Soil moisture controls over carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions: a review
Not Available
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Engineering topics
Tian, Hanqin
Publications and source records attributed to Tian, Hanqin.
The key role of forest disturbance in reconciling estimates of the northern carbon sink
Northern forests are an important carbon sink, but our understanding of the driving factors is limited due to discrepancies between dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and atmospheric inversions. We show that DGVMs simulate a 50% lower sink (1.1 ± 0.5 PgC yr –1 over 2001–2021) across North America, Europe, Russia, and China compared to atmospheric inversions (2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr –1 ). We explain why DGVMs underestimate the carbon sink by considering how they represent disturbance processes, specifically the overestimation of fire emissions, and the lack of robust forest demography resulting in lower forest regrowth rates than observed. We reconcile net sink estimates by using alternative disturbance-related fluxes. We estimate carbon uptake through forest regrowth by combining satellite-derived forest age and biomass maps. We calculate a regrowth flux of 1.1 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 , and combine this with satellite-derived estimates of fire emissions (0.4 ± 0.1 PgC yr –1 ), land-use change emissions from bookkeeping models (0.9 ± 0.2 PgC yr –1 ), and the DGVM-estimated sink from CO 2 fertilisation, nitrogen deposition, and climate change (2.2 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 ). The resulting ‘bottom-up’ net flux of 2.1 ± 0.9 PgC yr –1 agrees with atmospheric inversions. The reconciliation holds at regional scales, increasing confidence in our results.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Critical needs to close monitoring gaps in pan-tropical wetland CH 4 emissions
Global wetlands are the largest and most uncertain natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ). The FLUXNET-CH 4 synthesis initiative has established a global network of flux tower infrastructure, offering valuable data products and fostering a dedicated community for the measurement and analysis of methane flux data. Existing studies using the FLUXNET-CH 4 Community Product v1.0 have provided invaluable insights into the drivers of ecosystem-to-regional spatial patterns and daily-to-decadal temporal dynamics in temperate, boreal, and Arctic climate regions. However, as the wetland CH 4 monitoring network grows, there is a critical knowledge gap about where new monitoring infrastructure ought to be located to improve understanding of the global wetland CH 4 budget. Here we address this gap with a spatial representativeness analysis at existing and hypothetical observation sites, using 16 process-based wetland biogeochemistry models and machine learning. We find that, in addition to eddy covariance monitoring sites, existing chamber sites are important complements, especially over high latitudes and the tropics. Furthermore, expanding the current monitoring network for wetland CH 4 emissions should prioritize, first, tropical and second, sub-tropical semi-arid wetland regions. Considering those new hypothetical wetland sites from tropical and semi-arid climate zones could significantly improve global estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions and reduce bias by 79% (from 76 to 16 TgCH 4 y -1 ), compared with using solely existing monitoring networks. Our study thus demonstrates an approach for long-term strategic expansion of flux observations.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Response of hypoxia to future climate change is sensitive to methodological assumptions
Climate-induced changes in hypoxia are among the most serious threats facing estuaries, which are among the most productive ecosystems on Earth. Future projections of estuarine hypoxia typically involve long-term multi-decadal continuous simulations or more computationally efficient time slice and delta methods that are restricted to short historical and future periods. We make a first comparison of these three methods by applying a linked terrestrial–estuarine model to the Chesapeake Bay, a large coastal-plain estuary in the eastern United States. Results show that the time slice approach accurately captures the behavior of the continuous approach, indicating a minimal impact of model memory. However, increases in mean annual hypoxic volume by the mid-twenty-first century simulated by the delta approach (+ 19%) are approximately twice as large as the time slice and continuous experiments (+ 9% and + 11%, respectively), indicating an important impact of changes in climate variability. Our findings suggest that system memory and projected changes in climate variability, as well as simulation length and natural variability of system hypoxia, should be considered when deciding to apply the more computationally efficient delta and time slice methods.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Trends and Drivers of Terrestrial Sources and Sinks of Carbon Dioxide: An Overview of the TRENDY Project
