Engineering topics

Stolarski, Richard

Publications and source records attributed to Stolarski, Richard.

15 records

NASA NTRS2018

Using Satellite Measurements of N2O to Remove Dynamical Variability from HCl Measurements

Column HCl measurements show deviations from the expected slow decline following the regulation of chlorine-containing compounds by the Montreal Protocol. We use the simultaneous measurements of N2O and HCl by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument on the Aura satellite to examine this problem. We find that the use of N2O measurements at a specific altitude to represent the impact of dynamical variability on HCl results in a derived linear trend in HCl that is negative (ranging from -2.5 to 5.3%decade-1) at all altitudes between 68 and 10 hPa. These trends are at or near 2 sigma statistical significance at all pressure levels between 68 and 10 hPa. This shows that analysis of simultaneous measurements of several constituents is a useful approach to identify small trends from data records that are strongly influenced by dynamical interannual variability.

Stolarski, Richard↗

NASA NTRS2015

Estimating Uncertainties in the Multi-Instrument SBUV Profile Ozone Merged Data Set

The MOD data set is uniquely qualified for use in long-term ozone analysis because of its long record, high spatial coverage, and consistent instrument design and algorithm. The estimated MOD uncertainty term significantly increases the uncertainty over the statistical error alone. Trends in the post-2000 period are generally positive in the upper stratosphere, but only significant at 1-1.6 hPa. Remaining uncertainties not yet included in the Monte Carlo model are Smoothing Error ( 1 from 10 to 1 hPa) Relative calibration uncertainty between N11 and N17Seasonal cycle differences between SBUV records.

Uncertainties↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Connection between Model Performance on the CCMVal Transport Diagnostics and Simulated Sensitivity of Ozone to Chlorine Change

The chemistry climate models that contributed simulations for past and future ozone evolution to the 2010 Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion were subject to extensive evaluation by the SPARC (Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate) CCMVal (Chemistry-Climate Model Validation) activity. The sensitivity of ozone to changes in composition and climate varies among the models, but the relationship between these variations and the model evaluations of CCMVal is not obvious. We have learned that the transport evaluation can be used to interpret the comparisons between observed and simulated columns of chlorine reservoirs, hydrochloric acid (HCl) and chlorine nitrate (ClONO2); these comparisons were part of the CCMVal evaluation of chemistry. The simulations with best performance on the transport diagnostics most faithfully reproduce the evolution and seasonal variation of the chlorine reservoirs as observed at NDACC (Network for Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change) stations (NyAlesund 78.9N, Kiruna 67.8N, Harestua 60.2N, Jungfraujoch 46.6N, Toronto 43.6N, Kitt Peak 31.9N, Izana 28.3N, Mauna Loa 19.5N, Lauder 45S and Arrival Heights 77.8S). In the simulations, the HCl in the lower stratosphere depends on total inorganic chlorine (Cly) and partitioning between HCl and ClON02. Total inorganic chlorine depends on the fractional release of chlorine from source gases, and ratio of ClON02 to HCl is inversely dependent on methane and varies quadratically with ozone. Simulated HCl from various models may agree with observations even though Cly is in error, partitioning is in error, or both. Simulated ozone sensitivity to chlorine is shown to be greater for models that produce larger values of chlorine nitrate for background chlorine levels, and vice versa. Comparisons with the NDACC data show why the models with 'best' transport have similar sensitivity to chlorine change. The realistic evolution of the simulated HCl and ClONO2 columns suggests realistic levels of Cly in the lower atmosphere. In addition, the wide range values for the sensitivity of ozone to chlorine obtained from the CCMVal simulations is explained by the wide range in lower atmospheric columns of ClONO2 and the concomitant wide range of levels for chlorine monoxide.

