength and position of several of the parameter features are revealed by the December 1978 and June 1979 maps. Zonal averages of the water vapor, liquid water, and surface wind for December and June are compared with information derived from conventional measurements and the results are presented in graphs.

Prabhakara, C.

Satellite derived atmosphere water vapor as a tracer of large scale interactions between the atmosphere and ocean

Two water-vapor distributions and the accompanying circulation patterns which occurred over the North and South Atlantic Ocean during February 1979 are described. It is shown that scanning multichannel microwave radiometer observations from the Nimbus-7 satellite are used to remotely sense the vertically integrated atmospheric water vapor and liquid water, and the surface wind speed over the ocean and that they provide information on the ocean-atmosphere interaction. To provide evidence of the events revealed in the satellite observations, FGGE data are used.

Short, D. A.

Simple energy balance model resolving the seasons and the continents - Application to the astronomical theory of the ice ages

An analysis is undertaken of the properties of a one-level seasonal energy balance climate model having explicit, two-dimensional land-sea geography, where land and sea surfaces are strictly distinguished by the local thermal inertia employed and transport is governed by a smooth, latitude-dependent diffusion mechanism. Solutions of the seasonal cycle for the cases of both ice feedback exclusion and inclusion yield good agreements with real data, using minimal turning of the adjustable parameters. Discontinuous icecap growth is noted for both a solar constant that is lower by a few percent and a change of orbital elements to favor cool Northern Hemisphere summers. This discontinuous sensitivity is discussed in the context of the Milankovitch theory of the ice ages, and the associated branch structure is shown to be analogous to the 'small ice cap' instability of simpler models.

North, G. R.

Interannual variability and climatic noise in satellite-observed outgoing longwave radiation

Upwelling-IR observations of the North Pacific by polar orbiters NOAA 3, 4, 5, and 6 and TIROS-N from 1974 to 1981 are analyzed statistically in terms of interannual variability (IAV) in monthly averages and climatic noise due to short-term weather fluctuations. It is found that although the daily variance in the observations is the same in summer and winter months, and although IAV in winter is smaller than that in summer, the climatic noise in winter is so much smaller that a greater fraction of winter anomalies are statistically significant. The smaller winter climatic noise level is shown to be due to shorter autocorrelation times. It is demonstrated that increasing averaging area does not reduce the climatic noise level, suggesting that continuing collection of high-resolution satellite IR data on a global basis is necessary if better models of short-term variability are to be constructed.

Short, D. A.

Climatic response to a time varying solar constant

Recent measurements of the solar constant, theoretical arguments, and climatic measurements combined with signal processing suggest the possibility that the solar constant varies significantly on time scales ranging from billions of years to 11-yr (sunspot) cycles, and even to scales of a few weeks. Simple climate models with a time varying solar constant are examined here, with emphasis on the heat balance models (North et al., 1981). Linear heat balance model results are presented for high (10 cycles/yr) and low (0.1 cycle/yr) frequencies, providing a useful guide in estimating the direct heat response to solar variability.

North, G. R.

Cloud fluctuation statistics

A space-time statistical analysis of total outgoing infrared radiation is used to determine the gross features of day-to-day cloudiness fluctuations over the Pacific Ocean in summer and winter. IR fluctuations arise from the passage of cloudiness systems through a grid box as well as the creation and destruction of cloudiness in the box. Which process dominates depends upon the size of the box relative to the size, speed and persistence time of a typical cloudiness system. In most regions the statistical analysis yields advection speeds characteristic of 700 mb mean flow with spatial dependence resembling the 300 mb mean flow. Spatial scales less than 2000 km predominate, smaller scales having less persistence. Characteristic time scales are on the order of one or two days, even for a grid box spanning the entire North Pacific storm track. This result is remarkable in view of the much longer time scales commonly associated with atmospheric disturbances. Apparently many cloudiness systems are created and destroyed during the lifetime of a single disturbance.

Cahalan, R. F.

Evidence for wavelike anomalies with short meridional and large zonal scales in the lower stratospheric temperature field

Global microwave brightness temperature measurements are analyzed to investigate the range of meridional wavelengths 2000-3000 km where spectral studies reveal larger than expected variance. The data, from the TIROS-N Microwave Sounding Unit, are sensitive to lower stratospheric temperatures (30-150 mb). The results reveal striking temperature anomalies with short meridional wavelengths (2000-3000 km) and long zonal wavelengths (zonal wavenumbers 1-4). The anomalies, with amplitudes approximately 1-2 K, extend from the equatorial region to at least as high as 70 deg N and 70 deg S during January 1979. The features exhibit slow eastward movement or else are nearly stationary for several days. In the Northern Hemisphere, comparison with NMC data reveals that the strongest features tend to be associated with major jet streams.

Stanford, J. L.

Satellite-inferred morning-to-evening cloudiness changes

Outgoing infrared radiation values inferred from radiance measurements in the water vapor window taken at approximately 0900 and 2100 LT by scanning radiometers aboard the polar orbiting NOAA satellites are compared in order to determine whether a significant diurnal variation exists. Data with a resolution of 2.5 deg in latitude and longitude are mapped for latitudes between 50 deg N and 50 deg S for two seasons, June-August 1975 and December 1975-February 1976. Over land regions and coastal waters it is found that the 12-h differences in outgoing IR are dominated by middle and high clouds, likely of convective origin. Over the tropical oceans there is evidence of a morning bias in high cloudiness (possibly of convective origin) and low cloudiness (stratus, stratocumulus and trade wind cumulus), and an evening bias in middle cloudiness. Because of the compensation between these three cloud regimes the net morning to evening differences in outgoing IR are rather small except over the eastern oceans where the low cloud regime predominates and tends to produce a weak but statistically significant evening maximum.

Short, D. A.