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Sun, Mucun

Publications and source records attributed to Sun, Mucun.

At least 19 records

Short-Term Probabilistic Solar Forecasting via Reinforcement Learning over ECMWF

In this paper, we present an innovative reinforcement learning approach for short-term solar forecasting, leveraging data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The methodology begins with the application of the System Advisor Model (SAM) to transform various ECMWF numerical weather prediction members into predictive photovoltaic power generation. To enhance the precision of deterministic forecasting, we introduce a dynamic model selection algorithm based on Q-learning. This algorithm dynamically identifies and utilizes the most accurate ensemble member for forecasting purposes. Furthermore, we employ a support vector regression surrogate model with a Gaussian distribution to generate probabilistic forecasts, providing a holistic view of solar energy generation uncertainty. To expedite the training process and make it more practical for real-world applications, we integrate a rolling update workflow. This innovative workflow reduces the training period from months to a mere 19 days, making our method highly efficient. Numerical results of the case study show that in comparison to benchmark models, the proposed method improves the deterministic and probabilistic solar forecasting accuracy by up to 40.84% and 48.42%, respectively.

ensemble forecasting↗

Shunt-Connected FACTS and Synchronous Condensers

In recent years, the electric-transmission system has undergone a significant transformation marked by a greater integration of renewable-energy sources like wind and solar, the phasing out of thermal generation plants, and a concerted effort towards electrifying energy consumption. To keep pace with the integration of renewable-energy sources and the escalating demands of industries and households, it is imperative to expand and modernize the existing power infrastructure. These upgrades are essential to maintain grid stability, enhance power delivery, and boost overall efficiency of the system. However, challenges have emerged with the growing complexity of power grids, particularly in the realms of voltage control, transient stability, and power-quality management.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Probabilistic Hydropower Flexibility Valuation: Case Studies for Boating Flow Regime

The optimal scheduling of hydropower generation holds significant importance to power system operation. The unique requirements of environmental constraints and the power system, depending on their respective objectives, demand distinct flow patterns. While power system stakeholders strive to optimize revenue in electricity markets, stakeholders from boating recreation seeks to identify flow ranges that optimize the boating experience. In pursuit of a win-win solution, this study aims to reconcile the interests of various stakeholders in hydropower scheduling. The maximum revenue from day-ahead electricity market is explored through an optimization process considering both plant operation constraints, boating flow constraints, water availability, and market prices. Results of real world case studies at a river in California show that the proposed approach can achieve dual objectives: maximizing market revenue while addressing boating recreation necessities. In addition, as the accuracy of electricity price forecasting and flow forecasting increase, the optimal revenue becomes increasingly advantageous to hydropower plant operators.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Entropy-Infused Deep Learning Loss Function for Capturing Extreme Values in Wind Power Forecasting

Extreme scenarios in wind power generation occur with higher frequency and larger magnitude in the recent years due to the ever-increasing extreme meteorological factors. Accurate forecasting of the occurrence of extreme values in wind power generation is of great concern to ensure reliable power system operation. Recently, deep learning models have surged in popularity for wind power forecasting, with the mean squared error (MSE) loss function being commonly used. However, the MSE loss function, being sensitive to extreme values, disproportionately penalizes larger errors, cannot adequately capture the extreme values present in wind energy data, and novel loss functions have seldom been tailored for wind power forecasting. To this end, in this paper, we introduce a novel loss function specifically crafted to capture extreme values in wind power forecasting. The experimental results with four fundamental deep learning methods on open source wind power dataset validate that the new loss function is efficient and superior in all cases compared to MSE in capturing extreme values while maintaining forecasting performance.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Techno-economic assessment of electricity market potential for co-located hydro-floating PV systems