Douglass, Anne↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Vertical Structure of Relative Humidity and Ozone in the Tropical Upper Troposphere: Intercomparisons Among In Situ Observations, A-Train Measurements and Large-Scale Models

In situ measurements in the tropics have shown that in regions of active convection, relative humidity with respect to ice in the upper troposphere is typically close to saturation on average, and supersaturations greater than 20% are not uncommon. Balloon soundings with the cryogenic frost point hygrometer (CFH) at Costa Rica during northern summer, for example, show this tendency to be strongest between 11 and 15.5 km (345-360 K potential temperature, or approximately 250-120 hPa). this is the altitude range of deep convective detrainment. Additionally, simultaneous ozonesonde measurements show that stratospheric air (O3 greater than 150 ppbv) can be found as low as approximately 14 km (350 K/150 hPa). In contrast, results from northern winter show a much drier upper troposphere and little penetration of stratospheric air below the tropopause at 17.5 km (approximately 383 K). We show that these results are consistent with in situ measurements from the Measurement of Ozone and water vapor by Airbus In-service airCraft (MOZAIC) program which samples a wider, though still limited, range of tropical locations. To generalize to the tropics as a whole, we compare our insitu results to data from two A-Train satellite instruments, the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on the Aqua and Aura satellites respectively. Finally, we examine the vertical structure of water vapor, relative humidity and ozone in the NASA Goddard MERRA analysis, an assimilation dataset, and a new version of the GEOS CCM, a free-running chemistry-climate model. We demonstrate that conditional probability distributions of relative humidity and ozone are a sensitive diagnostic for assessing the representation of deep convection and upper troposphere/lower stratosphere mixing processes in large-scale analyses and climate models.

Selkirk, Henry B.↗

NASA NTRS2009

The GEOS-Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM), Versions 1,2 and 3

This paper examines evolution of key ozone and climate aspects in our range of Goddard Earth Observing System Models, Versions 1-3. Version 1 (Pawson et al., 2008; )GR) used GSFC stratospheric ozone chemistry in GEOS-4 GCM. A chronic high bias in polar ozone at low chlorine loading persisted into Version 2, which used the GEQS-5 GCM and the same chemistry. This is much improved in Version 3, which uses the GMI-COMBO stratosphere-troposphere chemistry. A dynamical problem with Version 1, the overactive nature of the Antarctic polar vortex, is corrected in Versions 2 and 3, when GEQS-5 replaces GEO5-4. Other changes between the various model versions will be documented.

Pawson, Steven↗

NASA NTRS2005

Trends from the Long-term Data Record and Models: What Do They Tell Us About our Ability to Predict Ozone Recovery?

Our industrial society has performed an experiment on the stratospheric ozone layer over the last several decades. The initial part of this experiment was the rapidly increasing release of halogen-containing compounds that carry chlorine and bromine to the stratosphere where they can cause a loss of ozone. The present part of this experiment is the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, which has led to a leveling off of these halogen compounds and the beginning of their slow removal from the atmosphere. The observation and attribution of ozone response to the halogens has been a particularly important and difficult task because of the impact of solar cycle uv variation, two major volcanic eruptions (El Chichon and Pinatubo), and interannual dynamic variability of the stratosphere. We have run 3 different simulations of the chemistry and transport of ozone and the minor constituents that affect ozone to help evaluate our understanding of the causes of ozone change and to assess our ability to predict ozone recovery with the removal of halogens from the stratosphere. One simulation, using the Goddard chemical transport model (CTM), had interannual variability in the dynamics for the entire 50 years of simulation, which included the past 3 decades (1974-2004) and the next 2 decades to 2022. The other two simulations used the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) CTM with no dynamical variability: one used a the winds and temperatures from a repeating warm Arctic winter and the other used a repeating cold Arctic winter. All simulations included the effects of aerosol surfaces from volcanic eruptions on chemical reactions as well as the variation in UV over the 11-year solar cycle.

