Engineering topics

Short, David A.

Publications and source records attributed to Short, David A..

At least 19 records

NASA NTRS2007

An Analysis of Peak Wind Speed Data from Collocated Mechanical and Ultrasonic Anemometers

This study compared peak wind speeds reported by mechanical and ultrasonic anemometers at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center (CCAFS/KSC) on the east central coast of Florida and Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) on the central coast of California. Launch Weather Officers, forecasters, and Range Safety analysts need to understand the performance of wind sensors at CCAFS/KSC and VAFB for weather warnings, watches, advisories, special ground processing operations, launch pad exposure forecasts, user Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) forecasts and evaluations, and toxic dispersion support. The legacy CCAFS/KSC and VAFB weather tower wind instruments are being changed from propeller-and-vane (CCAFS/KSC) and cup-and-vane (VAFB) sensors to ultrasonic sensors under the Range Standardization and Automation (RSA) program. Mechanical and ultrasonic wind measuring techniques are known to cause differences in the statistics of peak wind speed as shown in previous studies. The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and the 30th Weather Squadron (30 WS) requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to compare data between the RSA ultrasonic and legacy mechanical sensors to determine if there are significant differences. Note that the instruments were sited outdoors under naturally varying conditions and that this comparison was not designed to verify either technology. Approximately 3 weeks of mechanical and ultrasonic wind data from each range from May and June 2005 were used in this study. The CCAFS/KSC data spanned the full diurnal cycle, while the VAFB data were confined to 1000-1600 local time. The sample of 1-minute data from numerous levels on five different towers on each range totaled more than 500,000 minutes of data (482,979 minutes of data after quality control). The ten towers were instrumented at several levels, ranging from 12 ft to 492 ft above ground level. The ultrasonic sensors were collocated at the same vertical levels as the mechanical sensors and typically within 15 ft horizontally of each another. Data from a total of 53 RSA ultrasonic sensors, collocated with mechanical sensors were compared. The 1- minute average wind speed/direction and the 1-second peak wind speed/direction were compared.

Short, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

RSA/Legacy Wind Sensor Comparison: Eastern Range - Part 2

This report describes a comparison of data from ultrasonic and propeller-and-vane anemometers on 5 wind towers at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. The ultrasonic sensors are scheduled to replace the Legacy propeller-and-vane sensors under the Range Standardization and Automation (RSA) program. Because previous studies have noted differences between peak wind speeds reported by mechanical and ultrasonic wind sensors, the latter having no moving parts, the 30th and 45th Weather Squadrons wanted to understand possible differences between the two sensor types. The period-of-record was 13-30 May 2005, A total of 357,626 readings of 1-minute average and peak wind speed/direction from each sensor type were used. Statistics of differences in speed and direction were used to identify 15 out of 19 RSA sensors having the most consistent performance, with respect to the Legacy sensors. RSA average wind speed data from these 15 showed a small positive bias of 0.38 kts. A slightly larger positive bias of 0.94 kts was found in the RSA peak wind speed.

Short, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

RSA/Legacy Wind Sensor Comparison: Western Range - Part 1

This report describes a comparison of data from ultrasonic and cup-and-vane anemometers on 5 wind towers at Vandenberg AFB. The ultrasonic sensors are scheduled to replace the Legacy cup-and-vane sensors under the Range Standardization and Automation (RSA) program. Because previous studies have noted differences between peak wind speeds reported by mechanical and ultrasonic wind sensors, the latter having no moving parts, the 30th and 45th Weather Squadrons wanted to understand possible differences between the two sensor types. The period-of-record was 13-30 May 2005. A total of 153,961 readings of I-minute average and peak wind speed/direction from each sensor type were used. Statistics of differences in speed and direction were used to identify 18 out of 34 RSA sensors having the most consistent performance, with respect to the Legacy sensors. Data from these 18 were used to form a composite comparison. A small positive bias in the composite RSA average wind speed increased from +0.5 kts at 15 kts, to +1 kt at 25 kts. A slightly larger positive bias in the RSA peak wind speed increased from +1 kt at 15 kts, to +2 kts at 30 kts.

