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Stevens, Bjorn

Publications and source records attributed to Stevens, Bjorn.

8 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Clouds and Convective Self-Aggregation in a Multimodel Ensemble of Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Simulations

The Radiative-Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP) is an intercomparison of multiple types of numerical models configured in radiative-convective equilibrium (RCE). RCE is an idealization of the tropical atmosphere that has long been used to study basic questions in climate science. Here, we employ RCE to investigate the role that clouds and convective activity play in determining cloud feedbacks, climate sensitivity, the state of convective aggregation, and the equilibrium climate. RCEMIP is unique among intercomparisons in its inclusion of a wide range of model types, including atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs), single column models (SCMs), cloud-resolving models (CRMs), large eddy simulations (LES), and global cloud-resolving models (GCRMs). The first results are presented from the RCEMIP ensemble of more than 30 models. While there are large differences across the RCEMIP ensemble in the representation of mean profiles of temperature, humidity, and cloudiness, in a majority of models anvil clouds rise, warm, and decrease in area coverage in response to an increase in sea surface temperature (SST). Nearly all models exhibit self-aggregation in large domains and agree that self-aggregation acts to dry and warm the troposphere, reduce high cloudiness, and increase cooling to space. The degree of self-aggregation exhibits no clear tendency with warming. There is a wide range of climate sensitivities, but models with parameterized convection tend to have lower climate sensitivities than models with explicit convection. In models with parameterized convection, aggregated simulations have lower climate sensitivities than unaggregated simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

Global Cloud-Resolving Models

Global cloud-resolving models (GCRMs) are a new category of atmospheric global models designed to solve different flavors of the nonhydrostatic equations through the use of kilometer-scale global meshes. GCRMs make it possible to explicitly simulate deep convection, thereby avoiding the need for cumulus parameterization and allowing for clouds to be “resolved” by microphysical models responding to grid-scale forcing. GCRMs require high-resolution discretization over the globe, for which a variety of mesh structures have been proposed and employed. The first GCRM was constructed 15 years ago, and in recent years, other groups have also begun adopting this approach, enabling the first intercomparison studies of such models. Because conventional general circulation models (GCMs) suffer from large biases associated with cumulus parameterization, GCRMs are attractive tools for researchers studying global weather and climate. In this review, GCRMs are described, with some emphasis on their historical development and the associated literature documenting their use. The advantages of GCRMs are presented, and currently existing GCRMs are listed and described. Future prospects for GCRMs are also presented in the final section.

Satoh, Masaki↗
DOE OSTI2019

Remote Sensing of Sea Salt Aerosol below Trade Wind Clouds

Abstract Sea salt aerosol in the boundary layer below shallow cumulus clouds is remotely observed with a Ka-band cloud radar at the Barbados Cloud Observatory and is detected in 76% of the measurements over 1 year. Carried by convection, sea salt particles with a diameter larger than 500 nm show an upward motion of 0.2 m s−1 below shallow cumulus clouds for a 2-day case study. Caused by an increasing relative humidity with increasing altitude, the sea salt particles become larger as they move closer to the cloud base. By using combined measurements of a Ka-band cloud radar and a Raman lidar, the retrieved equivolumetric diameter of the hygroscopically grown sea salt particles is found to be between 6 and 11 μm with a total number concentration of 20 cm−3 near cloud base. Assuming a fixed shape parameter, a size distribution of sea salt particles under high-relative-humidity conditions below cloud base is estimated and agrees with measurements taken by a dry-deposition sampler and online aerosol observations. The methods outlined in this paper can be used in future studies to get a better understanding of the vertical and temporal sea salt distribution in the boundary layer and sea salt aerosol–cloud interaction processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomey effect

We present the first forcing interpretation of the future anthropogenic aerosol scenarios of CMIP6 with the simple plumes parameterisation MACv2-SP. The nine scenarios for 2015 to 2100 are based on anthropogenic aerosol emissions for use in CMIP6 ( Riahi et al. , 2017 ; Gidden et al. , 2018 ) . We use the emissions to scale the observationally informed anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and the associated effect on the cloud albedo of present-day ( Fiedler et al. , 2017 ; Stevens et al. , 2017 ) into the future. The resulting scenarios in MACv2-SP are then ranked according to their strength in forcing magnitude and spatial asymmetries for anthropogenic aerosol. All scenarios, except SSP3-70 and SSP4-60, show a decrease in anthropogenic aerosol by 2100 with a range from 108 % to 36 % of the anthropogenic aerosol optical depth in 2015. We estimate the radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosol from high- and low-end scenarios in the mid-2090s by performing ensembles of simulations with the atmosphere-only configuration of MPI-ESM1.2. MACv2-SP translates the CMIP6 emission scenarios for inducing anthropogenic aerosol forcing. With the implementation in our model, we obtain forcing estimates for both the shortwave instantaneous radiative forcing (RF) and the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic aerosol relative to 1850. Here, ERF accounts for rapid atmospheric adjustments and natural variability internal to the model. The ERF of anthropogenic aerosol for the mid-2090s ranges from -0.15 W m -2 for SSP 1-19 to -0.54 W m -2 for SSP 3-70, i.e. the mid-2090s ERF is 30 %–108 % of the value in the mid-2000s due to differences in the emission pathway alone. Assuming a stronger Twomey effect changes these ERFs to -0.39 and -0.92 W m -2 , respectively, which are similar to estimates obtained from models with complex aerosol parameterisations. The year-to-year standard deviations around 0.3 W m -2 associated with natural variability highlight the necessity to average over sufficiently long time periods for estimating ERF; this is in contrast to RF that is typically well constrained after simulating just 1 year. The scenario interpretation of MACv2-SP will be used within the framework of CMIP6 and other cutting-edge scientific endeavours.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

