Engineering topics

Sridhar, Banavar

Publications and source records attributed to Sridhar, Banavar.

At least 73 records · Page 4

NASA NTRS2010

Concepts and Challenges for Environmentally Friendly En Route Operations

Presented research on environmentally friendly en route traffic flow concepts incorporating models developed by basic climate research Developed an optimal contrail reduction trajectory concept. Integrated fuel flow, emissions and optimization models with FACET. Verified it against FAA emission models. Ability to conduct system level analysis of Traffic Flow Management concepts with minimal environmental impact.

Sridhar, Banavar↗

NASA NTRS2010

Fuel Efficient Strategies for Reducing Contrail Formations in United States Air Space

This paper describes a class of strategies for reducing persistent contrail formation in the United States airspace. The primary objective is to minimize potential contrail formation regions by altering the aircraft's cruising altitude in a fuel-efficient way. The results show that the contrail formations can be reduced significantly without extra fuel consumption and without adversely affecting congestion in the airspace. The contrail formations can be further reduced by using extra fuel. For the day tested, the maximal reduction strategy has a 53% contrail reduction rate. The most fuel-efficient strategy has an 8% reduction rate with 2.86% less fuel-burnt compared to the maximal reduction strategy. Using a cost function which penalizes extra fuel consumed while maximizing the amount of contrail reduction provides a flexible way to trade off between contrail reduction and fuel consumption. It can achieve a 35% contrail reduction rate with only 0.23% extra fuel consumption. The proposed fuel-efficient contrail reduction strategy provides a solution to reduce aviation-induced environmental impact on a daily basis.

Sridhar, Banavar↗

NASA NTRS2010

Convective Weather Forecast Accuracy Analysis at Center and Sector Levels

This paper presents a detailed convective forecast accuracy analysis at center and sector levels. The study is aimed to provide more meaningful forecast verification measures to aviation community, as well as to obtain useful information leading to the improvements in the weather translation capacity models. In general, the vast majority of forecast verification efforts over past decades have been on the calculation of traditional standard verification measure scores over forecast and observation data analyses onto grids. These verification measures based on the binary classification have been applied in quality assurance of weather forecast products at the national level for many years. Our research focuses on the forecast at the center and sector levels. We calculate the standard forecast verification measure scores for en-route air traffic centers and sectors first, followed by conducting the forecast validation analysis and related verification measures for weather intensities and locations at centers and sectors levels. An approach to improve the prediction of sector weather coverage by multiple sector forecasts is then developed. The weather severe intensity assessment was carried out by using the correlations between forecast and actual weather observation airspace coverage. The weather forecast accuracy on horizontal location was assessed by examining the forecast errors. The improvement in prediction of weather coverage was determined by the correlation between actual sector weather coverage and prediction. observed and forecasted Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) data collected from June to September in 2007. CWAM zero-minute forecast data with aircraft avoidance probability of 60% and 80% are used as the actual weather observation. All forecast measurements are based on 30-minute, 60- minute, 90-minute, and 120-minute forecasts with the same avoidance probabilities. The forecast accuracy analysis for times under one-hour showed that the errors in intensity and location for center forecast are relatively low. For example, 1-hour forecast intensity and horizontal location errors for ZDC center were about 0.12 and 0.13. However, the correlation between sector 1-hour forecast and actual weather coverage was weak, for sector ZDC32, about 32% of the total variation of observation weather intensity was unexplained by forecast; the sector horizontal location error was about 0.10. The paper also introduces an approach to estimate the sector three-dimensional actual weather coverage by using multiple sector forecasts, which turned out to produce better predictions. Using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model for this approach, the correlations between actual observation and the multiple sector forecast model prediction improved by several percents at 95% confidence level in comparison with single sector forecast.

Wang, Yao↗

NASA NTRS2010

Simulation and Optimization Methods for Assessing the Impact of Aviation Operations on the Environment

There is increased awareness of anthropogenic factors affecting climate change and urgency to slow the negative impact. Greenhouse gases, oxides of Nitrogen and contrails resulting from aviation affect the climate in different and uncertain ways. This paper develops a flexible simulation and optimization software architecture to study the trade-offs involved in reducing emissions. The software environment is used to conduct analysis of two approaches for avoiding contrails using the concepts of contrail frequency index and optimal avoidance trajectories.