Short, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Severe Weather Forecast Decision Aid

This report presents a 15-year climatological study of severe weather events and related severe weather atmospheric parameters. Data sources included local forecast rules, archived sounding data, Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) data, surface and upper air maps, and two severe weather event databases covering east-central Florida. The local forecast rules were used to set threat assessment thresholds for stability parameters that were derived from the sounding data. The severe weather events databases were used to identify days with reported severe weather and the CGLSS data was used to differentiate between lightning and non-lightning days. These data sets provided the foundation for analyzing the stability parameters and synoptic patterns that were used to develop an objective tool to aid in forecasting severe weather events. The period of record for the analysis was May - September, 1989 - 2003. The results indicate that there are certain synoptic patterns more prevalent on days with severe weather and some of the stability parameters are better predictors of severe weather days based on locally tuned threat values. The results also revealed the stability parameters that did not display any skill related to severe weather days. An interactive web-based Severe Weather Decision Aid was developed to assist the duty forecaster by providing a level of objective guidance based on the analysis of the stability parameters, CGLSS data, and synoptic-scale dynamics. The tool will be tested and evaluated during the 2005 warm season.

Bauman, William H., III↗

NASA NTRS2005

An Analysis of Peak Wind Speed Data from Collocated Mechanical and Ultrasonic Anemometers

This study focuses on a comparison of peak wind speeds reported by mechanical and ultrasonic anemometers at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center (CCAFS/KSC) on the east central coast of Florida and Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) on the central coast of California. The legacy mechanical wind instruments on CCAFS/KSC and VAFB weather towers are being changed from propeller-and-vane (CCAFS/KSC) and cup-and-vane (VAFB) sensors to ultrasonic sensors under the Range Standardization and Automation (RSA) program. The wind tower networks on KSC/CCAFS and VAFB have 41 and 27 towers, respectively. Launch Weather Officers, forecasters, and Range Safety analysts at both locations need to understand the performance of the new wind sensors for a myriad of reasons that include weather warnings, watches, advisories, special ground processing operations, launch pad exposure forecasts, user Launch Commit Criteria (LCC) forecasts and evaluations, and toxic dispersion support. The Legacy sensors measure wind speed and direction mechanically. The ultrasonic RSA sensors have no moving parts. Ultrasonic sensors were originally developed to measure very light winds (Lewis and Dover 2004). The technology has evolved and now ultrasonic sensors provide reliable wind data over a broad range of wind speeds. However, because ultrasonic sensors respond more quickly than mechanical sensors to rapid fluctuations in speed, characteristic of gusty wind conditions, comparisons of data from the two sensor types have shown differences in the statistics of peak wind speeds (Lewis and Dover 2004). The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and the 30 WS requested the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) to compare data from RSA and Legacy sensors to determine if there are significant differences in peak wind speed information from the two systems.

Short, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Effect of Clouds on Shuttle Imaging

This report describes the results of the AMU's task for determining the effect of clouds on optical imaging of the Space Shuttle launch vehicle during its ascent phase from lift-off to Solid Rocket Booster (SRB) Separation. This effort was motivated by Recommendation R3.4-1 from the Columbia Accident Investigation Board Report. The AMU developed a 3-dimensional (3D) model to forecast the probability that at any time from lift-off to SRB separation, at least three of the ascent imaging cameras would have a view of the Shuttle unobstructed by cloud. Because current observational and modeling capabilities do not permit accurate forecasts of cloud morphology and location, the AMU simulated obscuration of the lines-of-sight (LOS) from a network of cameras to the Shuttle by idealized cloud-fields placed randomly within the 3D domain. For each random realization of numerous cloud-field scenarios the number of simultaneous views of the Shuttle was computed from the LOS data between lift-off and SRB separation. The percent of time with 3 simultaneous views was averaged from 100 random realizations of each scenario. Analyses of the percent of time viewable were made to determine its sensitivity to cloud amount, cloud base height, cloud thickness, cloud horizontal dimensions, and an upgrade of the camera network.

