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Smith, Mark A.

Publications and source records attributed to Smith, Mark A..

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

CLimate Impact: Determining Etiology thRough pAthways (CLDERA)

Climate impacts have broad economic, health, political, and national security ramifications. Societally relevant impacts are typically farther downstream, are the product of multiple interacting processes, and can arise over small regions and timeframes because their sources are short-term and localized. Short-term forcings (as can be seen in volcanic eruptions, climatic tipping points (e.g., the collapse of rainforests or the disappearance of sea ice), or in increasingly plausible climate interventions) fundamentally possess low signal-to-noise and could benefit from accounting for the multiple conditional processes through which a downstream impact arises. Under the Grand Challenge LDRD CLDERA (CLimate impacts: Discovering Etiology thRough pAthways), we have developed tools to enable downstream impact attribution from geographically and temporally localized source forcings in the climate. CLDERA developed methods that can distinguish how a localized source drives the climate system to respond with particular impacts. The how is embodied in pathways – the spatio-temporally evolving chain of physical processes that connects a source to a series of increasingly distant impacts. Novel analytic methods in pursuit of downstream impact attribution were developed and demonstrated on simulations and observations of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. As described within this report we have • developed stratospheric expertise and aerosol modeling capabilities in E3SM, • created original methods to detect and model pathways from source-to-impact, and • advanced climate attribution through novel methods, cases, and approaches. Further, CLDERA developed a tiered verification process consisting of controlled datasets to prototype, verify, and refine the original method development. CLDERA increased Sandia’s footprint in the climate analytics community and developed new climate collaborations whilst also creating a cadre of climate analysts at Sandia. The products from CLDERA have been extensive with a total of 9 journal articles published, 12 articles submitted and under review, and an additional 8 articles in preparation. We have produced 1750 simulated years and developed 9 code-bases. This report details these accomplishments and serves as a summary of the work completed during the CLDERA Grand Challenge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decision Science for Machine Learning (DeSciML)

The increasing use of machine learning (ML) models to support high-consequence decision making drives a need to increase the rigor of ML-based decision making. Critical problems ranging from climate change to nonproliferation monitoring rely on machine learning for aspects of their analyses. Likewise, future technologies, such as incorporation of data-driven methods into the stockpile surveillance and predictive failure analysis for weapons components, will all rely on decision-making that incorporates the output of machine learning models. In this project, our main focus was the development of decision scientific methods that combine uncertainty estimates for machine learning predictions, with a domain-specific model of error costs. Other focus areas include uncertainty measurement in ML predictions, designing decision rules using multiobjecive optimization, the value of uncertainty reduction, and decision-tailored uncertainty quantification for probability estimates. By laying foundations for rigorous decision making based on the predictions of machine learning models, these approaches are directly relevant to every national security mission that applies, or will apply, machine learning to data, most of which entail some decision context.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Systems, methods and computer program products for electric grid control

Systems, methods and computer program products for maintaining and controlling distributed energy resources (DERs), such as wind, solar, water and storage renewable energy resources, within an acceptable error margin are disclosed. The systems and processes control the energy output of these DERs in real time within the error margin.

Johnson, Jay↗
DOE OSTI2016

Complex Systems Models and Their Applications: Towards a New Science of Verification, Validation & Uncertainty Quantification

This report contains the written footprint of a Sandia-hosted workshop held in Albuquerque, New Mexico, June 22-23, 2016 on “Complex Systems Models and Their Applications: Towards a New Science of Verification, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification,” as well as of pre-work that fed into the workshop. The workshop’s intent was to explore and begin articulating research opportunities at the intersection between two important Sandia communities: the complex systems (CS) modeling community, and the verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) community The overarching research opportunity (and challenge) that we ultimately hope to address is: how can we quantify the credibility of knowledge gained from complex systems models, knowledge that is often incomplete and interim, but will nonetheless be used, sometimes in real-time, by decision makers?