Sridhar, Banavar↗

NASA NTRS2010

Concepts and Challenges for Environmentally Friendly En Route Operations

A flight trajectory optimization algorithm with fuel and contrails models, which develops alternative flight paths, provides policy makers the necessary data to make tradeoffs between persistent contrails mitigation and aircraft fuel consumption. This study develops an algorithm that calculates wind-optimal trajectories for cruising aircraft while avoiding the regions of airspace prone to persistent contrails formation. The optimal trajectory is derived using Singular Perturbation Method. The regions of airspace favorable to persistent contrails formation are modeled as high-risk areas that aircraft should avoid and are adjustable. The tradeoffs between persistent contrails formation and additional travel time are investigated for wind-optimal trajectories and various contrails-avoidance trajectories at 10 different cruising altitudes for flights departing from Chicago and San Diego to New York. The additional travel times required for avoiding 100% persistent contrails formation at various flight altitudes ranged from approximately 0% to 4.3% for flights from Chicago to New York. For flights between San Diego and New York, additional traveling times vary between 1.3% and 5% depending on the cruise altitude and the percentage of contrail avoidance. Talk will present the results of aircraft fuel consumptions that are proportional to the travel time for cruising aircraft.

Sridhar, Banavar↗

NASA NTRS2010

Traffic Flow Management Using Aggregate Flow Models and the Development of Disaggregation Methods

A linear time-varying aggregate traffic flow model can be used to develop Traffic Flow Management (tfm) strategies based on optimization algorithms. However, there are no methods available in the literature to translate these aggregate solutions into actions involving individual aircraft. This paper describes and implements a computationally efficient disaggregation algorithm, which converts an aggregate (flow-based) solution to a flight-specific control action. Numerical results generated by the optimization method and the disaggregation algorithm are presented and illustrated by applying them to generate TFM schedules for a typical day in the U.S. National Airspace System. The results show that the disaggregation algorithm generates control actions for individual flights while keeping the air traffic behavior very close to the optimal solution.

Sun, Dengfeng↗

NASA NTRS2010

Interaction Between Strategic and Local Traffic Flow Controls

The loosely coordinated sets of traffic flow management initiatives that are operationally implemented at the national- and local-levels have the potential to under, over, and inconsistently control flights. This study is designed to explore these interactions through fast-time simulations with an emphasis on identifying inequitable situations in which flights receive multiple uncoordinated delays. Two operationally derived scenarios were considered in which flights arriving into the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport were first controlled at the national-level, either with a Ground Delay Program or a playbook reroute. These flights were subsequently controlled at the local level. The Traffic Management Advisor assigned them arrival scheduling delays. For the Ground Delay Program scenarios, between 51% and 53% of all arrivals experience both pre-departure delays from the Ground Delay Program and arrival scheduling delays from the Traffic Management Advisor. Of the subset of flights that received multiple delays, between 5.7% and 6.4% of the internal departures were first assigned a pre-departure delay by the Ground Delay Program, followed by a second pre-departure delay as a result of the arrival scheduling. For the playbook reroute scenario, Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport arrivals were first assigned pre-departure reroutes based on the MW_2_DALLAS playbook plan, and were subsequently assigned arrival scheduling delays by the Traffic Management Advisor. Since the airport was operating well below capacity when the playbook reroute was in effect, only 7% of the arrivals were observed to receive both rerouting and arrival scheduling delays. Findings from these initial experiments confirm field observations that Ground Delay Programs operated in conjunction with arrival scheduling can result in inequitable situations in which flights receive multiple uncoordinated delays.

Grabbe, Son↗

NASA NTRS2010

Optimizing Flight Departure Delay and Route Selection Under En Route Convective Weather

This paper presents a linear Integer Programming model for managing air traffic flow in the United States. The decision variables in the model are departure delays and predeparture reroutes of aircraft whose trajectories are predicted to cross weather-impacted regions of the National Airspace System. The model assigns delays to a set of flights while ensuring their trajectories are free of any conflicts with weather. In a deterministic setting, there is no airborne holding due to unexpected weather incursion in a flight s path. The model is applied to solve a large-scale traffic flow management problem with realistic weather data and flight schedules. Experimental results indicate that allowing rerouting can reduce departure delays by nearly 57%, but it is associated with an increase in total airborne time due to longer routes flown by aircraft. The computation times to solve this problem were significantly lower than those reported in the earlier studies.

