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Skillman, W. C.

Publications and source records attributed to Skillman, W. C..

10 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1985

Synoptic scale forecast skill and systematic errors in the MASS 2.0 model

The synoptic scale performance characteristics of MASS 2.0 are determined by comparing filtered 12-24 hr model forecasts to same-case forecasts made by the National Meteorological Center's synoptic-scale Limited-area Fine Mesh model. Characteristics of the two systems are contrasted, and the analysis methodology used to determine statistical skill scores and systematic errors is described. The overall relative performance of the two models in the sample is documented, and important systematic errors uncovered are presented.

Koch, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Evaluation of the synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of a mesoscale atmospheric simulation system

The overall performance characteristics of a limited area, hydrostatic, fine (52 km) mesh, primitive equation, numerical weather prediction model are determined in anticipation of satellite data assimilations with the model. The synoptic and mesoscale predictive capabilities of version 2.0 of this model, the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0), were evaluated. The two part study is based on a sample of approximately thirty 12h and 24h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns during spring and early summer. The synoptic scale evaluation results benchmark the performance of MASS 2.0 against that of an operational, synoptic scale weather prediction model, the Limited area Fine Mesh (LFM). The large sample allows for the calculation of statistically significant measures of forecast accuracy and the determination of systematic model errors. The synoptic scale benchmark is required before unsmoothed mesoscale forecast fields can be seriously considered.

Koch, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS1983

An evaluation of the synoptic- and mesoscale predictability of the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS 2.0) model

A report is presented regarding the synoptic- and mesoscale predictive capabilities of a regional-scale numerical weather prediction model known as the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation System (MASS, Version 2.0). The development of this model has been discussed by Kaplan et al. (1982). An evaluation of the performance of MASS 2.0 is based on the study of a sample of approximately thirty 12 h and 24 h forecasts of atmospheric flow patterns over the U.S. during spring and early summer of 1982. A description of model systems is provided, and synoptic-scale evaluation methods are considered along with aspects of mesoscale evaluation methodology, examples of coherent mesoscale information provided by MASS 2.0, the results of a diagnostic study of mesoscale convective systems (MCS), and the results of a limited real-time forecast experiment.

Koch, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS1979

In situ aircraft verification of the quality of satellite cloud winds over oceanic regions

A 5-year aircraft experiment to verify the quality of satellite cloud winds over oceans using in situ aircraft Inertial Navigation System wind measurements is presented. Cloud motions measured by satellite and aircraft wind measurements that were coincident in time and space, and the results from the experiment are for undisturbed to moderately disturbed oceanic weather regimes. The results show that satellite measured cumulus cloud motions are good estimators of the cloud-base wind for trade wind and subtropical high regions. The average magnitude of the vector differences between the cloud motion and the cloud-base wind was determined; for cumulus clouds near frontal regions, the cloud motions agreed best with the mean cloud layer wind. For a very limited sample, cirrus cloud motions most closely followed the mean wind in the cloud layer.

Hasler, A. F.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Satellite detection of a long curving cirrus plume

On August 23, 1978, a long cirrus plume, as detected by the GOES E satellite, made a sharp anticyclonic turn and traveled a total distance of 2800 km from the generating thunderstorm, as determined from satellite imagery. During a five-hour period the leading edge moved a distance of 550 km, giving a speed of 30 m/sec. This is in good agreement with the pertinent wind speeds at the presumed height of the cloud, which may indicate that cirrus evaporation may not have been too important. In a relatively dense portion of the cirrus the minimum equivalent blackbody temperature was 226 K.

Wexler, R.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Insitu aircraft verification of the quality of satellite cloud winds over oceanic regions

A five year aircraft experiment to verify the quality of satellite cloud winds over oceans using in situ aircraft inertial navigation system wind measurements is presented. The final results show that satellite measured cumulus cloud motions are very good estimators of the cloud base wind for trade wind and subtropical high regions. The average magnitude of the vector differences between the cloud motion and the cloud base wind is given. For cumulus clouds near frontal regions, the cloud motion agreed best with the mean cloud layer wind. For a very limited sample, cirrus cloud motions also most closely followed the mean wind in the cloud layer.

Hasler, A. F.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Wind estimates from cloud motions - Results from Phases I, II and III of an in situ aircraft verification experiment

An experiment is in progress to verify geostationary-satellite-derived cloud-motion wind estimates by in-situ aircraft wind-velocity measurements. One or more low-level aircraft equipped with Inertial Navigation Systems (INS) were used to define the vertical extent and horizontal motion of a cloud and to measure the ambient wind field. A high-level aircraft, also equipped with an INS, took photographs to describe the horizontal extent of the cloud field and to measure cloud motion. To date the experiment has been conducted over tropical oceans and in the western Gulf of Mexico. A total of 60 h have been spent tracking some 40 tropical cumulus and five cirrus clouds. Results for tropical cumulus clouds indicate excellent agreement between the cloud motion and the wind at cloud base. The magnitude of the vector difference between the cloud motion and the cloud-base wind is less than 1.3 m/s for 67% of the cases with track lengths of 1 h or longer. Similarly, the vector differences between the cloud motion and the wind at sub-cloud (150 m), mid-cloud, and cloud-top levels are 1.5, 3.6 and 7.0 m/s, respectively. The cirrus cloud motions agreed best with the mean wind in the cloud layer with a vector difference of about 1.6 m/s.

Hasler, A. F.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Wind estimates from cloud motions - Preliminary results from phases I, II and III of an in situ aircraft verification experiment

The accuracy of wind estimates derived from cloud motion is under investigation. Aircraft measurements of the ambient wind field have been compared with simultaneous inertial navigation system descriptions of the extent and motion of 40 tropical cumulus and 5 cirrus clouds. Preliminary results indicate that cloud-motion wind estimates are sufficiently accurate to be used in sensitive divergence, vorticity, and vertical motion calculations. The magnitude of the vector difference between the cirrus cloud velocity and the mean wind of the cloud layer was found to be about 1.6 m/sec. The major source of error is thought to be in determination of the position of the cloud. In the case of cumulus clouds, the magnitude of the vector difference between the aircraft-measured cloud motion and the cloud-base wind is less than 1.3 m/sec.

Hasler, A. F.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Wind estimates from cloud motions: Preliminary results from phases 1, 2, and 3 of an in situ aircraft verification experiment

Low level aircraft equipped with Inertial Navigation Systems (INS) were used to define the vertical extent and horizontal motion of a cloud and to measure the ambient wind field. A high level aircraft, also equipped with an INS, took photographs to describe the horizontal extent of the cloud field and to measure cloud motion. The aerial photographs were also used to make a positive identification in a satellite picture of the cloud observed by the low level aircraft. The experiment was conducted over the tropical oceans in the vicinity of Florida, Puerto Rico, Panama and in the Western Gulf of Mexico. Results for tropical cumulus clouds indicate excellent agreement between the cloud motion and the wind at the cloud base. The magnitude of the vector difference between the cloud motion and the cloud base wind is less than 1.3 m/sec for 67% of the cases with track lengths of 1 hour or longer. The cirrus cloud motions agreed best with the mean wind in the cloud layer with a vector difference of about 1.6 m/sec.

Hasler, A. F.↗