Short, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Radar Evaluation of Optical Cloud Constraints to Space Launch Operations

Weather constraints to launching space vehicles are designed to prevent loss of the vehicle or mission due to weather hazards (See, e.g., Ref 1). Constraints include Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) designed to avoid natural and triggered lightning. The LLCC currently in use at most American launch sites including the Eastern Range and Kennedy Space Center require the Launch Weather Officer to determine the height of cloud bases and tops, the location of cloud edges, and cloud transparency. The preferred method of making these determinations is visual observation, but when that isn't possible due to darkness or obscured vision, it is permissible to use radar. This note examines the relationship between visual and radar observations in three ways: A theoretical consideration of the relationship between radar reflectivity and optical transparency. An observational study relating radar reflectivity to cloud edge determined from in-situ measurements of cloud particle concentrations that determine the visible cloud edge. An observational study relating standard radar products to anvil cloud transparency. It is shown that these three approaches yield results consistent with each other and with the radar threshold specified in Reference 2 for LLCC evaluation.

Merceret, Francis J.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Effect of Clouds on Optical Imaging of the Space Shuttle During the Ascent Phase: A Statistical Analysis Based on a 3D Model

Clouds are highly effective in obscuring optical images of the Space Shuttle taken during its ascent by ground-based and airborne tracking cameras. Because the imagery is used for quick-look and post-flight engineering analysis, the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) recommended the return-to-flight effort include an upgrade of the imaging system to enable it to obtain at least three useful views of the Shuttle from lift-off to at least solid rocket booster (SRB) separation (NASA 2003). The lifetimes of individual cloud elements capable of obscuring optical views of the Shuttle are typically 20 minutes or less. Therefore, accurately observing and forecasting cloud obscuration over an extended network of cameras poses an unprecedented challenge for the current state of observational and modeling techniques. In addition, even the best numerical simulations based on real observations will never reach "truth." In order to quantify the risk that clouds would obscure optical imagery of the Shuttle, a 3D model to calculate probabilistic risk was developed. The model was used to estimate the ability of a network of optical imaging cameras to obtain at least N simultaneous views of the Shuttle from lift-off to SRB separation in the presence of an idealized, randomized cloud field.

FROM↗

NASA NTRS2004

Nowcasting Thunderstorm Anvil Clouds Over KSC/CCAFS

Electrified thunderstorm anvil clouds extend the threat of natural and triggered lightning to space launch and landing operations far beyond the immediate vicinity of thunderstorm cells. The deep convective updrafts of thunderstorms transport large amounts of water vapor, super-cooled water droplets and ice crystals into the upper troposphere, forming anvil clouds, which are then carried downstream by the prevailing winds in the anvil formation layer. Electrified anvil clouds have been observed over the space launch and landing facilities of Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), emanating from thunderstorm activity more than 200 km distant. Space launch commit criteria and flight rules require launch and landing vehicles to avoid penetration of the non-transparent portion of anvil clouds. The life cycles of 167 anvil clouds over the Florida peninsula and its coastal waters were documented using GOES-8 visible imagery on 50 anvil case days during the months of May through July 2001. Anvil clouds were found to propagate at the speed and direction of upper-tropospheric winds in the layer from 300-to-l50 mb, approximately 9.4 km to 14 km, with an effective average transport lifetime of 2 hours and a standard deviation of approximately 30 minutes. The effective lifetime refers to the time required for the nontransparent leading edge of an anvil cloud to reach its maximum extent before beginning to dissipate. The propagation and lifetime information was incorporated into the design, construction and implementation of an objective short-range anvil forecast tool based on upper-air observations, for use on the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System within the Range Weather Operations facility of the 45th Weather Squadron at CCAFS and the Spaceflight Meteorology Group at Johnson Space Center.

