Development of a Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System to Specify Ionospheric Weather
Reviews the development of a multimode space weather system. The system assimilates a range of ionospheric, electrodynamic and thermospheric data models.
Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Sojka, Jan J..
Reviews the development of a multimode space weather system. The system assimilates a range of ionospheric, electrodynamic and thermospheric data models.
During the International Polar Year (IPY) two Incoherent Scatter Radars (ISRs) achieved close to 24/7 continuous observations. This presentation describes their data sets and specifically how they can provide the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) a fiduciary E- and F-region ionosphere description for solar minimum conditions in both the auroral and polar cap regions. The ionospheric description being electron density, ion temperature and electron temperature profiles from as low as 90 km extending to several scale heights above the F-layer peak. The auroral location is Poker Flat in Alaska at 65.1 N latitude, 212.5 E longitude where the NSF s new Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar (PFISR) is located. This location during solar minimum conditions is in the auroral region for most of the day but is at midlatitudes, equator ward of the cusp, for about 4-8 h per day dependent upon geomagnetic activity. In contrast the polar location is Svalbard, at 78.2 N latitude, 16.0 E longitude where the EISCAT Svalbard Radar (ESR) is located. For most of the day the ESR is in the Northern Polar Cap with a noon sector passage often through the dayside cusp. Of unique relevance to IRI is that these extended observations have enabled the ionospheric morphology to be distinguished between quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions. During the IPY year, 1 March 2007 - 29 February 2008, about 50 solar wind Corotating Interaction Regions (CIRs) impacted geospace. Each CIR has a two to five day geomagnetic disturbance that is observed in the ESR and PFISR observations. Hence, this data set also enables the quiet-background ionospheric climatology to be established as a function of season and local time. These two separate climatologies for the ion temperature at an altitude of 300 km are presented and compared with IRI ion temperatures. The IRI ion temperatures are about 200-300 K hotter than the observed values. However, the MSIS neutral temperature at 300 km compares favorably with the quiet-background in temperature, both in magnitude and climatology.
The objective of this grant was to study how a multi-satellite mission configuration can be optimized for maximum exploratory scientific return. NASA's Solar Terrestrial Probe (STP) concept mission Geospace Electrodynamic Connections (GEC) was the target mission for this pilot study. GEC prime mission characteristics were two fold: (i) a series of three satellites in the same orbit plane with differential spacing, and (ii) a deep-dipping phase in which these satellites could dip to altitudes as low as 130 km to explore the lower ionosphere and thermosphere. Each satellite would carry a full suite of plasma and neutral in-situ sensors and have the same dipping capability. This latter aspect would be envisaged as a series, up to 10, of deep-dipping campaigns, each lasting 10 days during which the perigee would be lowered to the desired probing depth. The challenge in optimization is to establish the scientific problems that can best be addressed by varying or selecting satellite spacing during a two-year mission while also interspersing, in this two year time frame, the deep-dipping campaigns. Although this sounds like a straightforward trade-off situation, it is complicated by the orbit precession in local time, the location of perigee, and that even the dipping campaigns will have preferred satellite spacing requirements.
The overall goal of our NASA theory research is to trace the flow of mass, momentum, and energy through the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere system taking into account the coupling, time delays, and feedback mechanisms that are characteristic of the system. Our approach is to model the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere (M-I-A) system in a self-consistent quantitative manner using unique global models that allow us to study the coupling between the different regions on a range of spatial and temporal scales. The uniqueness of our global models stems from their high spatial and temporal resolutions, the physical processes included, and the numerical techniques employed. Currently, we have time-dependent global models of the ionosphere, thermosphere, polar wind, plasmasphere, and electrodynamics. It is now becoming clear that a significant fraction of the flow of mass, momentum, and energy in the M-I-A system occurs on relatively small spatial scales. Therefore, an important aspect of our NASA Theory program concerns the effect that mesoscale (100-l000 km) density structures have on the macroscopic flows in the ionosphere, thermosphere, and polar wind. The structures can be created either by structured magnetospheric inputs (i.e., structured electric field, precipitation, or Birkeland current patterns) or by time variations of these inputs due to geomagnetic storms and substorms. Some of the mesoscale structures of interest include sun-aligned polar cap arcs, propagating plasma patches, traveling convection vortices, subauroral ion drift (SAID) channels, gravity waves, and the polar hole.