Mukherjee, Avijit↗

NASA NTRS2010

Air traffic management evaluation tool

Method and system for evaluating and implementing air traffic management tools and approaches for managing and avoiding an air traffic incident before the incident occurs. The invention provides flight plan routing and direct routing or wind optimal routing, using great circle navigation and spherical Earth geometry. The invention provides for aircraft dynamics effects, such as wind effects at each altitude, altitude changes, airspeed changes and aircraft turns to provide predictions of aircraft trajectory (and, optionally, aircraft fuel use). A second system provides several aviation applications using the first system. These applications include conflict detection and resolution, miles-in trail or minutes-in-trail aircraft separation, flight arrival management, flight re-routing, weather prediction and analysis and interpolation of weather variables based upon sparse measurements.

Sridhar, Banavar↗

NASA NTRS2009

Integrated Traffic Flow Management Decision Making

A generalized approach is proposed to support integrated traffic flow management decision making studies at both the U.S. national and regional levels. It can consider tradeoffs between alternative optimization and heuristic based models, strategic versus tactical flight controls, and system versus fleet preferences. Preliminary testing was accomplished by implementing thirteen unique traffic flow management models, which included all of the key components of the system and conducting 85, six-hour fast-time simulation experiments. These experiments considered variations in the strategic planning look-ahead times, the replanning intervals, and the types of traffic flow management control strategies. Initial testing indicates that longer strategic planning look-ahead times and re-planning intervals result in steadily decreasing levels of sector congestion for a fixed delay level. This applies when accurate estimates of the air traffic demand, airport capacities and airspace capacities are available. In general, the distribution of the delays amongst the users was found to be most equitable when scheduling flights using a heuristic scheduling algorithm, such as ration-by-distance. On the other hand, equity was the worst when using scheduling algorithms that took into account the number of seats aboard each flight. Though the scheduling algorithms were effective at alleviating sector congestion, the tactical rerouting algorithm was the primary control for avoiding en route weather hazards. Finally, the modeled levels of sector congestion, the number of weather incursions, and the total system delays, were found to be in fair agreement with the values that were operationally observed on both good and bad weather days.

Grabbe, Shon R.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Software for Simulating Air Traffic

Future Air Traffic Management Concepts Evaluation Tool (FACET) is a system of software for performing computational simulations for evaluating advanced concepts of advanced air-traffic management. FACET includes a program that generates a graphical user interface plus programs and databases that implement computational models of weather, airspace, airports, navigation aids, aircraft performance, and aircraft trajectories. Examples of concepts studied by use of FACET include aircraft self-separation for free flight; prediction of air-traffic-controller workload; decision support for direct routing; integration of spacecraft-launch operations into the U.S. national airspace system; and traffic- flow-management using rerouting, metering, and ground delays. Aircraft can be modeled as flying along either flight-plan routes or great-circle routes as they climb, cruise, and descend according to their individual performance models. The FACET software is modular and is written in the Java and C programming languages. The architecture of FACET strikes a balance between flexibility and fidelity; as a consequence, FACET can be used to model systemwide airspace operations over the contiguous U.S., involving as many as 10,000 aircraft, all on a single desktop or laptop computer running any of a variety of operating systems. Two notable applications of FACET include: (1) reroute conformance monitoring algorithms that have been implemented in one of the Federal Aviation Administration s nationally deployed, real-time, operational systems; and (2) the licensing and integration of FACET with the commercially available Flight Explorer, which is an Internet- based, real-time flight-tracking system.

Sridhar, Banavar↗

NASA NTRS2006

Central East Pacific Flight Routing

With the introduction of the Federal Aviation Administration s Advanced Technology and Oceanic Procedures system at the Oakland Oceanic Center, a level of automation now exists in the oceanic environment to potentially begin accommodating increased user preferred routing requests. This paper presents the results of an initial feasibility assessment which examines the potential benefits of transitioning from the fixed Central East Pacific routes to user preferred routes. As a surrogate for the actual user-provided routing requests, a minimum-travel-time, wind-optimal dynamic programming algorithm was developed and utilized in this paper. After first describing the characteristics (e.g., origin airport, destination airport, vertical distribution and temporal distribution) of the westbound flights utilizing the Central East Pacific routes on Dec. 14-16 and 19-20, the results of both a flight-plan-based simulation and a wind-optimal-based simulation are presented. Whereas the lateral and longitudinal distribution of the aircraft trajectories in these two simulations varied dramatically, the number of simulated first-loss-of-separation events remained relatively constant. One area of concern that was uncovered in this initial analysis was a potential workload issue associated with the redistribution of traffic in the oceanic sectors due to thc prevailing wind patterns.