Abstract—Harnessing renewable energy from diverse sources is paramount for sustainable power systems. Recently, co-located floating PV (FPV) systems present an intriguing prospect in this context. These hybrid systems, blending hydro and solar power, may offer a more consistent electricity output and potential economic advantages. Yet, assessing their actual potential requires a comprehensive techno-economic assessment. In addition, probabilistic price forecasting has recently gained attention in electricity market because decisions based on such predictions can yield significantly higher profits than those made with point forecasts alone. To this end, this paper embarks on a journey to elucidate the electricity market potential of co-located hydro-FPV systems in a probabilistic fashion to investigate the technological merits and economic viability of co-located hydro-FPV under different market structures. Our preliminary findings suggest that LCOE and payback metrics are sensitive not only to different markets but also to different solar incentives. Concurrently, we also observe that the payback period is generally faster with a production tax credit (PTC) than an investment tax credit (ITC). This assessment serves as a cornerstone for understanding the future prospects of co-located hydro-FPV systems in modern electricity markets.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Implementation and Operation of Power Flow Control Solutions for Transmission Systems

Power-flow controls (PFCs) technologies provide a suite of alternatives to more-efficiently direct the flow of power on the grid, improving flexibility and enabling the grid to be more responsive and resilient. PFCs can be used in many cases to mitigate overloads and consequently defer the installation of grid-expansion projects. They can also be suitable options in situations where new transmission lines cannot be built because of environmental constraints, land use, or other types of restrictions. Other uses include mitigation of loop or unintended flows, forcing of contractual or scheduled flows, reduction of congestion, and mitigation solutions during large maintenance or construction projects. While many studies have demonstrated the potential economic benefits of PFC for different types of applications, the implementation implications of using multiple PFCs for system operation and reliability have not been analyzed in detail. The lack of information and practical experience on these aspects hinders adoption of this technology. One use case would be that multiple PFCs are required to coordinate congestion management. In such cases, multiple PFCs are deployed in a meshed power system to control power flows across a wide area. The challenges are associated with PFC interaction—namely, the self and mutual power-flow sensitivity of each PFC, which must be accounted for in the calculation of the respective operating setpoints. This report analyzes implementation and operation that must be considered in evaluating transmission solutions using PFCs. The report first analyzes attributes with which PFC-based solutions should comply, based on the objective and characteristics of each particular use case. It then describes different approaches for coordinated control of multiple PFC devices for different applications, including options to avoid adverse interactions and reduce risks due to inappropriate coordination. Control and operation are illustrated through case studies performed on both generic and actual power system models. This report provides insights for transmission planners and operation engineers about the implementation of PFC-based transmission solutions; consequently, it will help them make informed decisions about the adoption of the technology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Short-term Electricity Price Forecasting with Constrained Regressors

The volatility of electricity price presents a challenge to market participants as their decision-making process are highly depend on the accuracy of price forecasts. However, there is growing empirical evidence of increasing price volatility and price spikes in electricity markets as a result of variable renewable energy generation, extreme weather events, and other factors. The distribution shift caused by spikes in electricity price data differentiates the forecasting tasks from other renewable energy sources. Moreover, the observations may be compromised by cyberattacks and thus not available in the testing phase. To this end, we propose a Similarity-Enhanced Electricity Decomposition Forecasting model (SEED-Forecaster) to address the missing response problem and spikes capturing in short-term electricity price forecasting. The effectiveness of the proposed framework is tested on real-world electricity price data from California Independent System Operator (CAISO). Numerical results of case studies show that the proposed SEED-Forecsater can enhance forecasting performance, particularly in capturing electricity spikes, even under conditions without regressors during testing stage.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Bulk Power System Flow Control

On July 28, 2023, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issued Order Number 2023, targeting an improved generation-interconnection process in the United States. FERC Order No. 2023 requires transmission providers to evaluate transmission technologies, other than network expansion, that could provide system improvements and help expand bulk-power system capacity. Transmission providers must consider technologies that would fall under the category of Grid Enhancing Technologies (GETs), which provide capacity-expansion options other than conventional transmission expansion.

