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Smith, O. E.

Publications and source records attributed to Smith, O. E..

At least 19 records

A Compendium of Wind Statistics and Models for the NASA Space Shuttle and Other Aerospace Vehicle Programs

The wind profile with all of its variations with respect to altitude has been, is now, and will continue to be important for aerospace vehicle design and operations. Wind profile databases and models are used for the vehicle ascent flight design for structural wind loading, flight control systems, performance analysis, and launch operations. This report presents the evolution of wind statistics and wind models from the empirical scalar wind profile model established for the Saturn Program through the development of the vector wind profile model used for the Space Shuttle design to the variations of this wind modeling concept for the X-33 program. Because wind is a vector quantity, the vector wind models use the rigorous mathematical probability properties of the multivariate normal probability distribution. When the vehicle ascent steering commands (ascent guidance) are wind biased to the wind profile measured on the day-of-launch, ascent structural wind loads are reduced and launch probability is increased. This wind load alleviation technique is recommended in the initial phase of vehicle development. The vehicle must fly through the largest load allowable versus altitude to achieve its mission. The Gumbel extreme value probability distribution is used to obtain the probability of exceeding (or not exceeding) the load allowable. The time conditional probability function is derived from the Gumbel bivariate extreme value distribution. This time conditional function is used for calculation of wind loads persistence increments using 3.5-hour Jimsphere wind pairs. These increments are used to protect the commit-to-launch decision. Other topics presented include the Shuttle Shuttle load-response to smoothed wind profiles, a new gust model, and advancements in wind profile measuring systems. From the lessons learned and knowledge gained from past vehicle programs, the development of future launch vehicles can be accelerated. However, new vehicle programs by their very nature will require specialized support for new databases and analyses for wind, atmospheric parameters (pressure, temperature, and density versus altitude), and weather. It is for this reason that project managers are encouraged to collaborate with natural environment specialists early in the conceptual design phase. Such action will give the lead time necessary to meet the natural environment design and operational requirements, and thus, reduce development costs.

Smith, O. E.

Ambient mass density effects on the International Space Station (ISS) microgravity experiments

The Marshall engineering thermosphere model was specified by NASA to be used in the design, development and testing phases of the International Space Station (ISS). The mass density is the atmospheric parameter which most affects the ISS. Under simplifying assumptions, the critical ambient neutral density required to produce one micro-g on the ISS is estimated using an atmospheric drag acceleration equation. Examples are presented for the critical density versus altitude, and for the critical density that is exceeded at least once a month and once per orbit during periods of low and high solar activity. An analysis of the ISS orbital decay is presented.

Smith, O. E.

A wind model for launch vehicle design

A new vector wind profile model is described based on the properties of the quadrivariate normal distribution which will help establish preliminary design ranges for angle of attack, angle of sideslip, aerodynamic pressure, and other launch vehicle flight variables. The model produces wind profiles that are a reasonable substitute for measured wind profile samples. The model wind profiles produce dispersion in aerodynamic load indicators that cover the dispersion range calculated from an extensive sample of Jimsphere wind profiles. This is accomplished with only 12 model wind profiles compared to 1800 Jimsphere profiles for a selected reference altitude. This represents an opportunity for a considerable reduction of computational effort during design phases that require many iterations to establish the merit of various design philosophies.

Adelfang, S. I.

Atmospheric statistics for aerospace vehicle operations

Statistical analysis of atmospheric variables was performed for the Shuttle Transportation System (STS) design trade studies and the establishment of launch commit criteria. Atmospheric constraint statistics have been developed for the NASP test flight, the Advanced Launch System, and the National Launch System. The concepts and analysis techniques discussed in the paper are applicable to the design and operations of any future aerospace vehicle.

Smith, O. E.