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2016

Holistic Portfolio Optimization using Directed Mutations

Genetic algorithms provide attractive options for performing nonlinear multi-objective combinatorial design optimization, and they have proven very useful for optimizing individual systems. However, conventional genetic algorithms fall short when performing holistic portfolio optimizations in which the decision variables also include the integer counts of multiple system types over multiple time periods. When objective functions are formulated as analytic functions, we can formally differentiate with respect to system counts and use the resulting gradient information to generate favorable mutations in the count variables. We apply several variations on this basic idea to an idealized hanging chain example to obtain >> 1000x speedups over conventional genetic algorithms in both single - and multi-objective cases. We develop a more complex example of a notional military portfolio that includes combinatorial design variables and dependency constraints between the design choices. In this case, our initial results are mixed, but many variations are still open to further research.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2013

Strong Temporal Variation Over One Saturnian Year: From Voyager to Cassini

Here we report the combined spacecraft observations of Saturn acquired over one Saturnian year (approximately 29.5 Earth years), from the Voyager encounters (1980-81) to the new Cassini reconnaissance (2009-10). The combined observations reveal a strong temporal increase of tropic temperature (approximately 10 Kelvins) around the tropopause of Saturn (i.e., 50 mbar), which is stronger than the seasonal variability (approximately a few Kelvins). We also provide the first estimate of the zonal winds at 750 mbar, which is close to the zonal winds at 2000 mbar. The quasi-consistency of zonal winds between these two levels provides observational support to a numerical suggestion inferring that the zonal winds at pressures greater than 500 mbar do not vary significantly with depth. Furthermore, the temporal variation of zonal winds decreases its magnitude with depth, implying that the relatively deep zonal winds are stable with time.

Cassini↗
NASA NTRS2012

Emitted Power Of Jupiter Based On Cassini CIRS And VIMS Observations

The emitted power of Jupiter and its meridional distribution are determined from observations by the Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) and Visual and Infrared Spectrometer (VIMS) onboard Cassini during its flyby en route to Saturn in late 2000 and early 2001. Jupiter's global- average emitted power and effective temperature are measured to be 14.10+/-0.03 W/sq m and 125.57+/-0.07 K, respectively. On a global scale, Jupiter's 5-micron thermal emission contributes approx. 0.7+/-0.1 % to the total emitted power at the global scale, but it can reach approx. 1.9+/-0.6% at 15degN. The meridional distribution of emitted power shows a significant asymmetry between the two hemispheres with the emitted power in the northern hemisphere 3.0+/-0.3% larger than that in the southern hemisphere. Such an asymmetry shown in the Cassini epoch (2000-01) is not present during the Voyager epoch (1979). In addition, the global-average emitted power increased approx. 3.8+/-1.0% between the two epochs. The temporal variation of Jupiter's total emitted power is mainly due to the warming of atmospheric layers around the pressure level of 200 mbar. The temporal variation of emitted power was also discovered on Saturn (Li et al., 2010). Therefore, we suggest that the varying emitted power is a common phenomenon on the giant planets.

Li, Liming↗
NASA NTRS2012

Energy Budgets of the Giant Planets and Titan

As a fundamental property, the energy budget affects many aspeCts of planets and their moons, such as thermal structure, meteorology, and evolution. We use the observations from two Cassini spectrometers (i.e., CIRS and VIMS) to explore one important component of the energy budget the total emitted power of Jupiter, Saturn, and Titan (Li et al., 2010, 2011, 2012). Key results are: (1) The Cassini observations precisely measure the global-average emitted power of three bodies: 14.l0+/-0.03 Wm(exp -2), 4.952+/-0.035 Wm(exp -2), and 2.834+/-0.012 Wm(exp -2) for Jupiter, Saturn, and Titan, respectively. (2) The meridional distribution of emitted power displays a significant asymmetry between the northern and southern hemispheres on Jupiter and Saturn. On Titan, the meridional distribution of emitted power is basically symmetric around the equator. (3) Comparing with the Voyager measurements, the new Cassini observations reveal a significant temporal variation of emitted power on both Jupiter and Saturn: i) The asymmetry between the two hemisphere shown in the Cassini epoch (2000-2010) is not present in the Voyager epoch (1979-1980); and ii) From the Voyager epoch to the Cassini epoch, the global-average emitted power appeared to increase by approx 3.8% for Jupiter and approx 6.4% for Saturn. (4) Together with previous measurements of the absorbed solar power on Titan, the new Cassini measurements of emitted power provide the first observational evidence of the global energy balance on Titan. The uncertainty in the previous measurements of absorbed solar energy places an upper limit on its energy imbalance of 6.0% on Titan. The exploration of emitted power is the first part of a series of studies examining the temporal variability of the energy budget on the giant planets and Titan. Currently, We are measuring the absorbed solar energy in order to determine new constraints on the energy budgets of Jupiter, Saturn, and Titan.