The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the global carbon cycle, and there is a recognized need for regularly updated estimates of land-atmosphere exchange at regional and global scales. An international ensemble of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), known as the “Trends and drivers of the regional scale terrestrial sources and sinks of carbon dioxide” (TRENDY) project, quantifies land biophysical exchange processes and biogeochemistry cycles in support of the annual Global Carbon Budget assessments and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes, phase 2 project. DGVMs use a common protocol and set of driving data sets. A set of factorial simulations allows attribution of spatio-temporal changes in land surface processes to three primary global change drivers: changes in atmospheric CO 2 , climate change and variability, and Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC). Here, we describe the TRENDY project, benchmark DGVM performance using remote-sensing and other observational data, and present results for the contemporary period. Simulation results show a large global carbon sink in natural vegetation over 2012–2021, attributed to the CO 2 fertilization effect (3.8 ± 0.8 PgC/yr) and climate (–0.58 ± 0.54 PgC/yr). Forests and semi-arid ecosystems contribute approximately equally to the mean and trend in the natural land sink, and semi-arid ecosystems continue to dominate interannual variability. The natural sink is offset by net emissions from LULCC (–1.6 ± 0.5 PgC/yr), with a net land sink of 1.7 ± 0.6 PgC/yr. Despite the largest gross fluxes being in the tropics, the largest net land-atmosphere exchange is simulated in the extratropical regions.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
The Modeled Seasonal Cycles of Surface N 2 O Fluxes and Atmospheric N 2 O
Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone-depleting substance with large and growing anthropogenic emissions. Previous studies identified the influx of N 2 O-depleted air from the stratosphere to partly cause the seasonality in tropospheric N 2 O (aN 2 O), but other contributions remain unclear. Here, we combine surface fluxes from eight land and four ocean models from phase 2 of the Nitrogen/N 2 O Model Intercomparison Project with tropospheric transport modeling to simulate aN 2 O at eight remote air sampling sites for modern and pre-industrial periods. Models show general agreement on the seasonal phasing of zonal-average N 2 O fluxes for most sites, but seasonal peak-to-peak amplitudes differ several-fold across models. The modeled seasonal amplitude of surface aN 2 O ranges from 0.25 to 0.80 ppb (interquartile ranges 21%–52% of median) for land, 0.14–0.25 ppb (17%–68%) for ocean, and 0.28–0.77 ppb (23%–52%) for combined flux contributions. The observed seasonal amplitude ranges from 0.34 to 1.08 ppb for these sites. The stratospheric contributions to aN 2 O, inferred by the difference between the surface-troposphere model and observations, show 16%–126% larger amplitudes and minima delayed by ~1 month compared to Northern Hemisphere site observations. Land fluxes and their seasonal amplitude have increased since the pre-industrial era and are projected to grow further under anthropogenic activities. Our results demonstrate the increasing importance of land fluxes for aN 2 O seasonality. Considering the large model spread, in situ aN 2 O observations and atmospheric transport-chemistry models will provide opportunities for constraining terrestrial and oceanic biosphere models, critical for projecting carbon-nitrogen cycles under ongoing global warming.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Estuarine Dissolved Organic Carbon Flux from Space: With Application to Chesapeake and Delaware Bays
This study uses a neural network model trained with in situ data, combined with satellite data and hydrodynamic model products, to compute the daily estuarine export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) at the mouths of Chesapeake Bay (CB) and Delaware Bay (DB) from 2007 to 2011. Both bays show large flux variability with highest fluxes in spring and lowest in fall as well as interannual flux variability (0.18 and 0.27 Tg C/year in 2008 and 2010 for CB; 0.04 and 0.09 Tg C/year in 2008 and 2011 for DB). Based on previous estimates of total organic carbon (TOCexp) exported by all Mid-Atlantic Bight estuaries (1.2 Tg C/year), the DOC export (CB + DB) of 0.3 Tg C/year estimated here corresponds to 25% of the TOCexp. Spatial and temporal covariations of velocity and DOC concentration provide contributions to the flux, with larger spatial influence. Differences in the discharge of fresh water into the bays (74 billion m(exp3)/year for CB and 21 billion m9exp3)/year for DB) and their geomorphologies are major drivers of the differences in DOC fluxes for these two systems. Terrestrial DOC inputs are similar to the export of DOC at the bay mouths at annual and longer time scales but diverge significantly at shorter time scales (days to months). Future efforts will expand to the Mid-Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Maine, and its major rivers and estuaries, in combination with coupled terrestrial-estuarine-ocean biogeochemical models that include effects of climate change, such as warming and CO2 increase.