Grabbe, Shon↗

NASA NTRS2006

Relationship between Weather, Traffic and Delay Based on Empirical Methods

The steady rise in demand for air transportation over the years has put much emphasis on the need for sophisticated air traffic flow management (TFM) within the National Airspace System (NAS). The NAS refers to hardware, software and people, including runways, radars, networks, FAA, airlines, etc., involved in air traffic management (ATM) in the US. One of the metrics that has been used to assess the performance of NAS is the actual delays provided through FAA's Air Traffic Operations Network (OPSNET). The OPSNET delay data includes those reportable delays, i.e. delays of 15 minutes or more experienced by Instrument Flight Rule (IFR) flights, submitted by the FAA facilities. These OPSNET delays are caused by the application of TFM initiatives in response to, for instance, weather conditions, increased traffic volume, equipment outages, airline operations, and runway conditions. TFM initiatives such as, ground stops, ground delay programs, rerouting, airborne holding, and miles-in-trail restrictions, are actions which are needed to control the air traffic demand to mitigate the demand-capacity imbalance due to the reduction in capacity. Consequently, TFM initiatives result in NAS delays. Of all the causes, weather has been identified as the most important causal factor for NAS delays. Therefore, in order to accurately assess the NAS performance, it has become necessary to create a baseline for NAS performance and establish a model which characterizes the relation between weather and NAS delays.

Sridhar, Banavar↗

NASA NTRS2006

Impact of Probabilistic Weather on Flight Routing Decisions

Flight delays in the United States have been found to increase year after year, along with the increase in air traffic. During the four-month period from May through August of 2005, weather related delays accounted for roughly 70% of all reported delays, The current weather prediction in tactical (within 2 hours) timeframe is at manageable levels, however, the state of forecasting weather for strategic (2-6 hours) timeframe is still not dependable for long-term planning. In the absence of reliable severe weather forecasts, the decision-making for flights longer than two hours is challenging. This paper deals with an approach of using probabilistic weather prediction for Traffic Flow Management use, and a general method using this prediction for estimating expected values of flight length and delays in the National Airspace System (NAS). The current state-of-the-art convective weather forecasting is employed to aid the decision makers in arriving at decisions for traffic flow and flight planing. The six-agency effort working on the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NGATS) have considered weather-assimilated decision-making as one of the principal foci out of a list of eight. The weather Integrated Product Team has considered integrated weather information and improved aviation weather forecasts as two of the main efforts (Ref. 1, 2). Recently, research has focused on the concept of operations for strategic traffic flow management (Ref. 3) and how weather data can be integrated for improved decision-making for efficient traffic management initiatives (Ref. 4, 5). An overview of the weather data needs and benefits of various participants in the air traffic system along with available products can be found in Ref. 6. Previous work related to use of weather data in identifying and categorizing pilot intrusions into severe weather regions (Ref. 7, 8) has demonstrated a need for better forecasting in the strategic planning timeframes and moving towards a probabilistic description of weather (Ref. 9). This paper focuses on. specified probability in a local region for flight intrusion/deviation decision-making. The process uses a probabilistic weather description, implements that in a air traffic assessment system to study trajectories of aircraft crossing a cut-off probability contour. This value would be useful for meteorologists in creating optimum distribution profiles for severe weather, Once available, the expected values of flight path and aggregate delays are calculated for efficient operations. The current research, however, does not deal with the issue of multiple cell encounters, as well as echo tops, and will be a topic of future work.

Sheth, Kapil↗

NASA NTRS2006

Estimation of Reduction in Airspace Capacity Due to Convective Weather

Severe convective weather routinely disrupts normal flow of air traffic in the United States' National Airspace System (NAS). Over the last decade, severe weather has been the most significant cause, accounting for over 70% of air traffic delays in the NAS. Flights incur modification in their nominal routes due to the presence of severe weather, and hence, suffer increased delays. These delays contribute to increased burden on airlines due to extra fuel costs and missed schedules for connecting flights. In this paper, the reduction in air space capacity and the associated air traffic delays due to severe convective weather will be investigated.

