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Staid, Andrea

Publications and source records attributed to Staid, Andrea.

At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Integrative data-driven approaches for characterization & prediction of aerosol-cloud processes

Focal Area: Advanced methods to glean insights from complex data (Focal Area 3). Science Challenge: Fusing and interpreting the vast amount of data from disjoint sources for the purpose of elevating our understanding of aerosol-cloud interaction presents an enormous challenge and opportunity and is necessary to improve uncertainty quantification and predictions, especially for extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

epi_inference v. 1.0

SAND2021-0503 O The epi_inference software supports the prediction of disease transmission parameters from data. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Hart, William↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dakota-NAERM Integration

This report presents the results of a collaborative effort under the Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) thrust area of the North American Energy Resilience Model (NAERM) program. The goal of the effort described in this report was to integrate the Dakota software with the NAERM software framework to demonstrate sensitivity analysis of a co-simulation for NAERM.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Generator Failures under Extreme Temperature Scenarios in Power Systems

This report summarizes work done under the Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) thrust area of the North American Energy Resilience Model (NAERM) Program. The specific task of interest described in this report is focused on sensitivity analysis of scenarios involving failures of both wind turbines and thermal generators under extreme cold-weather temperature conditions as would be observed in a Polar Vortex event.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hurricane-induced power outage risk under climate change is primarily driven by the uncertainty in projections of future hurricane frequency

Nine in ten major outages in the US have been caused by hurricanes. Long-term outage risk is a function of climate change-triggered shifts in hurricane frequency and intensity; yet projections of both remain highly uncertain. However, outage risk models do not account for the epistemic uncertainties in physics-based hurricane projections under climate change, largely due to the extreme computational complexity. Instead they use simple probabilistic assumptions to model such uncertainties. Here, we propose a transparent and efficient framework to, for the first time, bridge the physics-based hurricane projections and intricate outage risk models. We find that uncertainty in projections of the frequency of weaker storms explains over 95% of the uncertainty in outage projections; thus, reducing this uncertainty will greatly improve outage risk management. We also show that the expected annual fraction of affected customers exhibits large variances, warranting the adoption of robust resilience investment strategies and climate-informed regulatory frameworks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of wind power scenario creation methods for stochastic power systems operations

Probabilistic scenarios of renewable energy production, such as wind, have been gaining popularity for use in stochastic variants of power systems operations scheduling problems, allowing for optimal decision-making under uncertainty. The quality of the scenarios has a direct impact on the value of the resulting decisions, but until now, methods for creating scenarios have not been compared under realistic operational conditions. Here, we compare the quality of scenario sets created using three different methods, based on a simulated re-enactment of stochastic day-ahead unit commitment and subsequent dispatch for a realistic test system. We create scenarios using a dataset of forecasted and actual wind power values, scaled to evaluate the effects of increasing wind penetration levels. We show that the choice of scenario set can significantly impact system operating cost, renewable energy use, and the ability of the system to meet demand. This result has implications for the ability of system operators to efficiently integrate renewable production into their day-ahead planning, highlighting the need for the use of performance-based assessments for scenario evaluation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Hybridizing Classifiers and Collection Systems to Maximize Intelligence and Minimize Uncertainty in National Security Data Analytics Applications

There are numerous applications that combine data collected from sensors with machine-learning based classification models to predict the type of event or objects observed. Both the collection of the data itself and the classification models can be tuned for optimal performance, but we hypothesize that additional gains can be realized by jointly assessing both factors together. Through this research, we used a seismic event dataset and two neural network classification models that issued probabilistic predictions on each event to determine whether it was an earthquake or a quarry blast. Real world applications will have constraints on data collection, perhaps in terms of a budget for the number of sensors or on where, when, or how data can be collected. We mimicked such constraints by creating subnetworks of sensors with both size and locational constraints. We compare different methods of determining the set of sensors in each subnetwork in terms of their predictive accuracy and the number of events that they observe overall. Additionally, we take the classifiers into account, treating them both as black-box models and testing out various ways of combining predictions among models and among the set of sensors that observe any given event. We find that comparable overall performance can be seen with less than half the number of sensors in the full network. Additionally, a voting scheme that uses the average confidence across the sensors for a given event shows improved predictive accuracy across nearly all subnetworks. Lastly, locational constraints matter, but sometimes in unintuitive ways, as better-performing sensors may be chosen instead of the ones excluded based on location. This being a short-term research effort, we offer a lengthy discussion on interesting next-steps and ties to other ongoing research efforts that we did not have time to pursue. These include a detailed analysis of the subnetwork performance broken down by event type, specific location, and model confidence. This project also included a Campus Executive research partnership with Texas A&M University. Through this, we worked with a professor and student to study information gain for UAV routing. This was an alternative way of looking at the similar problem space that includes sensor operation for data collection and the resulting benefit to be gained from it. This work is described in an Appendix.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

The IEEE Reliability Test System: A Proposed 2019 Update

The evolving nature of electricity production, transmission and consumption necessitates an update to the IEEE's Reliability Test System, which was last modernized in 1996. The update introduced here introduces a generation mix more representative of modern power systems, with the removal of several nuclear and oil generating units and the addition of natural gas, wind, solar photovoltaics, concentrating solar power, and energy storage. The update includes assigning the test system a geographic location in the southwestern United States to enable the integration of spatio-temporally consistent wind, solar, and load data with forecasts. Further updates include common RTS transmission modifications in published literature, definitions for reserve product requirements and market simulation descriptions to enable benchmarking of multi-period power system scheduling problems. The final section reflects example results from a production cost modeling simulation on the updated RTS system data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