Engineering topics
Stephens, Graeme L.
Publications and source records attributed to Stephens, Graeme L..
Strong Constraints on Aerosol-Cloud Interactions from Volcanic Eruptions
Aerosols have a potentially large effect on climate, particularly through their interactions with clouds, but the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain. Large volcanic eruptions produce sulfur dioxide, which in turn produces aerosols; these eruptions thus represent a natural experiment through which to quantify aerosol-cloud interactions. Here we show that the massive 2014-2015 fissure eruption in Holuhraun, Iceland, reduced the size of liquid cloud droplets - consistent with expectations - but had no discernible effect on other cloud properties. The reduction in droplet size led to cloud brightening and global-mean radiative forcing of around minus 0.2 watts per square metre for September to October 2014. Changes in cloud amount or cloud liquid water path, however, were undetectable, indicating that these indirect effects, and cloud systems in general, are well buffered against aerosol changes. This result will reduce uncertainties in future climate projections, because we are now able to reject results from climate models with an excessive liquid-water-path response.
Contemplating Synergistic Algorithms for the NASA ACE Mission
ACE is a proposed Tier 2 NASA Decadal Survey mission that will focus on clouds, aerosols, and precipitation as well as ocean ecosystems. The primary objective of the clouds component of this mission is to advance our ability to predict changes to the Earth's hydrological cycle and energy balance in response to climate forcings by generating observational constraints on future science questions, especially those associated with the effects of aerosol on clouds and precipitation. ACE will continue and extend the measurement heritage that began with the A-Train and that will continue through Earthcare. ACE planning efforts have identified several data streams that can contribute significantly to characterizing the properties of clouds and precipitation and the physical processes that force these properties. These include dual frequency Doppler radar, high spectral resolution lidar, polarimetric visible imagers, passive microwave and submillimeter wave radiometry. While all these data streams are technologically feasible, their total cost is substantial and likely prohibitive. It is, therefore, necessary to critically evaluate their contributions to the ACE science goals. We have begun developing algorithms to explore this trade space. Specifically, we will describe our early exploratory algorithms that take as input the set of potential ACE-like data streams and evaluate critically to what extent each data stream influences the error in a specific cloud quantity retrieval.
A CloudSat Perspective of the Atmospheric Water Cycle and Precipitation: Recent Progress and Grand Challenges
Summary Global - mean precipitation - is controlled by Earth's energy balance and is a quantifiable consequence of the water vapor feedback. Predictability rests on the degree to which the water vapor feedback is predictable. Regional scale - to a significant extent, changes are shaped by atmospheric circulation changes but we do not know the extent to which regional scale changes are predictable. The impacts of changes to atmospheric circulation on regional scale water cycle changes can be dramatic. Process - scale - significant biases to the CHARACTER of precipitation (frequency and intensity) is related to how the precipitation process is parameterized in models. Aerosol - We still do not know the extent to which the water cycle is influenced by aerosol but anecdotal evidence is building. The character of precipitation is affected by the way aerosol influence clouds and thus affects the forcing of the climate system through the albedo effect. Observations - we still have a way to go and need to approach the problem in a more integrated way (tie clouds, aerosol and precipitation together and then link to soil moisture, etc). Globally our capabilities seriously lag behind the science and model development.
The Global Character of the Flux of Downward Longwave Radiation
Four different types of estimates of the surface downwelling longwave radiative flux (DLR) are reviewed. One group of estimates synthesizes global cloud, aerosol, and other information in a radiation model that is used to calculate fluxes. Because these synthesis fluxes have been assessed against observations, the global-mean values of these fluxes are deemed to be the most credible of the four different categories reviewed. The global, annual mean DLR lies between approximately 344 and 350 W/sq m with an error of approximately +/-10 W/sq m that arises mostly from the uncertainty in atmospheric state that governs the estimation of the clear-sky emission. The authors conclude that the DLR derived from global climate models are biased low by approximately 10 W/sq m and even larger differences are found with respect to reanalysis climate data. The DLR inferred from a surface energy balance closure is also substantially smaller that the range found from synthesis products suggesting that current depictions of surface energy balance also require revision. The effect of clouds on the DLR, largely facilitated by the new cloud base information from the CloudSat radar, is estimated to lie in the range from 24 to 34 W/sq m for the global cloud radiative effect (all-sky minus clear-sky DLR). This effect is strongly modulated by the underlying water vapor that gives rise to a maximum sensitivity of the DLR to cloud occurring in the colder drier regions of the planet. The bottom of atmosphere (BOA) cloud effect directly contrast the effect of clouds on the top of atmosphere (TOA) fluxes that is maximum in regions of deepest and coldest clouds in the moist tropics.