Liming, Li↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Global Energy Balance of Titan

We report the first measurement of the global emitted power of Titan. Longterm (2004-2010) observations conducted by the Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) onboard Cassini reveal that the total emitted power by Titan is (2.84 plus or minus 0.01) x 10(exp 8) watts. Together with previous measurements of the global absorbed solar power of Titan, the CIRS measurements indicate that the global energy budget of Titan is in equilibrium within measurement error. The uncertainty in the absorbed solar energy places an upper limit on the energy imbalance of 5.3%.

Li, Liming↗
NASA NTRS2007

GaAs Photovoltaics on Polycrystalline Ge Substrates

High efficiency III-V multijunction solar cells deposited on metal foil or even polymer substrates can provide tremendous advantages in mass and stowage, particularly for planetary missions. As a first step towards that goal, poly-crystalline p/i/n GaAs solar cells are under development on polycrystalline Ge substrates. Organo Metallic Vapor Phase Epitaxy (OMVPE) parameters for pre-growth bake, nucleation and deposition have been examined. Single junction p/i/n GaAs photovoltaic devices, incorporating InGaP front and back window layers, have been grown and processed. Device performance has shown a dependence upon the thickness of a GaAs buffer layer deposited between the Ge substrate and the active device structure. A thick (2 m) GaAs buffer provides for both increased average device performance as well as reduced sensitivity to variations in grain size and orientation. Illumination under IR light (lambda > 1 micron), the cells showed a Voc, demonstrating the presence of an unintended photoactive junction at the GaAs/Ge interface. The presence of this junction limited the efficiency to approx.13% (estimated with an anti-refection coating) due to the current mismatch and lack of tunnel junction interconnect.

Wilt, David M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

LEO Flight Testing of GaAs on Si Solar Cells Aboard MISSES

Previous research efforts have demonstrated small area (0.04 cm) GaAs on Si (GaAs/Si) solar cells with AM0 efficiencies in excess of 17%. These results were achieved on Si substrates coated with a step graded buffer of Si(x),Ge(1-x) alloys graded to 100% Ge. Recently, a 100-fold increase in device area was accomplished for these devices in preparation for on-orbit testing of this technology aboard Materials International Space Station Experiment number 5 (MISSE5). The GaAs/Si MISSE5 experiment contains five (5) GaAs/Si test devices with areas of lcm(exp 2) and 4cm(exp 4) as well as two (2) GaAs on GaAs control devices. Electrical performance data, measured on-orbit for three (3) of the test devices and one (1) of the control devices, will be telemetered to ground stations daily. After approximately one year on orbit, the MISSE5 payload will be returned to Earth for post flight evaluation. This paper will discuss the development of the GaAs/Si devices for the MISSE5 flight experiment and will present recent ground and on-orbit performance data.

Wilt, David M.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Atmospheric-Pressure-Spray, Chemical- Vapor-Deposited Thin-Film Materials Being Developed for High Power-to- Weight-Ratio Space Photovoltaic Applications

The key to achieving high specific power (watts per kilogram) space photovoltaic arrays is the development of high-efficiency thin-film solar cells that are fabricated on lightweight, space-qualified substrates such as Kapton (DuPont) or another polymer film. Cell efficiencies of 20 percent air mass zero (AM0) are required. One of the major obstacles to developing lightweight, flexible, thin-film solar cells is the unavailability of lightweight substrate or superstrate materials that are compatible with current deposition techniques. There are two solutions for working around this problem: (1) develop new substrate or superstrate materials that are compatible with current deposition techniques, or (2) develop new deposition techniques that are compatible with existing materials. The NASA Glenn Research Center has been focusing on the latter approach and has been developing a deposition technique for depositing thin-film absorbers at temperatures below 400 C.

Hepp, Aloysius F.↗