Engineering topics

Takemura, T.

Publications and source records attributed to Takemura, T..

8 records

DOE OSTI2020

The Southern hemisphere midlatitude circulation response to rapid adjustments and sea surface temperature driven feedbacks

Rapid adjustments – the response of meteorology to external forcing while sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice are held fixed – can affect the midlatitude circulation and contribute to long-term forced circulation responses in climate simulations. This study examines rapid adjustments in the Southern hemisphere (SH) circulation using nine models from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP), which perform fixed SST and coupled ocean experiments for five perturbations: a doubling of carbon dioxide (2xCO2), a tripling of methane (3xCH4), a five-fold increase in sulphate aerosol (5xSO4), a ten-fold increase in black carbon aerosol (10xBC) and a 2% increase in solar constant (2%Sol). In the coupled experiments, the SH eddy-driven jet shifts poleward and strengthens for forcings that produce global warming (and vice versa for 5xSO4), with the strongest response found in austral summer. In austral winter, the responses project more strongly onto a change in jet strength. For 10xBC, which induces strong shortwave absorption, the multi-model mean (MMM) rapid adjustment in DJF jet latitude is ~75% of the change in the coupled simulations. For the other forcings, which induce larger SST changes, the effect of SST-mediated feedbacks on the SH circulation is larger than the rapid adjustment. Nevertheless, for these perturbations the magnitude of the MMM jet shift due to the rapid adjustment is still around 25-33% of that in the coupled experiments. The results demonstrate the need to understand the mechanisms for rapid adjustments in the midlatitude circulation, in addition to the effect of changing SSTs.

Wood, Thomas↗

NASA NTRS2018

Sensible Heat Has Significantly Affected the Global Hydrological Cycle Over the Historical Period

Globally, latent heating associated with a change in precipitation is balanced by changes to atmospheric radiative cooling and sensible heat fluxes. Both components can be altered by climate forcing mechanisms and through climate feedbacks, but the impacts of climate forcing and feedbacks on sensible heat fluxes have received much less attention. Here we show, using a range of climate modelling results, that changes in sensible heat are the dominant contributor to the present global-mean precipitation change since preindustrial time, because the radiative impact of forcings and feedbacks approximately compensate. The model results show a dissimilar influence on sensible heat and precipitation from various drivers of climate change. Due to its strong atmospheric absorption, black carbon is found to influence the sensible heat very differently compared to other aerosols and greenhouse gases. Our results indicate that this is likely caused by differences in the impact on the lower tropospheric stability.

Myhre, G.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Weak Hydrological Sensitivity to Temperature Change over Land, Independent of Climate Forcing

We present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from ten climate models, we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2-3% per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature-driven (slow) ocean HS of 3-5%/K, while the slow land HS is only 0-2%/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. We identify a particular need for model investigations and observational constraints on convective precipitation in the Arctic, and large-scale precipitation around the Equator.

Samset, B. H.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of preindustrial to present-day black carbon and its albedo forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

As part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC) aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against observations including 12 ice core records, long-term surface mass concentrations, and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using offline models with prescribed meteorology from 1996-2000. We evaluate the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations using the recent BC snowpack measurements. Despite using the same BC emissions, the global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology: 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However, the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day increases by 2.5-3 times with little variation among models, roughly matching the 2.5-fold increase in total BC emissions during the same period.We find a large divergence among models at both Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC surface mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Ispra. However, the models fail to predict the Arctic BC seasonality due to severe underestimations during winter and spring. The simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2-3 of the BC snowpack measurements except for Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. For the ice core evaluation, models tend to adequately capture both the observed temporal trends and the magnitudes at Greenland sites. However, models fail to predict the decreasing trend of BC depositions/ice core concentrations from the 1950s to the 1970s in most Tibetan Plateau ice cores. The distinct temporal trend at the Tibetan Plateau ice cores indicates a strong influence from Western Europe, but the modeled BC increases in that period are consistent with the emission changes in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, South and East Asia. At the Alps site, the simulated BC suggests a strong influence from Europe, which agrees with the Alps ice core observations. At Zuoqiupu on the Tibetan Plateau, models successfully simulate the higher BC concentrations observed during the non-monsoon season compared to the monsoon season but overpredict BC in both seasons. Despite a large divergence in BC deposition at two Antarctic ice core sites, some models with a BC lifetime of less than 7 days are able to capture the observed concentrations. In 2000 relative to 1850, globally and annually averaged BC surface albedo forcing from the offline simulations ranges from 0.014 to 0.019Wm−2 among the ACCMIP models. Comparing offline and online BC albedo forcings computed by some of the same models, we find that the global annual mean can vary by up to a factor of two because of different aerosol models or different BC-snow parameterizations and snow cover. The spatial distributions of the offline BC albedo forcing in 2000 show especially high BC forcing (i.e., over 0.1W/sq. m) over Manchuria, Karakoram, and most of the Former USSR. Models predict the highest global annual mean BC forcing in 1980 rather than 2000, mostly driven by the high fossil fuel and biofuel emissions in the Former USSR in 1980.

snow cover↗

NASA NTRS2013

Black Carbon Vertical Profiles Strongly Affect Its Radiative Forcing Uncertainty

The impact of black carbon (BC) aerosols on the global radiation balance is not well constrained. Here twelve global aerosol models are used to show that at least 20% of the present uncertainty in modeled BC direct radiative forcing (RF) is due to diversity in the simulated vertical profile of BC mass. Results are from phases 1 and 2 of the global aerosol model intercomparison project (AeroCom). Additionally, a significant fraction of the variability is shown to come from high altitudes, as, globally, more than 40% of the total BC RF is exerted above 5 km. BC emission regions and areas with transported BC are found to have differing characteristics. These insights into the importance of the vertical profile of BC lead us to suggest that observational studies are needed to better characterize the global distribution of BC, including in the upper troposphere.