Strahan, Susan↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Contribution of Dynamic Interannual Variability to Ozone Trends

At middle latitudes the total column ozone and the lower stratospheric ozone mixing ratio exhibit natural variability. Models and statistical analyses of observations such as SAGE ozone profiles and TOMS column measurements show that seasonal cycle, solar cycle, and interannual dynamical variability and dynamical phenomena such as the quasi- biennial oscillation all contribute to ozone variability. These must be accounted for when deriving ozone trends. Systematic or random changes in the atmospheric circulation may also contribute to ozone trends. It is presently unclear how much of the ozone trend derived from observations is due to changes in the chemical composition of the stratosphere and how much is due to changes in the atmospheric circulation. We are attempting to resolve this issue by comparing a twenty-five year simulation of ozone with fixed source gas boundary conditions with an identical simulation with time dependent source gas boundary conditions. Both simulations are driven with output from a general circulation model that produces realistic interannual variability in dynamical forcing. The model trend in ozone due to changes in composition is determined from the difference in these simulations. We compare these trends with trends determined from observations and model output using the same analysis techniques. Initial results emphasize the complications to attribution of observed ozone trends to dynamical and photochemical effects that are due to interrelationships between trends in transport, temperature, and photochemical effects. It may not be possible to describe the ozone trend as a superposition of dynamical and photochemical contributions.

Douglass, Anne↗

NASA NTRS2004

Version 8 SBUV Ozone Profile Trends Compared with Trends from a Zonally Averaged Chemical Model

Linear regression trends for the years 1979-2003 were computed using the new Version 8 merged Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) data set of ozone profiles. These trends were compared to trends computed using ozone profiles from the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) zonally averaged coupled model. Observed and modeled annual trends between 50 N and 50 S were a maximum in the higher latitudes of the upper stratosphere, with southern hemisphere (SH) trends greater than northern hemisphere (NH) trends. The observed upper stratospheric maximum annual trend is -5.5 +/- 0.9 % per decade (1 sigma) at 47.5 S and -3.8 +/- 0.5 % per decade at 47.5 N, to be compared with the modeled trends of -4.5 +/- 0.3 % per decade in the SH and -4.0 +/- 0.2% per decade in the NH. Both observed and modeled trends are most negative in winter and least negative in summer, although the modeled seasonal difference is less than observed. Model trends are shown to be greatest in winter due to a repartitioning of chlorine species and the increasing abundance of chlorine with time. The model results show that trend differences can occur depending on whether ozone profiles are in mixing ratio or number density coordinates, and on whether they are recorded on pressure or altitude levels.

Rosenfield, Joan E.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Comparison of a 2D Photochemical Model to Data Using Statistical Trend Analysis

We have analyzed our 23-year merged ozone data set for variability and trends with a statistical time-series model. To assist in that analysis, we have analyzed the Goddard 2D photochemical model for the same time period with the same time-series model. Multiple runs of the photochemical model allow us to separate the effects of various terms on ozone, such as solar cycle and volcanic eruptions. We use this to help us separate those signals from each other in the data. We also used a smoothed version of the photochemical model's prediction of global ozone change in place of a simple linear trend. We find a number of interesting results. This particular photochemical model is more sensitive to chlorine perturbations than the atmosphere appears to be. It is less sensitive to solar cycle. It predicts an effect from the Pinatubo eruption that is nearly symmetric in the two hemispheres, but the data appears to have not responded to Pinatubo in the southern mid-latitudes. These results and their uncertainties will be discussed.

Bhartia, P. K.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Some Long-Standing Issues Arising From Comparisons Between TOMS and The Ground-Based Ozone Network

Data from the series of Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometers (TOMS) have been compared to column ozone measurements taken by ground-based systems (Dobsons, Brewers and Filtermeters). On average, the comparisons show good agreement, with approximately 80% of the ground stations having less than a 2.5% standard deviation when compared to TOMS on a monthly mean basis. There are, however, differences that imply possible errors either in the TOMS ozone retrieval algorithm or in the basic assumptions used by the ground-based instruments. Some of the issues arising from these differences are: What are the relative calibrations of TOMS instruments? Why do the calibrations of the ground-based stations vary as much as they do with respect to TOMS as a transfer standard? Why are the TOMS data so much larger (approximately 6%) than the ground-based data in Antarctica and other ice-covered locations? Why is there seasonality in the difference between TOMS and ground-based stations in the Southern Hemisphere? Why are the differences a function of total ozone? Where and why are the differences a function of reflectivity? Why do some terrain and land-sea boundary features appear in the TOMS ozone data? The above issues will be highlighted by using data from TOMS and the ground stations. Plots of the individual station differences will be available.

