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Spiridon Kasapis

Publications and source records attributed to Spiridon Kasapis.

16 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Machine Learning Ready Dataset of Acoustic Power Maps for Detection of Active Region Emergence

The development of an accurate forecast for solar eruptive activity has become increasingly important in order to prevent any potential impact on activities in space and the Earth's environment. It is therefore crucial to detect active regions before they appear on the solar surface and create early warning capabilities for upcoming Space Weather disturbances. In this work, 9TB of solar data (SDO/HMI dopplergrams, magnetograms and continuum intensity maps) involving the emergence of 61 NOAA solar active regions since 2010 were processed using the NASA HECC capabilities. An acoustic power maps time-series dataset was created (for four different frequency ranges and processed to take into account the solar sphere geometric effect ) which can be used for understanding the dynamics of the solar surface and train a variety of ML models. The calculated acoustic power maps carry precursor information associated with the decrease in continuum intensity on the solar surface, verifying older helioseismology research. Our results show that a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTMs) model, with a modest layer depth and the right hyperparameters tuned, when trained on this solar acoustic power maps dataset can predict without false negatives a drop in intensity (associated with the emergence of the active region), up to 18 hours in advance.

SMD↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Long-Short Term Memory Models to Predict Solar Active Regions Emergence

We train Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models that predict the formation of active regions (ARs), the main source of eruptive solar activity. Using the Doppler shift velocity, the continuum intensity and the magnetic field full-disk maps from SDO/HMI we have created time-series datasets of acoustic power and magnetic flux which are used to train Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models on predicting decreases in continuum intensity 12 hours in advance. Testing of the models' performance was done on data from 5 ARs, unseen from the model during training. The model predicted the emergence of AR11726, AR13165 and AR13179, 10, 29 and 5 hours in advance, and variations of this model achieved average RMSE values of 0.11 for both active and quiet parts of the solar disc, showing the ability of the model to capture acoustic power anomalies and predict continuum intensity variations. This work sets the foundations for the very first ML-aided prediction of solar ARs.

SMD↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring the Capabilities of a Machine Learning Algorithm to Detect Space Weather-Significant Emerging Active Regions

Active regions are a source of various phenomena responsible for Space Weather disturbances; therefore, developing a technology for early warning about upcoming magnetic activity is crucial to mitigate its impact. However, observational limitations and the high nonlinearity of processes associated with the accumulation of magnetic flux and its interaction with the surrounding plasma during the emergence through the convection zone make early activity detection a challenging problem. To address these challenges, we developed a physics-driven machine learning model that allows us to detect active regions (ARs) before they become visible on the solar surface by analyzing the power spectra of acoustic oscillations observed by the SDO/HMI instrument. This study is based on a time series of Doppler shift maps of 31x31-degree areas tracked with the Carrington rotation rate for four days before and after the emergence. The Doppler shift time series are processed into the oscillation power maps for four frequency ranges and accompanied by line-of-sight magnetograms and the continuum intensity maps from SDO/HMI. The resulting data are converted into a 1D time series representing the mean temporal variations of these quantities. The redacted time series are used as input to predict AR emergence using the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) method. The training of the LSTM model is based on 40 ARs, which includes an independent analysis for each sub region that exhibits AR emergence or remains quiet. The emergence of magnetic flux (defined as a decrease of the continuum intensity) was detected with the developed LSTM algorithm from 5 to 48 hours before the reported time by NOAA. The developed model is capable of pointing to the time and location of active region formation. In this presentation, we discuss reasons that impact how early in advance the model can identify the upcoming activity and the possibility of improving the current predictive skills and steps to transition to the operational forecast.

Heliophysics↗