Wind profile perturbation analysis for STS

Two case studies of the relationship between STS ascent structural loads and wind profile characteristics are described. In the first case study, a wind profile with relatively weak winds is used to demonstrate the importance of launch vehicle velocity relative to the air and its effect on loads. In the second study, a pair of wind profiles is used to show how the determination of load exceedances is strongly influenced by the wind load persistence allowances for the baseline and two day-of-launch (DOL) steering commands called I-LOADs. Characteristics of the wind profiles and associated trajectory variable and wind-sensitive load indicators are examined. Energy spectra of in-plane and out-of-plane wind component and a load indicator are presented. An analysis of load indicator sensitivity to wind perturbation energy in the 1600-6400 m wavelength band for baseline and DOL I-LOAD is described.

Adelfang, S. I.

Wind models for the NSTS ascent trajectory biasing for wind load alleviation

New concepts are presented for aerospace vehicle ascent wind profile biasing. The purpose for wind biasing the ascent trajectory is to provide ascent wind loads relief and thus decrease the probability for launch delays due to wind loads exceeding critical limits. Wind biasing trajectories to the the profile of monthly mean winds have been widely used for this purpose. The wind profile models presented give additional alternatives for wind biased trajectories. They are derived from the properties of the bivariate normal probability function using the available wind statistical parameters for the launch site. The analytical expressions are presented to permit generalizations. Specific examples are given to illustrate the procedures. The wind profile models can be used to establish the ascent trajectory steering commands to guide the vehicle through the first stage. For the National Space Transportation System (NSTS) program these steering commands are called I-loads.

Smith, O. E.

Wind models for the NSTS ascent trajectory biasing for wind load alleviation

New concepts are presented for aerospace vehicle ascent wind profile biasing. The purpose for wind biasing the ascent trajectory is to provide ascent wind loads relief and thus decrease the probability for launch delays due to wind loads exceeding critical limits. Wind biasing trajectories to the profile of monthly mean winds have been widely used for this purpose. The wind profile models presented give additional alternatives for wind biased trajectories. They are derived from the properties of the bivariate normal probability function using the available wind statistical parameters for the launch site. The analytical expressions are presented to permit generalizations. Specific examples are given to illustrate the procedures. The wind profile models can be used to establish the ascent trajectory steering commands to guide the vehicle through the first stage. For the National Space Transportation System (NSTS) program these steering commands are called I-loads.

Smith, O. E.

Ascent structural wind loads for the National Space Transportation System (NSTS)

An aerospace vehicle must withstand the design ascent structural load or be within any flight constraint to safely reach orbit. For the NSTS an assessment for flight readiness is made for each mission. This assessment for ascent loads and performance parameters is stated in terms of launch probability derived from samples of Jimsphere wind profiles. For the day of launch operations an allowance is made for the ascent load variability due to the wind profile variability over a 3.5-hour period. This is the current time period required to obtain a Jimsphere measurement and perform a complete load simulation prior to launch time. The load variability is derived from a sample of 3.5-hour Jimsphere wind profile pairs. It is applied as a conditional percentile value given the wind load at 3.5 hours prior to launch time. Probability models are used for these analyses. Application of the univariate, bivariate and conditional forms of the extreme value (Gumbel) probability distribution to the analysis of extreme wind speeds, wind shears and vehicle loads is described.

Smith, O. E.

Winds aloft statistical analysis in support of day of launch Shuttle systems evaluation

In connection with the development of the Meteorological Interactive Data Display System (MIDDS) for utilization by the Launch Systems Evaluation Advisory Team (LSEAT), requirements have been established to expand the pre-launch analysis of winds aloft for the Space Shuttle. Statistical analyses developed for the system include: comparison of pre-launch wind component profiles to wind component extremes at each altitude calculated from launch site historical data; conditional probability ellipses for wind vectors at a future time given the wind vector at an initial time; comparison of observed extreme wind shear and associated wind speed with launch site historical data utilizing the bivariate extreme value (Gumbel) distribution; estimation of extremes of wind speed or wind shear at a future time given the extremes of either variable at an initial time, utilizing the conditional extreme value distribution; power spectrum analysis for tracking wind perturbation energy in sequential pre-launch Jimsphere wind profiles.

Adelfang, S. I.