black carbon↗

NASA NTRS2013

Radiative Forcing of the Direct Aerosol Effect from AeroCom Phase II Simulations

We report on the AeroCom Phase II direct aerosol effect (DAE) experiment where 16 detailed global aerosol models have been used to simulate the changes in the aerosol distribution over the industrial era. All 16 models have estimated the radiative forcing (RF) of the anthropogenic DAE, and have taken into account anthropogenic sulphate, black carbon (BC) and organic aerosols (OA) from fossil fuel, biofuel, and biomass burning emissions. In addition several models have simulated the DAE of anthropogenic nitrate and anthropogenic influenced secondary organic aerosols (SOA). The model simulated all-sky RF of the DAE from total anthropogenic aerosols has a range from −0.58 to −0.02 W m(sup−2), with a mean of −0.27 W m(sup−2 for the 16 models. Several models did not include nitrate or SOA and modifying the estimate by accounting for this with information slightly strengthens the mean. Modifying the model estimates for missing aerosol components and for the time period 1750 to 2010 results in a mean RF for the DAE of −0.35 W m(sup−2). Compared to AeroCom Phase I (Schulz et al., 2006) we find very similar spreads in both total DAE and aerosol component RF. However, the RF of the total DAE is stronger negative and RF from BC from fossil fuel and biofuel emissions are stronger positive in the present study than in the previous AeroCom study.We find a tendency for models having a strong (positive) BC RF to also have strong (negative) sulphate or OA RF. This relationship leads to smaller uncertainty in the total RF of the DAE compared to the RF of the sum of the individual aerosol components. The spread in results for the individual aerosol components is substantial, and can be divided into diversities in burden, mass extinction coefficient (MEC), and normalized RF with respect to AOD. We find that these three factors give similar contributions to the spread in results

Computer simulation↗

NASA NTRS2012

Evaluation of Cloud Microphysics Simulated using a Meso-Scale Model Coupled with a Spectral Bin Microphysical Scheme through Comparison with Observation Data by Ship-Borne Doppler and Space-Borne W-Band Radars

Equivalent radar reflectivity factors (Ze) measured by W-band radars are directly compared with the corresponding values calculated from a three-dimensional non-hydrostatic meso-scale model coupled with a spectral-bin-microphysical (SBM) scheme for cloud. Three case studies are the objects of this research: one targets a part of ship-borne observation using 95 GHz Doppler radar over the Pacific Ocean near Japan in May 2001; other two are aimed at two short segments of space-borne observation by the cloud profiling radar on CloudSat in November 2006. The numerical weather prediction (NWP) simulations reproduce general features of vertical structures of Ze and Doppler velocity. A main problem in the reproducibility is an overestimation of Ze in ice cloud layers. A frequency analysis shows a strong correlation between ice water contents (IWC) and Ze in the simulation; this characteristic is similar to those shown in prior on-site studies. From comparing with the empirical correlations by the prior studies, the simulated Ze is overestimated than the corresponding values in the studies at the same IWC. Whereas the comparison of Doppler velocities suggests that large-size snowflakes are necessary for producing large velocities under the freezing level and hence rules out the possibility that an overestimation of snow size causes the overestimation of Ze. Based on the results of several sensitivity tests, we conclude that the source of the overestimation is a bias in the microphysical calculation of Ze or an overestimation of IWC. To identify the source of the problems needs further validation research with other follow-up observations.

Iguchi, T.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Model Intercomparison of Indirect Aerosol Effects

Modeled differences in predicted effects are increasingly used to help quantify the uncertainty of these effects. Here, we examine modeled differences in the aerosol indirect effect in a series of experiments that help to quantify how and why model-predicted aerosol indirect forcing varies between models. The experiments start with an experiment in which aerosol concentrations, the parameterization of droplet concentrations and the autoconversion scheme are all specified and end with an experiment that examines the predicted aerosol indirect forcing when only aerosol sources are specified. Although there are large differences in the predicted liquid water path among the models, the predicted aerosol first indirect effect for the first experiment is rather similar, about -0.6 W/sq m to -0.7 W/sq m. Changes to the autoconversion scheme can lead to large changes in the liquid water path of the models and to the response of the liquid water path to changes in aerosols. Adding an autoconversion scheme that depends on the droplet concentration caused a larger (negative) change in net outgoing shortwave radiation compared to the 1st indirect effect, and the increase varied from only 22% to more than a factor of three. The change in net shortwave forcing in the models due to varying the autoconversion scheme depends on the liquid water content of the clouds as well as their predicted droplet concentrations, and both increases and decreases in the net shortwave forcing can occur when autoconversion schemes are changed. The parameterization of cloud fraction within models is not sensitive to the aerosol concentration, and, therefore, the response of the modeled cloud fraction within the present models appears to be smaller than that which would be associated with model "noise". The prediction of aerosol concentrations, given a fixed set of sources, leads to some of the largest differences in the predicted aerosol indirect radiative forcing among the models, with values of cloud forcing ranging from -0.3 W/sq m to -1.4W/sq m. Thus, this aspect of modeling requires significant improvement in order to improve the prediction of aerosol indirect effects.

Penner, J. E.↗