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Stephens, Graeme

Publications and source records attributed to Stephens, Graeme.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Multifaceted aerosol effects on precipitation

Aerosols have been proposed to influence precipitation rates and spatial patterns from scales of individual clouds to the globe. However, large uncertainty remains regarding the underlying mechanisms and importance of multiple effects across spatial and temporal scales. Here, in this study, we review the evidence and scientific consensus behind these effects, categorized into radiative effects via modification of radiative fluxes and the energy balance, and microphysical effects via modification of cloud droplets and ice crystals. Broad consensus and strong theoretical evidence exist that aerosol radiative effects (aerosol–radiation interactions and aerosol–cloud interactions) act as drivers of precipitation changes because global mean precipitation is constrained by energetics and surface evaporation. Likewise, aerosol radiative effects cause well-documented shifts of large-scale precipitation patterns, such as the intertropical convergence zone. The extent of aerosol effects on precipitation at smaller scales is less clear. Although there is broad consensus and strong evidence that aerosol perturbations microphysically increase cloud droplet numbers and decrease droplet sizes, thereby slowing precipitation droplet formation, the overall aerosol effect on precipitation across scales remains highly uncertain. Global cloud-resolving models provide opportunities to investigate mechanisms that are currently not well represented in global climate models and to robustly connect local effects with larger scales. This will increase our confidence in predicted impacts of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Time Resolved Reflectivity Measurements of Convective Clouds

National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Investigations of Convective Updrafts (INCUS) mission aims to document convective mass flux through changes in the radar reflectivity (ΔZ) in convective cores captured by a constellation of three Ka-band radars sampling the same convective cells over intervals of 30, 90, and 120 s. Here, high spatiotemporal resolution observations of convective cores from surface-based radars that use agile sampling techniques are used to evaluate aspects of the INCUS measurement approach using real observations. Analysis of several convective cells confirms that large coherent ΔZ structure with measurable signal (>5 dB) can occur in less than 30 s and are correlated with underlying convective motions. The analysis indicates that the INCUS mission radar footprint and along track sampling are adequate to capture most of the desirable ΔZ signals. This unique demonstration of reflectivity time-lapse provides the framework for estimating convective mass flux independent from Doppler techniques with future radar observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The First 30 Years of GEWEX

The Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges (GEWEX) project was created more than 30 years ago within the framework of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). The aim of this initiative was to address major gaps in our understanding of Earth’s energy and water cycles given a lack of information about the basic fluxes and associated reservoirs of these cycles. GEWEX sought to acquire and set standards for climatological data on variables essential for quantifying water and energy fluxes and for closing budgets at the regional and global scales. In so doing, GEWEX activities led to a greatly improved understanding of processes and our ability to predict them. Such understanding was viewed then, as it remains today, essential for advancing weather and climate prediction from global to regional scales. GEWEX has also demonstrated over time the importance of a wider engagement of different communities and the necessity of international collaboration for making progress on understanding and on the monitoring of the changes in the energy and water cycles under ever increasing human pressures. Here, this paper reflects on the first 30 years of evolution and progress that has occurred within GEWEX. This evolution is presented in terms of three main phases of activity. Progress toward the main goals of GEWEX is highlighted by calling out a few achievements from each phase. A vision of the path forward for the coming decade, including the goals of GEWEX for the future, are also described.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

Lidar-Polarimeter Retrieval OSSEs in Support of NASA's Aerosols and Clouds-Convection-Precipitation (ACCP) Study

The 2017 Decadal Survey (DS) highlighted Earth System Science themes, science and application questions, and several high priority objectives that have led to the inclusion of Aerosols (A) and Clouds-Convection-Precipitation (CCP) as Designated Observables (DOs). On June 1, 2018, several NASA centers (GSFC, LaRC, JPL, MSFC, GRC and ARC) submitted a joint Study Plan to the NASA Earth Science Division for the Aerosol (A) and Cloud, Convection, and Precipitation (CCP) Pre-formulation Study (A-CCP). The DS and the A-CCP team recognized the science merit in combining the A and CCP DOs for both enhancing the ability to address a number of science objectives and also to provide an expanded capability to address additional objectives beyond those addressed by individual DOs.A critical element of the A-CCP observing strategy is to make extensive use of new passive and active sensors as well as of the so-called Program-of-Record (PoR), complemented by a fully integrated sub-orbital component. Central to this observing system design is the adoption of a Value Framework in which quantitative assessment of the science benefits of space-and air-borne assets is a key element. Given pre-defined A-CCP science objectives and geophysical variables with desired accuracies, A-CCP relies on a spectrum of Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) aimed at addressing pixel level retrieval uncertainties and sampling trade-offs. In this talk we will discuss a subset of Retrieval OSSEs being considered for A-CCP, namely, synergistic lidar-polarimeter retrievals of particular relevance for the A-CCP aerosol science objectives. Starting with aerosol states from the GEOS-5 Nature Run (G5NR) sampled along specific satellite orbits, we simulate polarized radiances at the desired polarimeter wavelengths with the Vector Linearized Direct Ordinate Radiative Transfer (VLIDORT) model, alongside the lidar signal for the relevant lidars with realistic error characterization. Next, inversions are performed with the Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties (GRASP) system and the accuracy of the retrieved geophysical variables are assessed. In this presentation we will highlight results for key architectures being considered for A-CCP.

