Computational Efficient Estimation of the Extreme Event Probability of the Mass Loss of Antarctic Glaciers
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Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Stadler, Georg.
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Obtaining lightweight and accurate approximations of discretized objective functional Hessians in inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) is essential to make both deterministic and Bayesian statistical large-scale inverse problems computationally tractable. The cubic computational complexity of dense linear algebraic tasks, such as Cholesky factorization, that provide a means to sample Gaussian distributions and determine solutions of Newton linear systems is a computational bottleneck at large-scale. These tasks can be reduced to log-linear complexity by utilizing hierarchical off-diagonal low-rank (HODLR) matrix approximations. In this work, we show that a class of Hessians that arise from inverse problems governed by PDEs are well approximated by the HODLR matrix format. In particular, we study inverse problems governed by PDEs that model the instantaneous viscous flow of ice sheets. In these problems, we seek a spatially distributed basal sliding parameter field such that the flow predicted by the ice sheet model is consistent with ice sheet surface velocity observations. Here, we demonstrate the use of HODLR Hessian approximation to efficiently sample the Laplace approximation of the posterior distribution with covariance further approximated by HODLR matrix compression. Computational studies are performed which illustrate ice sheet problem regimes for which the Gauss–Newton data-misfit Hessian is more efficiently approximated by the HODLR matrix format than the low-rank (LR) format. We then demonstrate that HODLR approximations can be favorable, when compared to global LR approximations, for large-scale problems by studying the data-misfit Hessian associated with inverse problems governed by the first-order Stokes flow model on the Humboldt glacier and Greenland ice sheet.
We present a robust optimization algorithm for the design of electromagnetic coils that generate vacuum magnetic fields with nested flux surfaces and precise quasi-symmetry. The method is based on a bilevel optimization problem, where the outer coil optimization is constrained by a set of inner least squares optimization problems whose solutions describe magnetic surfaces. The outer optimization objective targets coils that generate a field with nested magnetic surfaces and good quasi-symmetry. The inner optimization problems identify magnetic surfaces when they exist, and approximate surfaces in the presence of magnetic islands or chaos. We show that this formulation can be used to heal islands and chaos, thus producing coils that result in magnetic fields with precise quasi-symmetry. We show that the method can be initialized with coils from the traditional two-stage coil design process, as well as coils from a near-axis expansion optimization. We present a numerical example where island chains are healed and quasi-symmetry is optimized up to surfaces with aspect ratio 6. Another numerical example illustrates that the aspect ratio of nested flux surfaces with optimized quasi-symmetry can be decreased from 6 to approximately 4. In conclusion, the last example shows that our approach is robust and a cold-start using coils from a near-axis expansion optimization.
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Magnetic fields with quasi-symmetry are known to provide good confinement of charged particles and plasmas, but the extent to which quasi-symmetry can be achieved in practice has remained an open question. Recent work [M. Landreman and E. Paul, Phys. Rev. Lett. 128, 035001, 2022] reports the discovery of toroidal magnetic fields that are quasi-symmetric to orders-of-magnitude higher precision than previously known fields. We show that these fields can be accurately produced using electromagnetic coils of only moderate engineering complexity, that is, coils that have low curvature and that are sufficiently separated from each other. Our results demonstrate that these new quasi-symmetric fields are relevant for applications requiring the confinement of energetic charged particles for long time scales, such as nuclear fusion. The coils’ length plays an important role for how well the quasi-symmetric fields can be approximated. For the longest coil set considered and a mean field strength of 1 T, the departure from quasi-symmetry is of the order of Earth’s magnetic field. Additionally, we find that magnetic surfaces extend far outside the plasma boundary used by Landreman and Paul, providing confinement far from the core. Simulations confirm that the magnetic fields generated by the new coils confine particles with high kinetic energy substantially longer than previously known coil configurations. In particular, when scaled to a reactor, the best found configuration loses only 0.04% of energetic particles born at midradius when following guiding center trajectories for 200 ms.
Here we present a new coil design paradigm for magnetic confinement in stellarators. Our approach directly optimizes coil shapes and coil currents to produce a vacuum quasi-symmetric magnetic field with a target rotational transform on the magnetic axis. This approach differs from the traditional two-stage approach in which first a magnetic configuration with desirable physics properties is found, and then coils to approximately realize this magnetic configuration are designed. The proposed single-stage approach allows us to find a compromise between confinement and engineering requirements, i.e., find easy-to-build coils with good confinement properties. Using forward and adjoint sensitivities, we derive derivatives of the physical quantities in the objective, which is constrained by a nonlinear periodic differential equation. In two numerical examples, we compare different gradient-based descent algorithms and find that incorporating approximate second-order derivative information through a quasi-Newton method is crucial for convergence. We also explore the optimization landscape in the neighborhood of a minimizer and find many directions in which the objective is mostly flat, indicating ample freedom to find simple and thus easy-to-build coils.
Changes in Pacific Plate motion combined near equally with hotspot drift to generate the prominent bend in the Hawaiian-Emperor seamount chain some 50 million years ago, according to kinematic plate reconstruction and global dynamic models. A drastic change in plate tectonics and mantle convection occurred around 50 Ma as exemplified by the prominent Hawaiian-Emperor Bend. Both an abrupt Pacific Plate motion change and a change in mantle plume dynamics have been proposed to account for the Hawaiian-Emperor Bend, but debates surround the relative contribution of the two mechanisms. Here we build kinematic plate reconstructions and high-resolution global dynamic models to quantify the amount of Pacific Plate motion change. We find Izanagi Plate subduction, followed by demise of the Izanagi-Pacific Ridge and Izu-Bonin-Mariana subduction initiation alone, is incapable of causing a sudden change in plate motion, challenging the conventional hypothesis on the mechanisms of Pacific Plate motion change. Instead, Palaeocene slab pull from Kronotsky intraoceanic subduction in the northern Pacific exerts a northward pull on the Pacific Plate, while its Eocene demise leads to a sudden 30-35 degrees change in plate motion, accounting for about half of the Hawaiian-Emperor Bend. We suggest the Pacific Plate motion change and hotspot drift due to plume dynamics could have contributed nearly equally to the formation of the Hawaiian-Emperor Bend. Such a scenario is consistent with available constraints from global plate circuits, palaeomagnetic data and geodynamic models.
Abstract not provided.