Critical Reflectance Derived from MODIS: Application for the Retrieval of Aerosol Absorption over Desert Regions
Aerosols are tiny suspended particles in the atmosphere that scatter and absorb sunlight. Smoke particles are aerosols, as are sea salt, particulate pollution and airborne dust. When you look down at the earth from space sometimes you can see vast palls of whitish smoke or brownish dust being transported by winds. The reason that you can see these aerosols is because they are reflecting incoming sunlight back to the view in space. The reason for the difference in color between the different types of aerosol is that the particles arc also absorbing sunlight at different wavelengths. Dust appears brownish or reddish because it absorbs light in the blue wavelengths and scatters more reddish light to space, Knowing how much light is scattered versus how much is absorbed, and knowin~ that as a function of wavelength is essential to being able to quantify the role aerosols play in the energy balance of the earth and in climate change. It is not easy measuring the absorption properties of aerosols when they are suspended in the atmosphere. People have been doing this one substance at a time in the laboratory, but substances mix when they are in the atmosphere and the net absorption effect of all the particles in a column of air is a goal of remote sensing that has not yet been completely successful. In this paper we use a technique based on observing the point at which aerosols change from brightening the surface beneath to darkening it. If aerosols brighten a surface. they must scatter more light to space. If they darken the surface. they must be absorbing more. That cross over point is called the critical reflectance and in this paper we show that critical reflectance is a monotonic function of the intrinsic absorption properties of the particles. This parameter we call the single scattering albedo. We apply the technique to MODIS imagery over the Sahara and Sahel regions to retrieve the single scattering albedo in seven wavelengths, compare these retrievals to ground-based retrievals from AERONET instruments and compute error bars on each retrieval. The results show that we can retrieve single scattering albedo for pure dust to within +/-0.02 and mixtures of dust and smoke to within +/-0.03. No other space based instrument has achieved a retrieval of single scattering albedo that spans the spectrum from 0.47 microns to 2.13 microns and produces regional maps of aerosol absorption showing gradients and changes. Applied in a more operational fashion, such information will narrow uncertainties in estimating aerosol forcing on climate.
NASA's Integrated Instrument Simulator Suite for Atmospheric Remote Sensing from Spaceborne Platforms (ISSARS) and Its Role for the ACE and GPM Missions
Forward simulation is an indispensable tool for evaluation of precipitation retrieval algorithms as well as for studying snow/ice microphysics and their radiative properties. The main challenge of the implementation arises due to the size of the problem domain. To overcome this hurdle, assumptions need to be made to simplify compiles cloud microphysics. It is important that these assumptions are applied consistently throughout the simulation process. ISSARS addresses this issue by providing a computationally efficient and modular framework that can integrate currently existing models and is also capable of expanding for future development. ISSARS is designed to accommodate the simulation needs of the Aerosol/Clouds/Ecosystems (ACE) mission and the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission: radars, microwave radiometers, and optical instruments such as lidars and polarimeter. ISSARS's computation is performed in three stages: input reconditioning (IRM), electromagnetic properties (scattering/emission/absorption) calculation (SEAM), and instrument simulation (ISM). The computation is implemented as a web service while its configuration can be accessed through a web-based interface.
Evaluation of a Cloud Resolving Model Using TRMM Observations for Multiscale Modeling Applications
The climate change simulation community is moving toward use of global cloud resolving models (CRMs), however, current computational resources are not sufficient to run global CRMs over the hundreds of years necessary to produce climate change estimates. As an intermediate step between conventional general circulation models (GCMs) and global CRMs, many climate analysis centers are embedding a CRM in each grid cell of a conventional GCM. These Multiscale Modeling Frameworks (MMFs) represent a theoretical advance over the use of conventional GCM cloud and convection parameterizations, but have been shown to exhibit an overproduction of precipitation in the tropics during the northern hemisphere summer. In this study, simulations of clouds, precipitation, and radiation over the South China Sea using the CRM component of the NASA Goddard MMF are evaluated using retrievals derived from the instruments aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite platform for a 46-day time period that spans 5 May - 20 June 1998. The NASA Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is forced with observed largescale forcing derived from soundings taken during the intensive observing period of the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment. It is found that the GCE configuration used in the NASA Goddard MMF responds too vigorously to the imposed large-scale forcing, accumulating too much moisture and producing too much cloud cover during convective phases, and overdrying the atmosphere and suppressing clouds during monsoon break periods. Sensitivity experiments reveal that changes to ice cloud microphysical parameters have a relatively large effect on simulated clouds, precipitation, and radiation, while changes to grid spacing and domain length have little effect on simulation results. The results motivate a more detailed and quantitative exploration of the sources and magnitude of the uncertainty associated with specified cloud microphysical parameters in the CRM components of MMFs.