Sheth, Kapil↗

NASA NTRS2004

National Airspace System Delay Estimation Using Weather Weighted Traffic Counts

Assessment of National Airspace System performance, which is usually measured in terms of delays resulting from the application of traffic flow management initiatives in response to weather conditions, volume, equipment outages and runway conditions, is needed both for guiding flow control decisions during the day of operations and for post operations analysis. Comparison of the actual delay, resulting from the traffic flow management initiatives, with the expected delay, based on traffic demand and other conditions, provides the assessment of the National Airspace System performance. This paper provides a method for estimating delay using the expected traffic demand and weather. In order to identify the cause of delays, 517 days of National Airspace System delay data reported by the Federal Aviation Administration s Operations Network were analyzed. This analysis shows that weather is the most important causal factor for delays followed by equipment and runway delays. Guided by these results, the concept of weather weighted traffic counts as a measure of system delay is described. Examples are given to show the variation of these counts as a function of time of the day. The various datasets, consisting of aircraft position data, enroute severe weather data, surface wind speed and visibility data, reported delay data and number of aircraft handled by the Centers data, and their sources are described. The procedure for selecting reference days on which traffic was minimally impacted by weather is described. Different traffic demand on each reference day of the week, determined by analysis of 42 days of traffic and delay data, was used as the expected traffic demand for each day of the week. Next, the method for computing the weather weighted traffic counts using the expected traffic demand, derived from reference days, and the expanded regions around severe weather cells is discussed. It is shown via a numerical example that this approach improves the dynamic range of the weather weighted traffic counts considerably. Time histories of these new weather weighted traffic counts are used for synthesizing two statistical features, six histogram features and six time domain features. In addition to these enroute weather features, two surface weather features of number of major airports in the United States with high mean winds and low mean visibility are also described. A least squares procedure for establishing a functional relation between the features, using combinations of these features, and system delays is explored using 36 days of data. Best correlations between the estimated delays using the functional relation and the actual delays provided by the Operations Network are obtained with two different combinations of features: 1) six time domain features of weather weighted traffic counts plus two surface weather features, and 2) six histogram features and mean of weather weighted traffic counts along with the two surface weather features. Correlation coefficient values of 0.73 and 0.83 were found in these two instances.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Analysis of ETMS Data Quality for Traffic Flow Management Decisions

The data needed for air traffic flow management decision support tools is provided by the Enhanced Traffic Management System (ETMS). This includes both the tools that are in current use and the ones being developed for future deployment. Since the quality of decision support provided by all these tools will be influenced by the quality of the input ETMS data, an assessment of ETMS data quality is needed. Motivated by this desire, ETMS data quality is examined in this paper in terms of the unavailability of flight plans, deviation from the filed flight plans, departure delays, altitude errors and track data drops. Although many of these data quality issues are not new, little is known about their extent. A goal of this paper is to document the magnitude of data quality issues supported by numerical analysis of ETMS data. Guided by this goal, ETMS data for a 24-hour period were processed to determine the number of aircraft with missing flight plan messages at any given instant of time. Results are presented for aircraft above 18,000 feet altitude and also at all altitudes. Since deviation from filed flight plan is also a major cause of trajectory-modeling errors, statistics of deviations are presented. Errors in proposed departure times and ETMS-generated vertical profiles are also shown. A method for conditioning the vertical profiles for improving demand prediction accuracy is described. Graphs of actual sector counts obtained using these vertical profiles are compared with those obtained using the Host data for sectors in the Fort Worth Center to demonstrate the benefit of preprocessing. Finally, results are presented to quantify the extent of data drops. A method for propagating track positions during ETMS data drops is also described.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Modeling and Evaluation of Miles-in-Trail Restrictions in the National Air Space

Miles-in-trail restrictions impact flights in the national air space on a daily basis and these restrictions routinely propagate between adjacent Air Route Traffic Control Centers. Since overly restrictive or ineffective miles-in-trail restrictions can reduce the overall efficiency of the national air space, decision support capabilities that model miles-in-trail restrictions should prove to be very beneficial. This paper presents both an analytical formulation and a linear programming approach for modeling the effects of miles-in-trail restrictions. A methodology for monitoring the conformance of an existing miles-in-trail restriction is also presented. These capabilities have been implemented in the Future ATM Concepts Evaluation Tool for testing purposes. To allow alternative restrictions to be evaluated in post-operations, a new mode of operation, which is referred to as the hybrid-playback mode, has been implemented in the simulation environment. To demonstrate the capabilities of these new algorithms, the miles-in-trail restrictions, which were in effect on June 27, 2002 in the New York Terminal Radar Approach Control, are examined. Results from the miles-in-trail conformance monitoring functionality are presented for the ELIOT, PARKE and WHITE departure fixes. In addition, the miles-in-trail algorithms are used to assess the impact of alternative restrictions at the PARKE departure fix.

Grabbe, Shon↗