32 - ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZA↗

Voltage Optimization

Voltage optimization refers to a volt-var optimization technique which was originally designed to minimize energy consumption and improve end-use efficiency on the distribution system. This reduces source voltage at a substation, which lowers generation demand, reduces system losses, and improves system stability. This has been the conventional implementation of voltage optimization: focusing on regulation of voltages throughout the distribution system via coordinated adjustments of load tap changers, line-voltage regulators, switched shunt compensation, and the targeted placement of new shunt compensation. These methods have received increased focus following a growth in distributed-energy resources (DERs) interconnecting at the distribution level, given their developing capability to participate in voltage regulation. This is paired with the intermittency challenges they pose, load imbalances, and voltage fluctuations. Voltage optimization has long been an area of extensive research within the distribution system, with various strategies and philosophies demonstrating a range of effects. The conventional focus on the distribution system owes to the typical operation of transmission systems, which assumes firm local resources and flows strictly from generation resources to loads. The strategies employed in distribution have also been optimized for this typically radial configuration and operation of the distribution system.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Impact of Floating PV (FPV) System on Water Evaporation: Case Study of an Open Loop Reservoir in North Carolina

Fresh water scarcity is becoming one of the important concerns worldwide. This situation of water scarcity is further exacerbated by the increase in water evaporation due to climate change. This manuscript will address this concern by considering the impact of floating photovoltaics (FPVs) systems on water evaporation. The installation of PV modules on the water bodies can help reduce the water evaporation rate from reservoirs by reducing the evaporating area of the water surface. This work evaluates the effect of FPV on water evaporation rates in the TuckerTown reservoir located in North Carolina state of United States. Meteorological data, such as mean temperature and dew-point, are used to calculate the rate of the water evaporation by Linacre method. The simulation results for the TuckerTown case study showed that the aggregated avoided evaporated volume for one year is 9 million gallons.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Aquapv

This project brings together a multidisciplinary team to develop tools and analysis that will help U.S. industry accelerate deployment of floating PV on reservoirs and estuaries through producing: • A tool to assess potential environmental interactions of FPV on reservoirs and estuaries and thresholds for corresponding impacts. • A tailored FPV-specific techno-economic tool to guide users on financial performance and corresponding design considerations. • A synthesized tool, AquaPV, that combines the environmental and economic tools. • A set of case studies on an open-loop reservoir with a traditional hydropower plant (i.e., connected to a natural waterbody), closed-loop reservoir with a proposed pumped storage hydropower plant (i.e., manmade and disconnected from a natural waterbody), and a marine estuary (i.e., where a river meets the ocean), with an FPV system designed and modeled for each site. • A review of regulatory, environmental, and stakeholder opportunities and challenges to identify clear regulatory and environmental pathways to siting FPV on U.S. reservoirs. • A novel, high-fidelity geospatial resource assessment to estimate FPV technical potential on reservoirs in the United States.

Phillips, TylerB. [Idaho National Laboratory (INL)↗

Physics-informed Data-driven Degradation and Prognostic For Hydropower System

The hydropower system is a cyber-physical system, and the industry is experiencing high operation and maintenance (O&M) costs along with increasing unplanned outages, primarily due to aging equipment and new asset loading patterns. Current (O&M) practices in asset management are predominantly reactive rather than predictive and systematic. To address these challenges, a proposed physics-informed data-driven degradation model aims to simulate the health of components in various environments. Its purpose is to accurately characterize wear and fatigue in the pilot components of hydropower systems. Additionally, the model provides informed confidence in prognostic predictions concerning asset degradation and remaining life.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

WISP: Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies (Final Technical Report)