PARAGON: A Systematic, Integrated Approach to Aerosol Observation and Modeling
Aerosols are generated and transformed by myriad processes operating across many spatial and temporal scales. Evaluation of climate models and their sensitivity to changes, such as in greenhouse gas abundances, requires quantifying natural and anthropogenic aerosol forcings and accounting for other critical factors, such as cloud feedbacks. High accuracy is required to provide sufficient sensitivity to perturbations, separate anthropogenic from natural influences, and develop confidence in inputs used to support policy decisions. Although many relevant data sources exist, the aerosol research community does not currently have the means to combine these diverse inputs into an integrated data set for maximum scientific benefit. Bridging observational gaps, adapting to evolving measurements, and establishing rigorous protocols for evaluating models are necessary, while simultaneously maintaining consistent, well understood accuracies. The Progressive Aerosol Retrieval and Assimilation Global Observing Network (PARAGON) concept represents a systematic, integrated approach to global aerosol Characterization, bringing together modern measurement and modeling techniques, geospatial statistics methodologies, and high-performance information technologies to provide the machinery necessary for achieving a comprehensive understanding of how aerosol physical, chemical, and radiative processes impact the Earth system. We outline a framework for integrating and interpreting observations and models and establishing an accurate, consistent and cohesive long-term data record.
Towards a Multisensor Approach to Improve on Current TRMM Retrievals of Clouds and Precipitation
The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) was designed to measure tropical rainfall and its variation from a low inclination orbiting satellite. The TRMM payload was carefully chosen to overcome a number of limitations of past satellite observing systems. This payload is predicated on the combination of active and passive observations from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS). Our research over the past three years has been devoted to the challenge of developing the most effective way of combining complementary information from these sensors to provide the most consistent estimate of precipitation. We have approached this problem from three directions. The first was to carry out preliminary analysis of passive microwave and infrared data from the TMI and VIRS instruments to understand the character of clear and cloudy skies in the basis defined by polarization and brightness temperature differences. Using this information as a foundation, the properties of two retrieval algorithms were analyzed, one for retrieving ice clouds from VIRS that was developed in parallel with this project and the other for rainfall from the TMI. Finally, the knowledge gleaned from each of these studies, coupled with ancillary data from NWP models and a broadband radiative transfer model, was used to create and algorithm for synthesizing the principal components of the Earth's energy budget from the basic building blocks of the atmosphere, gases, clouds, and precipitation. Principal results from each of these areas of research and their role in the TRMM and climate communities are summarized.
The Cloudsat Mission and the EOS Constellation: A New Dimension of Space-Based Observation of Clouds and Precipitation
CloudSat is a satellite experiment designed to measure the vertical structure of clouds from space. The expected launch of CloudSat is planned for 2004 and, once launched, CloudSat will orbit in formation as part of a constellation of satellites including NASA's Aqua and Aura satellites, a NASA-CNES lidar satellite (P-C) and a CNES satellite carrying a polarimeter (PARASOL). A unique feature that CloudSat brings to this constellation is the ability to fly a precise orbit enabling the fields of view of the CloudSat radar to be overlapped with the P-C lidar footprint and the other measurements of the EOS constellation. The precision of this overlap creates a unique multi-satellite observing system for studying the atmospheric processes essential to the hydrological cycle. The vertical profile of cloud properties provided by CloudSat fills a critical gap in the investigation of feedback mechanisms linking clouds to climate. Measuring the vertical profile of cloud properties requires a combination of active and passive instruments, and this will be achieved by combining the radar data of CloudSat with active and passive data from other sensors of the constellation. This paper describes the underpinning science, and gives an overview of the mission, and provides some idea of the expected products and anticipated application of these products. Notably, the CloudSat mission is expected to provide new knowledge about global cloudiness, stimulating new areas of research on clouds including data assimilation and cloud parameterization. The mission also provides an important opportunity to demonstrate active sensor technology for future scientific and tactical applications. The CloudSat mission is a partnership between NASA/JPL, the Canadian Space Agency, Colorado State University, the US Air Force, and the US Department of Energy.