Some properties of a 5-parameter bivariate probability distribution

A five-parameter bivariate gamma distribution having two shape parameters, two location parameters and a correlation parameter was developed. This more general bivariate gamma distribution reduces to the known four-parameter distribution. The five-parameter distribution gives a better fit to the gust data. The statistical properties of this general bivariate gamma distribution and a hypothesis test were investigated. Although these developments have come too late in the Shuttle program to be used directly as design criteria for ascent wind gust loads, the new wind gust model has helped to explain the wind profile conditions which cause large dynamic loads. Other potential applications of the newly developed five-parameter bivariate gamma distribution are in the areas of reliability theory, signal noise, and vibration mechanics.

Tubbs, J. D.

A Note on the Ratio of Positively Correlated Gamma Variates

The density function and corresponding moments for the ratio of correlated gamma distributed variates were derived. A class of bivariate gamma distributions was also considered, and additional distributional results which use this class of functions were also derived. Similar results, by using a different class of bivariate gamma distributions, are presented.

Tubbs, J. D.

Information retrieval from wide-band meteorological data - An example

The methods proposed by Smith and Adelfang (1981) and Smith et al. (1982) are used to calculate probabilities over rectangles and sectors of the gust magnitude-gust length plane; probabilities over the same regions are also calculated from the observed distributions and a comparison is also presented to demonstrate the accuracy of the statistical model. These and other statistical results are calculated from samples of Jimsphere wind profiles at Cape Canaveral. The results are presented for a variety of wavelength bands, altitudes, and seasons. It is shown that wind perturbations observed in Jimsphere wind profiles in various wavelength bands can be analyzed by using digital filters. The relationship between gust magnitude and gust length is modeled with the bivariate gamma distribution. It is pointed out that application of the model to calculate probabilities over specific areas of the gust magnitude-gust length plane can be useful in aerospace design.

Adelfang, S. I.

Atmospheric constraint statistics for the Space Shuttle mission planning

The procedures used to establish statistics of atmospheric constraints of interest to the Space Shuttle mission planning are presented. The statistics considered are for the frequency of occurrence, runs, and time conditional probabilities of several atmospheric constraints for each of the Space Shuttle mission phases. The mission phases considered are (1) prelaunch, (2) launch operations, (3) return to launch site, (4) abort once around landing, and (5) end of mission landing. Previously announced in STAR as N82-33417

Smith, O. E.

Range reference atmosphere models

A description is given of the methods used to establish the statistical parameters and models for wind and various thermodynamic quantities at an altitude of 0-70 km for nine geographical locations. It is noted that wind is modeled as a vector quantity using the bivariate normal probability function. With the five parameters of the bivariate normal distribution, the distribution for wind speed is derived as a generalized Rayleigh distribution. In addition, the frequency of wind direction is derived, and the conditional distribution of wind speed given the wind direction is derived. It is pointed out that these and other wind models are consistent with the rigorous mathematical properties of the bivariate normal probability theory. The thermodynamic quantities are consistent with the hydrostatic equation and the equation of state for the mean values. With these methods, many statistical relationships can be derived.

Smith, O. E.

Atmospheric constraint statistics for the Space Shuttle mission planning

The procedures used to establish statistics of atmospheric constraints of interest to the Space Shuttle mission planning are presented. The statistics considered are for the frequency of occurrence, runs, and time conditional probabilities of several atmospheric constrants for each of the Space Shuttle mission phases. The mission phases considered are (1) prelaunch, (2) launch, (3) return to launch site, (4) abort once around landing, and (5) end of mission landing.

Smith, O. E.

A bivariate gamma probability distribution with application to gust modeling

A five-parameter gamma distribution (BGD) having two shape parameters, two location parameters, and a correlation parameter is investigated. This general BGD is expressed as a double series and as a single series of the modified Bessel function. It reduces to the known special case for equal shape parameters. Practical functions for computer evaluations for the general BGD and for special cases are presented. Applications to wind gust modeling for the ascent flight of the space shuttle are illustrated.

Smith, O. E.