Engineering topics

Song, Fengfei

Publications and source records attributed to Song, Fengfei.

26 records · Page 2

DOE OSTI2021

Meteorological environments associated with California wildfires and their potential roles in wildfire changes during 1984-2017

California has been seeing more wildfires in recent years, resulting in huge economic losses and threatening human health. Clarifying the meteorological environments of wildfires is foundational to improving the understanding and prediction of wildfires and their impacts. Here, 1535 California wildfires during 1984-2017 are systematically investigated. Based on two key meteorological factors - temperature and moisture anomalies - all wildfires are classified into four groups: hot-dry, hot-wet, cold-dry, cold-wet. Most (~60%) wildfires occurred on hot-dry days. Compositing the large-scale environments of the four groups shows that persistent high pressure and strong northeasterly wind descending from inland favor hot-dry conditions for wildfires. This analysis also reveals an important role of anomalies in southerly onshore flow that supports stronger convection, accompanied by more lightning flashes that provide a triggering mechanism for wildfires under hot-wet conditions. Self-organizing map analysis lends confidence in the large-scale meteorological pattern for dominating hot-dry wildfires in California. Besides wildfire occurrence, wildfire size is also influenced by meteorological anomalies through their magnitudes. Among them, moisture anomaly explains the largest fraction (~69%) of variability in wildfire sizes. Large-scale meteorological anomalies are found to play an important role in the devastating 2018 wildfire season in California. During 1984-2017, wildfire burned area has significantly increased by ~3.6% per year, indicating a doubling of burned area in 2017 relative to 1984, with the trend dominated by hot-dry wildfires in summer. Drying and warming in conjunction with strengthening of the high pressure in summer support more frequent and larger wildfires in California.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Double-ITCZ as an Emergent Constraint for Future Precipitation Over Mediterranean Climate Regions in the North Hemisphere

The semi-arid Mediterranean climate regions feature wet winter and dry summer, distinct from most other regions on Earth. In response to warming, climate models project increased precipitation in US Southwest (USSW) and decreased in Mediterranean basin (MED) during winter, but with marked uncertainty. Using a multi-model ensemble, we found that models with excessive double Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) biases tend to exaggerate the precipitation increase over USSW and understate the precipitation decrease over MED in the future. In this work, these relationships are attributed to the atmospheric circulation changes driven by the increased tropical rainfall and the weaker slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under warming, respectively. Constraining the present-day double-ITCZ with observations, the projected wetting over USSW is reduced to no change and the drying over MED is intensified by 32%. A relative reduction in future precipitation has profound societal and economic implications for these regions already under severe water stress.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Future changes in the Great Plains Low-Level Jet governed by seasonally dependent pattern changes in the North Atlantic Subtropical High

The southerly Great Plains low-level jet (GPLLJ) plays an important role in the Central US hydroclimate, but our understanding of its response to global warming remains elusive. Here we show that the GPLLJ will intensify and intrude deeper under warming in both spring and autumn but change marginally in summer. This response is governed by seasonally dependent pattern changes of the North-Atlantic subtropical high (NASH). In spring and autumn, with a substantial poleward shift in the North America westerly jet, the NASH expands poleward notably. The anomalous surface high poleward of the NASH enhances the southerly GPLLJ to its west. In summer, however, the poleward westerly-jet shift is weak and changes in the NASH manifest a westward extension, which only marginally affects the GPLLJ. Among models, the NASH expansion and GPLLJ enhancement are correlated with the poleward jet shift, highlighting its critical role in regulating the future NASH and GPLLJ changes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Contrasting Recent and Future ITCZ Changes from Distinct Tropical Warming Patterns

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is a salient feature of the Earth’s deep-tropical circulation. Here we report and explain the contrasting changes in seasonal ITCZs over recent decades and under future warming. We show that seasonal ITCZs have shifted poleward and narrowed over recent decades but are projected to shift equatorward and widen under future warming. Such contrasting changes are induced by distinct surface warming patterns. Specifically, the equatorial Pacific has cooled over recent decades with phase change in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) but in the future it will experience stronger anthropogenic warming than the tropical mean. The effect of surface warming pattern on ITCZ is consistently explained by thermodynamic and energetic theories and is demonstrated through atmosphere-only simulations forced with prescribed SST. In the coming decades, PDO may change into a positive phase. This will enhance the equatorial warming and lead to amplified ITCZ changes that are distinct from recent trends.

Zhou, Wenyu↗

DOE OSTI2020

Contrasting phase changes of precipitation annual cycle between land and ocean under global warming

The annual cycle of precipitation is a fundamental aspect of the water cycle with global ramification. Climate warming induces a robust phase delay1-5 in zonal mean tropical precipitation concomitant with an amplitude enhancement6-8. Here, we find a large land ocean contrast in the phase response of precipitation annual cycle, with a phase delay over land and a phase advance over ocean as climate warms. The phase delay over land is mainly attributed to the increase in the effective heat capacity of the atmosphere, while the phase advance over ocean is associated with a precipitation shift from land to ocean during the peak rainy season. Through the energetic constraint, this precipitation shift is closely related to the opposite changes in the amplitude of surface temperature annual cycle between land and ocean, both as consequences of basic climate feedback processes under global warming: weakening of the summer trade wind over the tropical ocean increases the surface temperature seasonal amplitude through evaporation, while an increase of the atmospheric effective heat capacity and surface cooling feedback induces opposite temperature amplitude changes over the tropical land. The opposite precipitation phase changes between land and ocean will have myriad implications for terrestrial/marine ecosystems and human activities.

