Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Smith, Steven J..
Ammonia has been proposed as a shipping fuel, yet potential adverse side-effects are poorly understood. Here we argue that if nitrogen releases from ammonia are not tightly controlled, the scale of the demands of maritime transport are such that the global nitrogen cycle could be substantially altered.
Existing scientific literature shows that health and agricultural impacts attributable to air pollution are significant and should be considered in the integrated analysis of human and Earth-system interactions. The implementation of policies that affect the power sector, the composition of the vehicle fleet or the investments and deployment of different energy sources will in turn result in different levels of air pollution. Even though the various methodologies for estimating the impacts of air pollution, such as exposure-response functions, are extensively applied by the scientific community, they are normally not included in integrated assessment modeling outputs.
We present a new method to infer emissions and lifetimes of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) based on tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) observations together with reanalysis wind fields for cities located in polluted backgrounds. Since the accuracy of the method is difficult to assess due to lack of “true values” that can be used as a benchmark, we apply the method to synthetic NO 2 observations derived from the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model at a high horizontal spatial resolution of 4 km × 4 km for cities over the continental United States. We compare the inferred emissions and lifetimes with the values given by the NU-WRF model to evaluate the method. The method is applicable to 26 US cities. The derived results are generally in good agreement with the values given by the model, with the relative differences of 2 % ± 17 % (mean ± standard deviation) and 15 % ± 25 % for lifetimes and emissions, respectively. Our investigation suggests that the use of wind data prior to the satellite overpass time improves the performance of the method. The correlation coefficients between inferred and NU-WRF lifetimes increase from 0.56 to 0.79 and for emissions increase from 0.88 to 0.96 when comparing results based on wind fields sampled simultaneously with satellite observations and averaged over 9 h data prior to satellite observations, respectively. We estimate that uncertainties in NO x lifetime and emissions arising from the method are approximately 15 % and 20 %, respectively, for typical (US) cities. The total uncertainties reach up to 43% (lifetimes) and 45% (emissions) by considering the additional uncertainties associated with satellite NO 2 observations and wind data. We expect this new method to be applicable to NO 2 observations from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and geostationary satellites, such as Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) or the Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring Pollution (TEMPO) instrument, to estimate urban NO x emissions and lifetimes globally.
South Asia is home to some of the most significant air quality challenges in the world. More than 99% of the region’s population is exposed to unhealthy fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations, as defined by the World Health Organization. Recent policy initiatives in South Asia show that air quality policy is a priority, given the health impacts of air pollution. At the same time, capacity and data to assess and address air pollution remains limited in many areas. The main objective of this report is to outline a set of publicly-available tools that can be used to inform policies to improve air quality in South Asia. The report primarily focuses on tools such as emission inventories and integrated modeling systems with country-level resolution and illustrates their air quality assessment capabilities through examples and brief technical summaries. The report focuses on: (a) the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) that provides historical emissions of key pollutants for all countries in South Asia, and (b) profiles an analysis of Indian air pollution and policy scenarios, using several integrated modeling tools. Both of these examples draw on recent research and data that outlines the scale of the challenge as well as the policy options for reducing air pollution in the region. The report concludes with key recommendations for regional stakeholders working towards mitigating air pollution in South Asia.
In FY21 we worked to update the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to match historical energy consumption and technology cost trends and near-term economic growth expectations using available historical data out to 2019. We have done this in a way that builds the capacity to more easily update the model in the future to make GCAM a robust and readily updatable tool for decarbonization analysis.
India is a rapidly developing economy with interrelated air quality, sustainable development, and climate change mitigation goals. There are unique challenges to achieving each of these goals as well as potential tradeoffs among them. This study examines the implications of possible future energy, climate, and air pollution control policies and measures in India through 2050. We take a scenario approach using the GCAM global energy-climate-land model combined with the Hector simple climate model and the TM5-FASST air quality source-receptor model to examine energy, climate and air quality outcomes. Reducing use of traditional biomass in buildings can reduce primary carbonaceous particulate emissions well below 2015 levels. However, policies that are more ambitious than current plans would likely be required to reduce SO 2 and NO x emissions well below 2015 levels. Among single policy cases considered, pricing of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and expansion of natural gas infrastructure have the largest impacts on overall energy system changes relative to the reference scenario. Ambitious air pollution control and GHG policies lead to the largest reductions in air pollution concentrations and radiative forcing, respectively. However, ambitious air pollution control and GHG policies differ in the extent to which they support or impede other policy objectives. Forcing increases due to reduced aerosols from ambitious air pollution policies can be mitigated, at least in part, by applying air pollution control and GHG policies together.