Short, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

On the Positive Bias of Peak Horizontal Velocity from an Idealized Doppler Profiler

In the presence of 3-D turbulence, peak horizontal velocity estimates from an idealized Doppler profiler are found to be positively biased due to an incomplete specification of the vertical velocity field. The magnitude of the bias was estimated by assuming that the vertical and horizontal velocities can be separated into average and perturbation values and that the vertical and horizontal velocity perturbations are normally distributed. Under these assumptions, properties of the Type-I Extreme Value Distribution for maxima, known as the Gumbel distribution, can be used to obtain an analytical solution of the bias. The bias depends on geometric properties of the profiler configuration, the variance in the horizontal velocity, and the unresolved variance in the vertical velocity. When these variances are normalized by the average horizontal velocity, the bias can be mapped as a simple function of the normalized variances.

Short, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

MiniSODAR(TradeMark) Evaluation

This report describes results of the AMU's Instrumentation and Measurement task for evaluation of the Doppler miniSODAR(TradeMark) System (DmSS). The DmSS is an acoustic wind profiler providing high resolution data to a height of approx. 410 ft. The Boeing Company installed a DmSS near Space Launch Complex 37 in mid-2002 as a substitute for a tall wind tower and plans to use DmSS data for the analysis and forecasting of winds during ground and launch operations. Peak wind speed data are of particular importance to Launch Weather Officers of the 45th Weather Squadron for evaluating user Launch Commit Criteria. The AMU performed a comparative analysis of wind data between the DmSS and nearby wind towers from August 2002 to July 2003. The DmSS vertical profile of average wind speed showed good agreement with the wind towers. However, the DMSS peak wind speeds were higher, on average, than the wind tower peak wind speeds by about 25%. A statistical model of an idealized Doppler profiler was developed and it predicted that average wind speeds would be well determined but peak wind speeds would be over-estimated due to an under-specification of vertical velocity variations in the atmosphere over the Profiler.

Short, David A.↗

NASA NTRS2000

IRIS Product Recommendations

This report presents the Applied Meteorology Unit's (AMU) evaluation of SIGMET Inc.'s Integrated Radar Information System (IRIS) Product Generator and recommendations for products emphasizing lightning and microburst tools. The IRIS Product Generator processes radar reflectivity data from the Weather Surveillance Radar, model 74C (WSR-74C), located on Patrick Air Force Base. The IRIS System was upgraded from version 6.12 to version 7.05 in late December 1999. A statistical analysis of atmospheric temperature variability over the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) Weather Station provided guidance for the configuration of radar products that provide information on the mixed-phase (liquid and ice) region of clouds, between 0 C and -20 C. Mixed-phase processes at these temperatures are physically linked to electrification and the genesis of severe weather within convectively generated clouds. Day-to-day variations in the atmospheric temperature profile are of sufficient magnitude to warrant periodic reconfiguration of radar products intended for the interpretation of lightning and microburst potential of convectively generated clouds. The AMU also examined the radar volume-scan strategy to determine the scales of vertical gaps within the altitude range of the 0 C to -20 C isotherms over the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/CCAFS area. This report present's two objective strategies for designing volume scans and proposes a modified scan strategy that reduces the average vertical gap by 37% as a means for improving radar observations of cloud characteristics in the critical 0 C to -20 C layer. The AMU recommends a total of 18 products, including 11 products that require use of the IRIS programming language and the IRIS User Product Insert feature. Included is a cell trends product and display, modeled after the WSR-88D cell trends display in use by the National Weather Service.

Short, David A.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Rainfall Estimation Over Tropical Oceans: Area Average Rain Rate - 1

Multichannel dual polarization microwave radiometer SSM/I observations over oceans do not contain sufficient information to differentiate quantitatively the rain from other hydrometeors on a scale comparable to the radiometer field of view (approx. 30 km). For this reason we have developed a method to retrieve average rain rate over a mesoscale grid box of approx. 300 x 300 sq km area over the TOGA COARE region where simultaneous radiometer and radar observations are available for four months (Nov. 92 to Feb. 93). The rain area in the grid box, inferred from the scattering depression due to hydrometeors in the 85 Ghz brightness temperature, constitutes a key parameter in this method. Then the spectral and polarization information contained in all the channels of the SSM/I is utilized to deduce a second parameter. This is the ratio S/E of scattering index S, and emission index E calculated from the SSM/I data. The rain rate retrieved from this method over the mesoscale area can reproduce the radar observed rain rate with a correlation coefficient of about 0.85. Furthermore monthly total rainfall estimated from this method over that area has an average error of about 15%.