Song, Fengfei↗

DOE OSTI2020

On the oceanic origin for the enhanced seasonal cycle of SST in the midlatitudes under global warming

Climate models project an enhancement in SST seasonal cycle over the midlatitude oceans under global warming. However, the maintaining mechanism for this enhancement is still under debate. This study investigates the SST seasonal cycle enhancement under quadrupling CO2 using a set of partially coupled experiments, in which the contribution from direct CO2 forcing (without the effect of wind changes) and wind effects can be isolated. Results indicate that both the direct CO2 and total wind effects contribute to the enhancement in the SST seasonal cycle, with the former (latter) effect being more important in the Northern Hemisphere (Southern Hemisphere). Further decomposition of the wind effect into the wind stress feedback and wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback through the change of wind speed reveals the importance of the wind stress-driven ocean response in the change of SST seasonal cycle, a result in contrast to a previous study that ascribed the midlatitude SST seasonal cycle change to the thermodynamic WES feedback. The direct CO2 effect regulates SST seasonal cycle mainly through the mediating effects of the ocean mixed layer depth (MLD): i) the CO2 induced warming leads to MLD shoaling, thus reducing its effective heat capacity; ii) the climatological MLD is greater in winter than summer, given the same amount of energy flux from the surface, SST warming in winter should be smaller. Notably, the surface wind seasonal cycle change due solely to the direct CO2 effect is found to bear a great resemblance to the full wind response, implicating that the direct CO2 effect is the root source for the enhancement of the midlatitude SST seasonal cycle. This is further supported by an ocean-alone experiment that replicates the SST seasonal cycle enhancement under a spatially and temporally homogeneous surface thermal forcing into the ocean.

Liu, Fukai↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Climate Simulations: Methodological Development and Results from MPAS-CAM over the U.S.

In this study, a process-oriented approach is developed to evaluate warm-season mesoscale convective system (MCS) precipitation and their favorable large-scale meteorological patterns (FLSMPs) over the U.S. This approach features a novel observation-driven MCS-tracking algorithm using infrared brightness temperature and precipitation feature at 12, 25 and 50 km resolution and metrics to evaluate the model large-scale environment favorable for MCS initiation. The tracking algorithm successfully reproduces the observed MCS statistics from a reference 4-km radar MCS database. To demonstrate the utility of the new methodologies in evaluating MCS in climate simulations with mesoscale resolution, the process-oriented approach is applied to two climate simulations produced by the Variable-Resolution Model for Prediction Across Scales coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model physics, with refined horizontal grid spacing at 50 km and 25 km over North America. With the tracking algorithm applied to simulations and observations at equivalent resolutions, the simulated number of MCS and associated precipitation amount, frequency and intensity are found to be consistently underestimated in the Central U.S., particularly from May to August. The simulated MCS precipitation shows little diurnal variation and lasts too long, while MCS precipitation area is too large and intensity is too weak. The model is able to simulate four types of observed FLSMP associated with frontal systems and low-level jets (LLJ) in spring, but the frequencies are underestimated because of low-level dry bias and weaker LLJ. Precipitation simulated under different FLSMPs peak during daytime, in contrast to the observed nocturnal peak. Implications of these findings for future model development and diagnostics are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The impacts of horizontal resolution on the seasonally-dependent biases of the northeastern Pacific ITCZ in coupled climate models.

Double-ITCZ has puzzled climate model community for more than two decades. Here, we found that over the eastern Pacific, precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) biases in the NCAR CESM1 are seasonally-dependent, with positive (negative) precipitation/SST biases during boreal summer/fall (winter/spring), although the easterly wind bias persists around the year. This seasonally-dependent bias of precipitation/SST is found to be caused by the failure of the model to reproduce the climatological seasonal wind reversal of North American monsoon. During winter/spring, the climatological easterly wind dominates, so the stronger wind speed in the model enhances the evaporation and lowers the SST. It is opposite when the climatological wind turns to westerly during summer/fall. The easterly wind bias also occurs in the atmospheric model when the observation SST is prescribed, suggesting it is of atmospheric origin. Further, the easterly wind bias is mainly evident in the lower troposphere and quite independent of time, implying the effect of complex and narrow-ranged Central American topography, which is not depicted well in the coarse model resolution. When the model resolution is doubled, both SST and precipitation are improved with the reduced easterly wind bias. During boreal spring, when ITCZ bias is most significant, the northern and southern ITCZ can be improved by 29% and 18.8% respectively in the higher resolution. Finally, we suggest that these seasonally-dependent biases over the eastern Pacific are quite universal among 37 CMIP5 coupled models, and the ongoing CMIP6 project will provide a valuable opportunity to examine whether the bias can be reduced by increasing model resolution.

Song, Fengfei↗