To track progress towards keeping global warming well below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C, as agreed in the Paris Agreement, comprehensive up-to-date and reliable information on anthropogenic emissions and removals of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is required. Here we compile a new synthetic dataset on anthropogenic GHG emissions for 1970–2018 with a fast-track extension to 2019. Our dataset is global in coverage and includes CO 2 emissions, CH 4 emissions, N 2 O emissions, as well as those from fluorinated gases (F-gases: HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 , NF 3 ) and provides country and sector details. We build this dataset from the version 6 release of the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR v6) and three bookkeeping models for CO 2 emissions from land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF). We assess the uncertainties of global greenhouse gases at the 90 % confidence interval (5th–95th percentile range) by combining statistical analysis and comparisons of global emissions inventories and top-down atmospheric measurements with an expert judgement informed by the relevant scientific literature. We identify important data gaps for F-gas emissions. The agreement between our bottom-up inventory estimates and top-down atmospheric-based emissions estimates is relatively close for some F-gas species (~ 10 % or less), but estimates can differ by an order of magnitude or more for others. Our aggregated F-gas estimate is about 10 % lower than top-down estimates in recent years. However, emissions from excluded F-gas species such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) or hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are cumulatively larger than the sum of the reported species. Using global warming potential values with a 100-year time horizon from the Sixth Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global GHG emissions in 2018 amounted to 58 ± 6.1 GtCO 2 eq. consisting of CO 2 from fossil fuel combustion and industry (FFI) 38 ± 3.0 GtCO 2 , CO 2 -LULUCF 5.7 ± 4.0 GtCO 2 , CH 4 10 ± 3.1 GtCO 2 eq., N2O 2.6 ± 1.6 GtCO 2 eq., and F-gases 1.3 ± 0.40 GtCO 2 eq. Initial estimates suggest further growth of 1.3 GtCO 2 eq. in GHG emissions to reach 59 ± 6.6 GtCO 2 eq. by 2019. Our analysis of global trends in anthropogenic GHG emissions over the past 5 decades (1970–2018) highlights a pattern of varied but sustained emissions growth. There is high confidence that global anthropogenic GHG emissions have increased every decade, and emissions growth has been persistent across the different (groups of) gases. There is also high confidence that global anthropogenic GHG emissions levels were higher in 2009–2018 than in any previous decade and that GHG emissions levels grew throughout the most recent decade. While the average annual GHG emissions growth rate slowed between 2009 and 2018 (1.2 % yr –1 ) compared to 2000–2009 (2.4 % yr –1 ), the absolute increase in average annual GHG emissions by decade was never larger than between 2000–2009 and 2009–2018. Our analysis further reveals that there are no global sectors that show sustained reductions in GHG emissions. There are a number of countries that have reduced GHG emissions over the past decade, but these reductions are comparatively modest and outgrown by much larger emissions growth in some developing countries such as China, India, and Indonesia. There is a need to further develop independent, robust, and timely emissions estimates across all gases. As such, tracking progress in climate policy requires substantial investments in independent GHG emissions accounting and monitoring as well as in national and international statistical infrastructures. The data associated with this article (Minx et al., 2021) can be found at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5566761.
Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) using analytic representations of cloud and aerosol distributions and processes. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of AIEs that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates by the simple model are sensitive to preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, preindustrial accumulation mode radius, width of the accumulation mode, size of primary particles, cloud thickness, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Estimates of present-day AIEs as low as 5 W/sq m and as high as 0.3 W/sq m are obtained for plausible sets of parameter values. Estimates are surprisingly linear in emissions. The estimates depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models, which adds to understanding of the dependence on AIE uncertainty on uncertainty in parameter values.
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Participating in a Navy STTR project to develop a system capable of the 'real-time' detection and quanitification of nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) warfare agents, and of related industrial chemicals including NBC agent synthesis by-products in water and in air immediately above the water's surface. This project uses JPL's Soft Ionization Membrane (SIM) technology which totally ionizes molecules without fragmentation (a process that can markedly improve the sensitivity and specificity of molecule compostition identification), and JPL's Rotating Field Mass Spectrometer (RFMS) technology which has large enough dynamic mass range to enable detection of nuclear materials as well as biological and chemical agents. This Navy project integrates these JPL Environmental Monitoring UnitS (REMUS) an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV). It is anticipated that the REMUS AUV will be capable of 'real-time' detection and quantification of NBC warefare agents.