Labow, Gordon J.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Merged Long-Term Data Sets from TOMS and SBUV Total Ozone Measurements

Total ozone has been measured by a series of nadir-viewing satellite instruments. These measurements begin with the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV) instruments on Nimbus 7, launched in late 1978. The measurements have continued with the Meteor 3 TOMS, Earth Probe TOMS, and NOAA 9,11,14 SBUV/2 instruments. The problem for producing a long-term data set is establishing the relative calibration of the various instruments to better than 1%. There was a nearly two year gap between the Meteor 3 TOMS and the Earth Probe TOMS. This gap is filled by the NOAA 9 and 11 SBUV/2 instruments, but they were in drifting orbits that result in effective gaps in the record when the equator crossing time occurs at large solar zenith angle. We have used recently re-derived calibrations of the SBUV instruments using the D-pair (306/313 nm wavelengths) data at the equator. These equatorial D-pair measurements should maintain the internal calibration of each instrument better than previous approaches. We then use the comparisons between instruments during their overlap periods to establish a consistent calibration over the entire data set. The resulting merged ozone data set is independent of the ground-based Dobson/Brewer network.

Stolarski, Richard↗

NASA NTRS1992

The 1991 Antarctic ozone hole - TOMS observations

The 1991 Antarctic springtime ozone decline, as measured by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS), was similar to those of earlier deep ozone hole years, 1987, 1989, and 1990. The minimum total ozone value was recorded on October 5, 1991 at 108 Dobson units near the South Pole. This was 8 DU lower than in any of the earlier years. Four of the last five years have exhibited an extensive, deep ozone hole. The area of the hole was about the same as in 1987, 1989, and 1990. The recovery of the low total ozone values occurred in mid-November as the polar vortex broke up.

Krueger, Arlin↗

NASA NTRS1992

Measured trends in stratospheric ozone

Recent findings, based on both ground-based and satellite measurements, have established that there has been an apparent downward trend in the total column amount of ozone over mid-latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere in all seasons. Measurements of the altitude profile of the change in the ozone concentration have established that decreases are taking place in the lower stratosphere in the region of highest ozone concentration. Analysis of updated ozone records, through March of 1991, including 29 stations in the former Soviet Union, and analysis of independently calibrated satellite data records from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer and Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment instruments confirm many of the findings originally derived from the Dobson record concerning northern midlatitude changes in ozone. The data from many instruments now provide a fairly consistent picture of the change that has occurred in stratospheric ozone levels.

Stolarski, Richard↗

NASA NTRS1991

The 1990 Antarctica ozone hole as observed by TOMS

The 1990 Antarctic ozone hole matched the record 1987 ozone hole in depth, duration, and area. During the formation phase of the hole (August), total ozone values were the lowest yet recorded. The decline rate approximately matched the record 1987 decline and reached a minimum of 125 Dobson Units on October 4, 1990. October total ozone averages were marginally higher that 1987. As during 1987, the 1990 total ozone values within the hole slowly and steadily increased during the mid-October through November period. The ozone hole breakup was the latest yet recorded (early December), with low ozone values persisting over the pole through December, setting a record low for December average polar ozone. Temperatures were near average during the early spring, but were below normal for the late spring. Temperatures in the early spring of 1990 were substantially warmer than those observed in the early spring of 1987.

Newman, Paul↗

NASA NTRS1990

Total ozone during the 88-89 Northern Hemisphere winter

Total ozone values measured by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer during January, February, and March 1989 are analyzed. During this period, polar total ozone values did not reveal clear depletions, although average winter total ozone values indicate that a 2-6 percent ozone reduction has occurred in northern mid to high latitudes over the last 10 years. Rapid total ozone increases were seen during mid-February, resulting from a wave 2 major stratospheric warming. In order to track polar air over the warming period, total ozone trends are further analyzed using Ertel's potential vorticity.

Newman, Paul↗