First forcing estimates from the future CMIP6 scenarios ofanthropogenic aerosol optical properties and an associated Twomeyeffect

We present the first forcing interpretation of the future anthropogenic aerosol scenarios of CMIP6 with the simple plumes parameterisation MACv2-SP. The nine scenarios for 2015 to 2100 are based on SO 2 and NH 3 emissions for use in CMIP6 (Riahi et al., 2017; Gidden et al., in prep.). We use the emissions to scale the observationally informed anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and the associated effect on the cloud albedo of present-day (Fiedler et al., 2017; Stevens et al., 2017) into the future. The resulting scenarios in MACv2-SP are then ranked according to their strength in forcing magnitude and spatial asymmetries. Almost all scenarios show a decrease in anthropogenic aerosol by 2100 with a range of 108 % to 36 % of the anthropogenic aerosol optical depth in 2015. We estimate the spread in the radiative forcing associated with the scenarios in the mid-2090s by performing ensembles of simulations with the atmosphere-only configuration of MPI-ESM1.2. MACv2-SP herein translates the CMIP6 emission scenarios for inducing aerosol forcing. With the implementation in our model, we obtain forcing estimates for both the shortwave instantaneous (RF) and effective radiative forcing (ERF) relative to 1850. Here, ERF accounts for rapid atmospheric adjustments and natural variability internal to the model. The spread for the mid-2090s is −0.20 to −0.57 Wm −2 (−0.15 to −0.54 Wm −2 ) for RF (ERF) of anthropogenic aerosol, associated with uncertainty in the emission pathway alone, i.e., the mid-2090s forcing ranges from 33–95% (30–108%) of the mid-2000s RF (ERF). We find a larger ERF spread of −0.15 to −0.92 Wm −2 , when we additionally consider uncertainty in the magnitude of the Twomey effect. The year-to-year standard deviations around 0.3 Wm −2 associated with natural variability highlights the necessity for averaging over sufficiently long time periods for estimating ERF, in contrast to RF that is typically well constrained after simulating just one year. The scenario interpretation of MACv2-SP will be used within the framework of CMIP6 and other cutting-edge scientific endeavours.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

Ringberg15: Earth's Climate Sensitivities

To assess gaps in understanding of Earth's climate sensitivities a workshop was organised under the auspices of the WCRP (World Climate Research Programme) Grand Science Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity (Ringberg15). The workshop took place in March 2015 and gathered together over thirty experts from around the world for one week. Attendees each gave short presentations and participated in moderated discussions of specific questions related to understanding Earth's climate sensitivities. Most of the time was focused on understanding of the equilibrium climate sensitivity, defined as the equilibrium near-surface warming associated with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. The workshop produced nine recommendations, many of them focusing on specific research avenues that could be exploited to advance understanding of climate sensitivity. Many of these dealt, in one fashion or another, with the need to more sharply focus research on identifying and testing story lines for a high (larger than 4 degrees Kelvin) or low (less than 2 degrees Kelvin) equilibrium climate sensitivity. Additionally, a subset of model intercomparison projects (CFMIP (Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project), PMIP (Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project), PDRMIP (Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project), RFMIP (Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project) and VolMIP (Volcanic Forcings Model Intercomparison Project)) that have been proposed for inclusion within CMIP were identified as being central to resolving important issues raised at the workshop; for this reason modelling groups were strongly encouraged to participate in these projects. Finally the workshop participants encouraged the WCRP to initiate and support an assessment process lead by the Grand Science Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity on the topic of Earth's Climate Sensitivities, culminating in a report that will be published in 2019, forty years after the seminal report by Charney and co-authors.

Sensitivity↗
NASA NTRS2004

An Examination of the Impact of Drizzle Drops on Satellite-Retrieved Effective Particle Sizes

In general, cloud effective droplet radii are remotely sensed in the near-infrared using the assumption of a monomodal droplet size distribution. It has been observed in many instances, especially in relatively pristine marine environments, that cloud effective droplet radii derived from satellite data often exceed 15 m or more. Comparisons of remotely sensed and in situ retrievals indicate that the former often overestimates the latter in clouds with drizzle-size droplets. To gain a better understanding of this discrepancy, this paper performs a theoretical and empirical evaluation of the impact of drizzle drops on the derived effective radius.

Minnis, Patrick↗