The present work is part of a series of measurements of metastable lifetimes of highly-charged ions (HCIs) which contribute to optical absorption, emission and energy balance in the Interstellar Medium (ISM), stellar atmospheres, etc. Measurements were carried out using the 14-GHz electron cyclotron resonance ion source (ECRIS) at the JPL HCI facility. The ECR provides useful currents of charge states such as C(sup(1-6)+), Mg(sup(1-6)+) and Fe(sup(1-17)+). In this work the HCI beam is focused into a Kingdon electrostatic ion trap for measuring lifetimes via optical decays.
There is increasing emphasis during this decade on understanding energy balance and phenomena observed in high electron temperature plasmas. The UV spectral return from FUSE, the X-ray spectral return from the HETG on Chandra and the LETGS 011 XMM-Newton are just beginning. Line emissions are almost entirely from highly-charged ions (HCIs) of C, N, 0, Ne, Mg, S, Si, Ca, and Fe. The Constellation-X mission will provide X-ray spectroscopy up to photon energies of 0.12 nm (10 keV) where primary line emitters will be HCIs. A variety of atomic parameters are required to model the stellar and solar plasma. These include cross sections for excitation, ionization, charge-exchange, X-ray emission, direct and indirect recombination, lifetimes and branching ratios, and dependences on l, m mixing by external E and B fields. In almost all cases the atomic quantities are calculated, and few comparisons to experiment have been carried out. Collision strengths and Einstein A-values are required to convert the observed spectral intensities to electron temperatures and densities in the stellar plasma. The JPL electron energy-loss and merged beam approach has been used to measure absolute collision strengths in a number of ions, with critical comparison made to the best available theories.
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Proposed device for measuring distribution of masses and velocities of ions in plasma or ion beam of general type denoted variously as mass, velocity, and energy analyzers. Yields indications of charge-to-mass ratios and velocities; from these quantities, one computes masses and energies if one also either measures charges of ions by other means or else makes realistic assumption that each ion carries small number (usually 1) of fundamental units of electric charge. In comparison with older devices of this type, device smaller, and operates faster, yielding simultaneous indications of both charge-to-mass ratios and velocities.
Experimental and theoretical excitation cross sections are reported for the transitions 2s(exp 2) 2p-2(exp 0) yield 2s2p(exp 2)P-4, D-2, and S-2 in C II. The transition wavelengths (energies) are 2324 A (5.34 eV), 1335 x (9.29 eV), and 1036 A (11.97 eV), respectively. Use is made of electron energy-loss and merged beams methods. The energy range covered is from below each threshold (4 - 11 eV) to 15-24 eV. As in previous work with O II, care was taken to assess and minimize the metastable fraction in the C II beam, to account for contributions from nearby energy-loss features, and to collect the full angular range of inelastically scattered electrons. A comparison is made for each transition between experiment and new 8-state R-matrix calculations. Subject headings: atomic data ultraviolet: general
Experimental and theoretical excitation cross sections are reported for the first forbidden transition 4S(O) -- 2S(2)2p(3) 2D(O) (lambda-lambda 3726, 3729) and the first allowed (resonance) transition 4S(O) -- 2s2p(4) 4P(lambda-833) in O II. Use is made of electron energy loss and merged-beams methods. The electron energy range covered is 3.33 (threshold) to 15 eV for the S -- D transition, and 14.9 (threshold) to 40 eV for the S -- P transition. Care was taken to assess and minimize the metastable fraction of the O II beam. An electron mirror was designed and tested to reflect inelastically backscattered electrons into the forward direction to account for the full range of polar scattering angles. Comparisons are made between present experiments and 11-state R-matrix calculations. Calculations are also presented for the 4S(O) -- 2s(2)2p(3)2P(O) (lambda-2470) transition.
We discuss the possible observational signatures resulting from the interaction of a nuclear wind with an elliptical host galaxy. The ionization parameter in emission-line gas, deduced from spatially resolved spectral observations, will be a strong indicator of the nuclear wind as well as the possible pickup of stellar mass loss by the wind. If the wind is sufficiently luminous, galactic X-ray profiles will exhibit an extended flattening. Detailed study of individual objects will be necessary for conclusive evidence of nuclear winds. We find that nuclear winds are unlikely to cause the disruption of the radio jets in wide-angle tail radio galaxies. Previously proposed mechanisms whereby nuclear winds cause the formation of narrow absorption line systems or stellar shells are not likely to occur if the interstellar medium of the host elliptical galaxy is hot.