Engineering topics

Thiros, Nicholas E.

Publications and source records attributed to Thiros, Nicholas E..

3 records

DOE OSTI2024

Old-Aged groundwater contributes to mountain hillslope hydrologic dynamics

Understanding connectivity between the soil and deeper bedrock groundwater is needed to accurately predict a watershed’s response to perturbation, such as drought. Yet, the bedrock groundwater dynamics in mountainous environments are typically under-constrained and excluded from watershed hydrologic models. Here, we investigate the role of groundwater characterized with decadal and longer water ages on the hydrologic and mass-transport processes within a steep snow-dominated mountain hillslope in the Central Rocky Mountains (USA). We quantify subsurface and surface water mass-balance, groundwater flowpaths, and age distributions using the ParFlow-CLM integrated hydrologic and EcoSLIM particle tracking models, which are compared to hydrometric and environmental tracer observations. An ensemble of models with varied soil and hydrogeologic parameters reproduces observed groundwater levels and century-scale mean ages inferred from environmental tracers. The numerical models suggest soil water near the toe of the hillslope contains considerable (>60 % of the mass-flux) contributions from bedrock flowpaths characterized with water ages >10 years. Flowpath connectivity between the deeper bedrock and soil systems is present throughout the year, highlighting the potentially critical role of groundwater with old ages on processes such as evapotranspiration and streamflow generation. The coupled numerical model and groundwater age observations show the bedrock groundwater system influences the hillslope hydrodynamics and should be considered in mountain watershed conceptual and numerical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Constraining Bedrock Groundwater Residence Times in a Mountain System With Environmental Tracer Observations and Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification

Groundwater residence time distributions provide fundamental insights on the hydrological processes within watersheds. Yet, observations that can constrain groundwater residence times over broad timescales remain scarce in mountain catchment studies. We use environmental tracers (CFC-12, SF 6 , 3 H, and 4 He) to investigate groundwater residence times along a hillslope in the East River Watershed, Colorado, USA. We develop a Bayesian inference framework that applies a Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to estimate noble gas recharge temperature, elevation, and excess-air parameters and the resulting environmental tracer concentrations. MCMC is then used to propagate the environmental tracer uncertainties to estimates of groundwater mean residence times inferred with lumped parameter models. All samples contain 3 H, CFC-12, and SF 6 in addition to terrigenic 4 He, suggesting a mixture of water characterized by modern and premodern residence times. 4He exponential mean residence times range from hundreds of years at the upslope well to thousands of years at the toe-slope well assuming average crustal production rates. We find that binary mixing residence time distributions with separate young and old mixing fractions are needed to predict the 4 He, CFC-12, SF 6 , and 3 H observations, supporting the importance of flow path mixing in this bedrock system. Our findings that the fractured bedrock hosts groundwater with a mixture of residence times ranging from decades to millennia suggest variable recharge dynamics and flow path mixing along the hillslope and highlight the importance of characterizing groundwater systems with observations that are sensitive to transport over a broad range of residence times.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying subsurface parameter and transport uncertainty using surrogate modelling and environmental tracers

Here, we combine physics-based groundwater reactive transport modelling with machine-learning techniques to quantify hydrogeological model and solute transport predictive uncertainties. We train an artificial neural network (ANN) on a dataset of groundwater hydraulic heads and 3 H concentrations generated using a high-fidelity groundwater reactive transport model. Using the trained ANN as a surrogate model to reproduce the input–output response of the high-fidelity reactive transport model, we quantify the posterior distributions of hydrogeological parameters and hydraulic forcing conditions using Markov chain Monte Carlo calibration against field observations of groundwater hydraulic heads and 3 H concentrations. We demonstrate the methodology with a model application that predicts Chlorofluorocarbon-12 (CFC-12) solute transport at a contaminated field site in Wyoming, United States. Our results show that including 3 H observations in the calibration dataset reduced the uncertainty in the estimated permeability field and infiltration rates, compared to calibration against hydraulic heads alone. However, predictive uncertainty quantification shows that CFC-12 transport predictions conditioned to the parameter posterior distributions cannot reproduce the field measurements. We found that calibrating the model to hydraulic head and 3 H observations results in groundwater mean ages that are too large to explain the observed CFC-12 concentrations. The coupling of the physics-based reactive transport model with the machine-learning surrogate model allows us to efficiently quantify model parameter and predictive uncertainties, which is typically computationally intractable using reactive transport models alone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