Engineering topics

Theall, Jeffrey R.

Publications and source records attributed to Theall, Jeffrey R..

4 records

NASA NTRS1999

Effects of Orbital Lifetime Reduction on the Long-Term Earth Satellite Population as Modeled by EVOLVE 4.0

The latest update of the NASA orbital debris environment model, EVOLVE 4.0, has been used to study the effect of various proposed debris mitigation measures, including the NASA 25-year guideline. EVOLVE 4.0, which includes updates of the NASA breakup, solar activity, and the orbit propagator models, a GEO analysis option, and non-fragmentation debris source models, allows for the statistical modeling and predicted growth of the particle population >1 mm in characteristic length in LEO and GEO orbits. The initial implementation of this &odel has been to study the sensitivity of the overall LEO debris environment to mitigation measures designed to limit the lifetime of intact objects in LEO orbits. The mitigation measures test matrix for this study included several commonly accepted testing schemes, i.e., the variance of the maximum LEO lifetime from 10 to 50 years, the date of the initial implementation of this policy, the shut off of all explosions at some specified date, and the inclusion of disposal orbits. All are timely studies in that all scenarios have been suggested by researchers and satellite operators as options for the removal of debris from LEO orbits.

Krisko, Paula H.↗

NASA NTRS1999

The Use of the Satellite Breakup Risk Assessment Model (SBRAM) to Characterize Collision Risk to Manned Spacecraft

NASA uses environment models such as ORDEM96 to characterize the long-term orbital debris collision hazard for spacecraft in LEO. Occasionally, however, there are breakups of satellites or rocket bodies that create enhanced collision hazard for a period of time. This enhanced collision hazard can pose increased risks to space operations - especially those involving manned missions where the tolerance for risk is very low. NASA has developed SBRAM to simulate the enhanced debris environment in the days and weeks that follow such a breakup. This simulation provides the kind of risk probabilities that can be used by mission planners to consider if changes are warranted for the mission. Announcements of breakups come to NASA from US Space Command as soon as they are identified. The pre-breakup orbit and time of breakup are used to determine the initial conditions of the explosion. SBRAM uses the latest explosion models developed at NASA to simulate a debris cloud for the breakup. The model uses a Monte Carlo technique to create a random debris cloud from the probability distributions in the breakup model. Each piece of debris randomly created in the cloud is propagated in a deterministic manner to include the effects of drag and other orbital perturbations. The detailed geometry of each simulated close approach to the target spacecraft is noted and logged and the collision probability is computed using an estimated probability density in down-range and cross-range positions of both the target spacecraft and debris object. The collision probability is computed from the overlap of these probability densities for each close-approach geometry and summed over all computed conjunctions. Cloud propagation runs over the desired time interval are then repeated until the scale of the collision risk can be estimated to a desired precision. This paper presents an overview of the SBRAM model and a number of examples, both real and hypothetical, to demonstrate its use. In addition, a number of different examples are shown how the data can be used by decision makers on issues such as spacecraft orientation and timing of EVAs.

Matney, Mark J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

CONSTELL: NASA's Satellite Constellation Model

The CONSTELL program represents an initial effort by the orbital debris modeling group at NASA/JSC to address the particular issues and problems raised by the presence of LEO satellite constellations. It was designed to help NASA better understand the potential orbital debris consequences of having satellite constellations operating in the future in LEO. However, it could also be used by constellation planners to evaluate architecture or design alternatives that might lessen debris consequences for their constellation or lessen the debris effects on other users of space. CONSTELL is designed to perform debris environment projections rapidly so it can support parametric assessments involving either the constellations themselves or the background environment which represents non-constellation users of the space. The projections need to be calculated quickly because a number of projections are often required to adequately span the parameter space of interest. To this end CONSTELL uses the outputs of other NASA debris environment models as inputs, thus doing away with the need for time consuming upfront calculations. Specifically, CONSTELL uses EVOLVE or ORDEM96 debris spatial density results as its background environment, debris cloud snapshot templates to simulate debris cloud propagation, and time dependent orbit profiles of the intact non- functional constellation spacecraft and upper stages. In this paper the environmental consequences of the deployment of particular LEO satellite constellations using the CONSTELL model will be evaluated. Constellations that will undergo a parametric assessment will reflect realistic parameter values. Among other results the increase in loss rate of non-constellation spacecraft, the number of collisions involving constellation elements, and the replacement rate of constellation satellites as a result of debris impact will be presented.

Theall, Jeffrey R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Particle and field signatures during pseudobreakup and major expansion onset

The temporal and spatial scales of the onset of two types of substorm events are investigated. These substorms were cases where the expansion onset had precursor localized auroral activation without significant negative bay enhancement, that is, 'pseudobreakup'. High-resolution energetic particle and magnetic field data at synchronous orbit are used for the analysis together with auroral and magnetic field data simultaneously taken from ground-based instrumentation. The auroral structure following the pseudobreakup significantly resembled the major expansion aurora, except in its spatial scale. Typical magnetospheric onset signatures such as tail current diversion, dipolarization, and injection were observed associated with some of the pseudobreakups. The major expansion, on the other hand, consisted of a number of rather localized injections and expansions, each of which had timescales of 2-8 min, a comparable timescale to that of pseudobreakups. This study shows that there does not appear to be any phenomenological differences between pseudobreakups and major expansion onsets. The major difference between pseudobreakups and major expansion onsets would be the number of occurrences, as well as the intensity and the scale size of the magnetospheric source.

Nakamura, Rumi↗