Signorini, Sergio↗
Ocean Circulation Causes Strong Variability in the Mid-Atlantic Bight Nitrogen Budget
Understanding of nitrogen cycling on continental shelves, a critical component of global nutrient cycling, is hampered by limited observations compared to the strong variability on a wide range of time and space scales. Numerical models have the potential to partially alleviate this issue by filling spatio-temporal data gaps and hence resolving annual area-integrated nutrient fluxes. In this study, a three-dimensional bio geo chemical-circulation model was implemented to simulate the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) nitrogen budget. Model results demonstrate that, on average, MAB net community production (NCP) was positive (plus 0.27 teragrams (Tg) Nitrogen per year), indicating net autotrophy. Inter-annual variability in NCP was strong, with annual values ranging between 0.19 and 0.41 Tg N/year. Along-shelf and across-shelf horizontal transport fluxes were the other dominant terms in the nitrogen budget and were primarily responsible for this NCP variability. The along-shelf current transported nitrogen from the north (0.65 Tg N/year) into the MAB, supplementing the nitrogen entering from terrestrial inputs (0.27 Tg N/year). However, NCP was highest in the year when total water volume transport and inorganic nitrogen input was strongest across the continental slope in the southern MAB, rather than when terrestrial inputs were greatest. Inter-annual variability of NCP appears to be linked to changes in the positions of the Gulf Stream and Slope Water Gyre. Overall, the strong spatio temporal variability of the nitrogen fluxes highlights the importance of observations throughout all seasons and multiple years in order to accurately resolve the current status and future changes of the MAB nitrogen budget.
Friedrichs, Marjorie A. M.↗
Past and Future Drought in Mongolia
The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming.
drought projection↗
Variability and Quasi-Decadal Changes in the Methane Budget over the Period 2000-2012
Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4) budget over 2000- 2012, we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry), inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008-2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16-32] Tg CH4 yr(exp -1) higher methane emissions over the period 2008-2012 compared to 2002-2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002-2006 and 2008-2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.2) inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. We apply isotopic signatures to the emission changes estimated for individual studies based on five emission sectors and find that for six individual top-down studies (out of eight) the average isotopic signature of the emission changes is not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric 13CH4. However, the partitioning in emission change derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH4 emissions. In addition, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric 13CH4 observations. In most of the top-down studies included here, OH concentrations are considered constant over the years (seasonal variations but without any inter-annual variability). As a result, the methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) varies mainly through the change in methane concentrations and not its oxidants. For these reasons, changes in the methane loss could not be properly investigated in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.
Saunois, Marielle↗
Global Wetland Contribution to 2000-2012 Atmospheric Methane Growth Rate Dynamics
Increasing atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations have contributed to approximately 20% of anthropogenic climate change. Despite the importance of CH4 as a greenhouse gas, its atmospheric growth rate and dynamics over the past two decades, which include a stabilization period (1999-2006), followed by renewed growth starting in 2007, remain poorly understood. We provide an updated estimate of CH4 emissions from wetlands, the largest natural global CH4 source, for 2000-2012 using an ensemble of biogeochemical models constrained with remote sensing surface inundation and inventory-based wetland area data. Between 2000-2012, boreal wetland CH4 emissions increased by 1.2 Tg yr(sup -1) (-0.2-3.5 Tg yr(sup -1), tropical emissions decreased by 0.9 Tg yr(sup -1) (-3.2-1.1 Tg yr(sup -1), yet globally, emissions remained unchanged at 184 +/- 22 Tg yr(sup -1). Changing air temperature was responsible for increasing high-latitude emissions whereas declines in low-latitude wetland area decreased tropical emissions; both dynamics are consistent with features of predicted centennial-scale climate change impacts on wetland CH4 emissions. Despite uncertainties in wetland area mapping, our study shows that global wetland CH4 emissions have not contributed significantly to the period of renewed atmospheric CH4 growth, and is consistent with findings from studies that indicate some combination of increasing fossil fuel and agriculture-related CH4 emissions, and a decrease in the atmospheric oxidative sink.