Cuddapah, Prabhakara↗

NASA NTRS1996

A New Parametrization of the Rain Drop Size Distribution

This paper revisits the problem of finding a parametric form for the rain drop size distribution (DSD) which 1) is an appropriate model for tropical rainfall, and 2) involves statistically independent parameters. Using TOGA/COARE data, we derive a parametrization which meets these criteria. This new parametrization is an improvement on the one that was derived in [3] using TRMM ground truth data from Darwin, Australia. The new COARE data allows us to verify that the spatial variability fo the two

rain↗

NASA NTRS1994

Optical Rain Gauge Performance: Second Workshop on Optical Rain Gauge Measurements

The primary focus of the workshop was on the performance and reliability of STi mini-Optical Rain Gauges in a number of environments, including deployments on ships and buoys in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean during the TOGA/COARE field experiment, deployments on buoys in U.S. coastal waters, and comparisons with other types of rain gauges on the Virginia coast and in Florida. The workshop was attended by 20 investigators, representing 10 different institutions, who gathered to present new results obtained since the first workshop (April 1993), to discuss problems, to consider solutions, and to chart future directions. Post-TOGA/COARE calibration studies were also presented.

Short, David A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Vibration (?) spikes during natural rain events

Limited analysis of optical rain gauge (ORG) data from shipboard and ground based sensors has shown the existence of spikes, possibly attributable to sensor vibration, while rain is occurring. An extreme example of this behavior was noted aboard the PRC#5 on the evening of December 24, 1992 as the ship began repositioning during a rain event in the TOGA/COARE IFA. The spikes are readily evident in the one-second resolution data, but may be indistinguishable from natural rain rate fluctuations in subsampled or averaged data. Such spikes result in increased rainfall totals.

Short, David A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A probability distribution model for rain rate

A systematic approach is suggested for modeling the probability distribution of rain rate. Rain rate, conditional on rain and averaged over a region, is modeled as a temporally homogeneous diffusion process with appropiate boundary conditions. The approach requires a drift coefficient-conditional average instantaneous rate of change of rain intensity-as well as a diffusion coefficient-the conditional average magnitude of the rate of growth and decay of rain rate about its drift. Under certain assumptions on the drift and diffusion coefficients compatible with rain rate, a new parametric family-containing the lognormal distribution-is obtained for the continuous part of the stationary limit probability distribution. The family is fitted to tropical rainfall from Darwin and Florida, and it is found that the lognormal distribution provides adequate fits as compared with other members of the family and also with the gamma distribution.

Kedem, Benjamin↗

NASA NTRS1993

A study of the threshold method utilizing raingage data

The threshold method for estimation of area-average rain rate relies on determination of the fractional area where rain rate exceeds a preset level of intensity. Previous studies have shown that the optimal threshold level depends on the climatological rain-rate distribution (RRD). It has also been noted, however, that the climatological RRD may be composed of an aggregate of distributions, one for each of several distinctly different synoptic conditions, each having its own optimal threshold. In this study, the impact of RRD variations on the threshold method is shown in an analysis of 1-min rainrate data from a network of tipping-bucket gauges in Darwin, Australia. Data are analyzed for two distinct regimes: the premonsoon environment, having isolated intense thunderstorms, and the active monsoon rains, having organized convective cell clusters that generate large areas of stratiform rain. It is found that a threshold of 10 mm/h results in the same threshold coefficient for both regimes, suggesting an alternative definition of optimal threshold as that which is least sensitive to distribution variations. The observed behavior of the threshold coefficient is well simulated by assumption of lognormal distributions with different scale parameters and same shape parameters.

Short, David A.↗