The Grant supported research addressing the question of how the NASA Solar Terrestrial Probes (STP) Mission called Geospace electrodynamics Connections (GEC) will resolve space-time structures as well as collect sufficient information to solve the coupled thermosphere-ionosphere- magnetosphere dynamics and electrodynamics. The approach adopted was to develop a high resolution in both space and time model of the ionosphere-thermosphere (I-T) over altitudes relevant to GEC, especially the deep-dipping phase. This I-T model was driven by a high- resolution model of magnetospheric-ionospheric (M-I) coupling electrodynamics. Such a model contains all the key parameters to be measured by GEC instrumentation, which in turn are the required parameters to resolve present-day problems in describing the energy and momentum coupling between the ionosphere-magnetosphere and ionosphere-thermosphere. This model database has been successfully created for one geophysical condition; winter, solar maximum with disturbed geophysical conditions, specifically a substorm. Using this data set, visualizations (movies) were created to contrast dynamics of the different measurable parameters. Specifically, the rapidly varying magnetospheric E and auroral electron precipitation versus the slower varying ionospheric F-region electron density, but rapidly responding E-region density.
The recognition and understanding of cardiovascular adaptation to spaceflight has experienced substantial advancement in the last several years. In-flight echocardiographic measurements of astronaut cardiac function on the Space Shuttle have documented a 15 percent reduction in both left ventricular volume index and stroke volume with a compensatory increase in heart rate to maintain cardiac output. To date, the reduced cardiac size and stroke volume have been presumed to be the consequence of the reduction in circulating fluid volume following diuresis and other physiological processes to reduce blood volume within a few days after orbital insertion. However, no specific mechanism for the reduced stroke volume has been elucidated. The following investigation proposes the use of a hydraulic model of the cardiovascular system to examine the possibility that the observed reduction in stroke volume may, in part, be related to fluid physics effects on heart function. The automated model is being prepared to fly as a GAS payload. The experimental apparatus consists of a pneumatically actuated, elliptical artificial ventricle connected to a closed-loop, hydraulic circuit with compliance and resistance elements to create physiologic pressure and flow conditions. The ventricle is instrumented with high-fidelity, acceleration-insensitive, catheter-tip pressure transducers (Millar Instruments) in the apex and base to determine the instantaneous ventricular pressures and (delta)P(sub LV) across the left ventricle (LVP(sub apex)-LVP(sub base). The ventricle is also instrumented with a flow probe and pressure transducers immediately upstream of the inflow valve and downstream of the outflow valve. The experiment will be microprocessor controlled with analog signals stored on the FM data tape recorder. By varying the circulating fluid volume, ventricular function can be determined for varying preload pressures with fixed afterload pressure. Pilot experiments on board the NASA KC-135 aircraft have demonstrated proof-of-concept and provided early support for the proposed hypothesis. A review of the pilot experiments and developmental progress on the GAS version of this experiment will be presented.
A data base of satellite particle, electric field, image, and plasma data was used to determine correlations between the fields and the particle auroral boundaries. A data base of 8 days of excellent coverage from all instruments was completed. The geomagnetic conditions associated with each of the selected data periods, the number of UV image passes per study day that were obtained, and the total number of UV images for each day are given in tabular form. For each of the days listed in Table 1, both Vector Electric Field Instrument (VEFI) electric potential data and LAPI integrated particle energy fluxes were obtained. On the average, between 8 and 11 passes of useful data per day were obtained. These data are displayed in a format such that either the statistical electric field model potential or the statistical precipitation energy flux could be superimposed. The Heppner and Maynard (1987) and Hardy et al. (1987) models were used for the electric potential and precipitation, respectively. In addition, the auroral image intensity along the Dynamics Explorer-2 satellite pass could be computed and plotted along with the LAPI precipitation data and Hardy et al. (1987) values.