da Silva, Arlindo↗
DOE OSTI2019

Conditional Generative Adversarial Networks (cGANs) for Near Real-Time Precipitation Estimation from Multispectral GOES-16 Satellite Imageries—PERSIANN-cGAN

In this paper, we present a state-of-the-art precipitation estimation framework which leverages advances in satellite remote sensing as well as Deep Learning (DL). The framework takes advantage of the improvements in spatial, spectral and temporal resolutions of the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) onboard the GOES-16 platform along with elevation information to improve the precipitation estimates. The procedure begins by first deriving a Rain/No Rain (R/NR) binary mask through classification of the pixels and then applying regression to estimate the amount of rainfall for rainy pixels. A Fully Convolutional Network is used as a regressor to predict precipitation estimates. The network is trained using the non-saturating conditional Generative Adversarial Network (cGAN) and Mean Squared Error (MSE) loss terms to generate results that better learn the complex distribution of precipitation in the observed data. Common verification metrics such as Probability Of Detection (POD), False Alarm Ratio (FAR), Critical Success Index (CSI), Bias, Correlation and MSE are used to evaluate the accuracy of both R/NR classification and real-valued precipitation estimates. Statistics and visualizations of the evaluation measures show improvements in the precipitation retrieval accuracy in the proposed framework compared to the baseline models trained using conventional MSE loss terms. This framework is proposed as an augmentation for PERSIANN-CCS (Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Network- Cloud Classification System) algorithm for estimating global precipitation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2019

An Overview of the Aerosol and Clouds-Convection-Precipitation Study (A-CCP) and its Relationship to the Geostationary AC-VC

The 2017 Decadal Survey (DS) highlighted Earth System Science themes, science and application questions, and several high priority objectives that have led to the inclusion of Aerosols (A) and Clouds-Convection-Precipitation (CCP) as Designated Observables (DOs) The aerosol-related science questions outlined by the DS focus on two major themes: 1) Climate Variability and Change and 2) Weather and Air Quality. The Aerosol mission observables targeted to address these major objectives may potentially contribute to three additional themes: 3) Marine and Terrestrial Ecosystems, 4) Global Hydrological Cycle, and 5) Earth Surface and Interior; this study will examine these linkages.In response to NASA's Designated Observables Guidance for Multi-Center Study Plans released on June 1, 2018, GSFC, LaRC, JPL, MSFC, GRC and ARC submitted Study Plan to the NASA Earth Science Division for the Aerosol (A) and Cloud, Convection, and Precipitation (CCP) Pre-formulation Study (A-CCP). The DS recognized the science merit in combining the A and CCP DOs for both enhancing the ability to address a number of Most Important (MI) objectives defined by the disciplinary panels and also to provide an expanded capability to address additional objectives beyond those addressed by individual DOs. The DS also identified Integrating Themes that can also be addressed through combinations of observables including potential combinations of DOs and the PoR. The combined A+CCP portion of this study will demonstrate how the combination of A and CCP observables will enhance the objectives of A and CCP individually, while providing the ability to expand the DS objectives addressed, and will closely connect to the A and CCP studies being performed in parallel. A critical element of the A-CCP observing strategy is to make extensive use of the so-called Program-of-Record (PoR). In this regard, the Geostationary Atmospheric Composition Virtual Constellation consisting of the GEMS, TEMPO and SENTINEL-4 and other relevant geostationary assets will provide a critical foundation for A-CCP. In this talk we will discuss how the A-CCP measurements contributes to air-quality and the geostationary constellation, and conversely, how the geostationary constellation helps answering fundamental A-CCP science objectives.

Da Silva, Arlindo↗