Poulter, Benjamin↗
The Global Methane Budget 2000-2012
The global methane (CH4) budget is becoming an increasingly important component for managing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. This relevance, due to a shorter atmospheric lifetime and a stronger warming potential than carbon dioxide, is challenged by the still unexplained changes of atmospheric CH4 over the past decade. Emissions and concentrations of CH4 are continuing to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-induced greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide. Two major difficulties in reducing uncertainties come from the large variety of diffusive CH4 sources that overlap geographically, and from the destruction of CH4 by the very short-lived hydroxyl radical (OH). To address these difficulties, we have established a consortium of multi-disciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate research on the methane cycle, and producing regular (approximately biennial) updates of the global methane budget. This consortium includes atmospheric physicists and chemists, biogeochemists of surface and marine emissions, and socio-economists who study anthropogenic emissions. Following Kirschke et al. (2013), we propose here the first version of a living review paper that integrates results of top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modeling framework) and bottom-up models, inventories and data-driven approaches (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, and inventories for anthropogenic emissions, data-driven extrapolations).For the 2003-2012 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by top-down inversions at 558 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 540-568. About 60 of global emissions are anthropogenic (range 50-65%). Since 2010, the bottom-up global emission inventories have been closer to methane emissions in the most carbon-intensive Representative Concentrations Pathway (RCP8.5) and higher than all other RCP scenarios. Bottom-up approaches suggest larger global emissions (736 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 596-884) mostly because of larger natural emissions from individual sources such as inland waters, natural wetlands and geological sources. Considering the atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget, it is likely that some of the individual emissions reported by the bottom-up approaches are overestimated, leading to too large global emissions. Latitudinal data from top-down emissions indicate a predominance of tropical emissions (approximately 64% of the global budget, less than 30deg N) as compared to mid (approximately 32%, 30-60deg N) and high northern latitudes (approximately 4%, 60-90deg N). Top-down inversions consistently infer lower emissions in China (approximately 58 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 51-72, minus14% ) and higher emissions in Africa (86 TgCH4 yr(exp -1), range 73-108, plus 19% ) than bottom-up values used as prior estimates. Overall, uncertainties for anthropogenic emissions appear smaller than those from natural sources, and the uncertainties on source categories appear larger for top-down inversions than for bottom-up inventories and models. The most important source of uncertainty on the methane budget is attributable to emissions from wetland and other inland waters. We show that the wetland extent could contribute 30-40% on the estimated range for wetland emissions. Other priorities for improving the methane budget include the following: (i) the development of process-based models for inland-water emissions, (ii) the intensification of methane observations at local scale (flux measurements) to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scale (surface networks and satellites) to constrain top-down inversions, (iii) improvements in the estimation of atmospheric loss by OH, and (iv) improvements of the transport models integrated in top-down inversions. The data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (http://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/GLOBAL_ METHANE_BUDGET_2016_V1.1) and the Global Carbon Project.
Saunois, Marielle↗
Global Carbon Budget 2016
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere the global carbon budget is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as +/- 1(sigma), reflecting the current capacity to characterize the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006-2015), EFF was 9.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, ELUC 1.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr,GATM 4.5+/-0.1 GtC/yr, SOCEAN 2.6+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND 3.1+/-0.9 GtC/yr. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9+/-0.5 GtC/yr, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8/yr that took place during 2006-2015.Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3+/-0.5 GtC/yr, GATM was 6.3+/-0.2 GtC/yr, SOCEAN was 3.0+/-0.5 GtC/yr, and SLAND was 1.9+/-0.9 GtC/yr. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006-2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4+/-0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2% (range of -1.0 to +1.8% ) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Nino conditions of 2015-2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565+/-55 GtC (2075+/-205 GtCO2) for 1870-2016, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set.
Quéré, Corinne Le↗