The complex interdependencies of cyber systems (sensors and communications), physical grids and associated electricity market operations make protecting electric power grids a significant challenge. The energy sector is constantly under new, targeted, advanced and dangerous cyber-attacks that have the potential to result in the loss of human life. These threats are further exacerbated by our need to modernize the grid. One focus of cyber security research in smart grids is the securing of the SCADA system through advanced intrusion detection systems (IDS) and bad data detection algorithms in state estimation. These methods either require full knowledge of the system topology and parameters or fail to understand the physical behaviors under attack. WISP (Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies) is designed to provide additional protection to the power grid using only publicly available data. In particular, WISP exploits the spatio-temporal nature of the real time locational marginal prices (LMPs), in conjunction with other information such as bids, weather, outages and load data to analyze anomalous power pricing behaviors and then correlate those observations to localize regions of interest and identify potential cyber events. WISP is non-intrusive as the tool is deployed as a service in the Cloud or on premise and provides reliable information to system operators for enhanced situational awareness, without impeding energy delivery functions. The WISP technology comprises three modules: the data-driven anomaly detection core, the vulnerability and risk analysis and the root cause analysis. The data-driven anomaly detection core performs the tasks of feature selection, anomaly detection and attack region localization. The vulnerability and risk analysis module provides system level information of the vulnerable variables and times, assisting the operators in selecting monitoring and protection nodes. The root cause analysis module takes the detection results and identifies potential operational conditions that contribute to the detected anomalies. In Phase I, we have demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of WISP. We developed a realistic electricity market simulator capable of generating normal and attack market data under various operational conditions. We developed a series of cyber-attack detection and analysis algorithms and evaluated them under multiple data sources. Finally, we integrated all modules into an end-to-end software, providing functions for data management, data analytics and visualization. Specifically, we have achieved: (i) real-time data acceptance from external utility interfaces with >99% acceptance rate; (ii) high performance anomaly detection algorithms with >98% detection accuracy and <0.1% false alarm rate; and (iii) ultra-low computing delay <50 milliseconds. Additionally, our team developed algorithms to identify the vulnerable variables in electricity market operations and root cause analysis functions to identify major contributors to the price spikes. These ancillary modules are necessary when deploying WISP in real world industry environment. In Phase II, we have demonstrated the effectiveness of WISP software on realistic largescale power systems. We performed red team testing for the Phase I WISP software and identified software vulnerabilities and implemented corresponding mitigation solutions. We adapted the electricity market simulator for the Texas synthetic 2000-bus system and generated datasets for the false data injection attacks. We created database and visualization interfaces for the Texas system and the ISO New England system. We performed software optimization in terms of operation efficiency, computing speed and detection accuracy. Finally, we tested the software on the Texas system and the ISO New England system and evaluated the detection performance. Overall, we achieved above 89% detection rate, below 3% false alarm rate and below 37 seconds of end-to-end detection delay.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Data-Driven Probabilistic Anomaly Detection for Electricity Market under Cyber Attacks

Information and communication technologies have been widely used in smart grid for efficient operation. However, these technologies are vulnerable to malicious cyber attacks, which may lead to severe reliability and economic issues. Recently, a variety of data-driven anomaly detection approaches have been explored to detect potential cyber attacks in smart grids. In this paper, we researched on the electricity market data aiming to identify anomalies from the locational marginal prices (LMPs) and provide a new indicator for potential cyber attacks in power grids. Specifically, a novel data-driven probabilistic anomaly detection framework is proposed for electricity market, which consists of three major components: long short-term memory (LSTM) based deterministic electricity price forecasting, probabilistic electricity price forecasting and anomaly detection. This framework is tested on a model-based electricity market simulator under two types of cyber attacks, i.e., load redistribution attack (LRA) and price responsive attack (PRA). Numerical results on the simulated LMPs show that the proposed framework is capable of detecting data anomalies over these attacks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A Data-Driven Method for Adaptive Reserve Requirement Estimation via Probabilistic Net Load Forecasting

The University of Colorado Boulder Boulder, CO, 80309, USA With the increasing penetration of renewable energy, power systems are subject to more uncertainty. This makes power system reserve scheduling more challenging. Most of the current reserve requirement determination methods calculate reserve requirements based on historical data, which does not consider the real-time or future system uncertainty. In this paper, a data-driven method is developed to determine the non-spinning reserve requirement (NSRR) in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system. The method follows the procedure of the current ERCOT method while adaptively determining the NSRR based on probabilistic net load forecasts. Case studies with two years of ERCOT data show that the developed method significantly reduces the NSRR by introducing an adaptive temporal resolution and update rate. Sensitivity analysis with different forecasting and percentile thresholds indicates the flexibility of the developed method.

non-spinning reserve↗