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Smith, Timothy A.

Publications and source records attributed to Smith, Timothy A..

xesn: Echo state networks powered by Xarray and Dask

Xesn is a Python package that allows scientists to easily design Echo State Networks (ESNs) for forecasting problems. ESNs are a Recurrent Neural Network architecture introduced by Jaeger (2001) that are part of a class of techniques termed Reservoir Computing. One defining characteristic of these techniques is that all internal weights are determined by a handful of global, scalar parameters, thereby avoiding problems during backpropagation and reducing training time significantly. Because this architecture is conceptually simple, many scientists implement ESNs from scratch, leading to questions about computational performance. Xesn offers a straightforward, standard implementation of ESNs that operates efficiently on CPU and GPU hardware. The package leverages optimization tools to automate the parameter selection process, so that scientists can reduce the time finding a good architecture and focus on using ESNs for their domain application. Importantly, the package flexibly handles forecasting tasks for out-of-core, multi-dimensional datasets, eliminating the need to write parallel programming code. Xesn was initially developed to handle the problem of forecasting weather dynamics, and so it integrates naturally with Python packages that have become familiar to weather and climate scientists such as Xarray (Hoyer & Hamman, 2017). However, the software is ultimately general enough to be utilized in other domains where ESNs have been useful, such as in signal processing (Jaeger & Haas, 2004).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Temporal Subsampling Diminishes Small Spatial Scales in Recurrent Neural Network Emulators of Geophysical Turbulence

The immense computational cost of traditional numerical weather and climate models has sparked the development of machine learning (ML) based emulators. Because ML methods benefit from long records of training data, it is common to use data sets that are temporally subsampled relative to the time steps required for the numerical integration of differential equations. Here, we investigate how this often overlooked processing step affects the quality of an emulator's predictions. We implement two ML architectures from a class of methods called reservoir computing: (a) a form of Nonlinear Vector Autoregression (NVAR), and (b) an Echo State Network (ESN). Despite their simplicity, it is well documented that these architectures excel at predicting low dimensional chaotic dynamics. We are therefore motivated to test these architectures in an idealized setting of predicting high dimensional geophysical turbulence as represented by Surface Quasi-Geostrophic dynamics. In all cases, subsampling the training data consistently leads to an increased bias at small spatial scales that resembles numerical diffusion. Interestingly, the NVAR architecture becomes unstable when the temporal resolution is increased, indicating that the polynomial based interactions are insufficient at capturing the detailed nonlinearities of the turbulent flow. The ESN architecture is found to be more robust, suggesting a benefit to the more expensive but more general structure. Spectral errors are reduced by including a penalty on the kinetic energy density spectrum during training, although the subsampling related errors persist. Future work is warranted to understand how the temporal resolution of training data affects other ML architectures.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Constraining chaos: Enforcing dynamical invariants in the training of reservoir computers

Drawing on ergodic theory, we introduce a novel training method for machine learning based forecasting methods for chaotic dynamical systems. The training enforces dynamical invariants—such as the Lyapunov exponent spectrum and the fractal dimension—in the systems of interest, enabling longer and more stable forecasts when operating with limited data. The technique is demonstrated in detail using reservoir computing, a specific kind of recurrent neural network. Finally, results are given for the Lorenz 1996 chaotic dynamical system and a spectral quasi-geostrophic model of the atmosphere, both typical test cases for numerical weather prediction.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Evaluation of Programming Language-Aware Diffs for Improving Developer Productivity

As the number of supported platforms for SNL software increases, so do the testing requirements. This increases the total time spent between when a developer submits code for testing, and when tests are completed. This in turn leads developers to hold off submitting code for testing, meaning that when code is ready for testing there's a lot more of it. This increases the likelihood of merge conflicts which the developer must resolve by hand -- because someone else touched the files near the lines the developer touched. Current text-based diff tools often have trouble resolving conflicts in these cases. Work in Europe and Japan has demonstrated that, using programming language aware diff tools (e.g., using the abstract syntax tree (AST) a compiler might generate) can reduce the manual labor necessary to resolve merge conflicts. These techniques can detect code blocks which have moved, as opposed than current text-based diff tools, which only detect insertions / deletions of text blocks. In this study, we evaluate one such tool, GumTree, and see how effective it is as a replacement for traditional text-based diff approaches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Method for Real-Time Model Based Structural Anomaly Detection

A system and methods for real-time model based vehicle structural anomaly detection are disclosed. A real-time measurement corresponding to a location on a vehicle structure during an operation of the vehicle is received, and the real-time measurement is compared to expected operation data for the location to provide a modeling error signal. A statistical significance of the modeling error signal to provide an error significance is calculated, and a persistence of the error significance is determined. A structural anomaly is indicated, if the persistence exceeds a persistence threshold value.

Smith, Timothy A.↗

Fast, Affordable, Science and Technology Satellite (FASTSAT) Huntsville-01 (HSV-01) Spacecraft Lessons Learned Report

The Fast Affordable Science and Technology Satellite (FASTSAT) project is a path finding effort to produce reliable satellite busses for different applications at an unprecedented speed and low cost. The project is designed to be a generational project and the first satellite produced is the Huntsville -01 (HSV-01) spacecraft. The subject of this report is the lessons learned gained during the development, testing, and up to the delivery of the FASTSAT HSV -01 spacecraft. The purpose of this report is to capture the major findings that will greatly benefit the future FASTSAT satellites and perhaps other projects interested in pushing the boundaries for cost and schedule. The FASTSAT HSV -01 primary objectives, success criteria, and team partners are summarized to give a frame of reference to the lessons learned.

Smith, Timothy A.↗