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Tianle Yuan

Publications and source records attributed to Tianle Yuan.

14 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2024

Abrupt Reduction in Shipping Emission as an Inadvertent Geoengineering Termination Shock Produces Substantial Radiative Warming

Human activities affect the Earth’s climate through modifying the composition of the atmosphere, which then creates radiative forcing that drives climate change. The warming effect of anthropogenic greenhouse gases has been partially balanced by the cooling effect of anthropogenic aerosols. In 2020, fuel regulations abruptly reduced the emission of sulfur dioxide from international shipping by about 80% and created an inadvertent geoengineering termination shock with global impact. Here we estimate the regulation leads to a radiative forcing of +0.2±0.11Wm-2 averaged over the global ocean.The amount of radiative forcing could lead to a doubling (or more) of the warming rate in the 2020s compared with the rate since 1980 with strong spatiotemporal heterogeneity.The warming effect is consistent with the recent observed strong warming in 2023 and expected to make the 2020s anomalously warm. The forcing represents 80% to the measured increase in planetary heat uptake since 2020. The radiative forcing also has strong hemispheric contrast, which has important implications for precipitation pattern changes. Our result suggests marine cloud brightening may be a viable geoengineering method in temporarily cooling the climate that has its unique challenges due to inherent spatiotemporal heterogeneity.

Tianle Yuan↗
NASA NTRS2023

Observational Evidence of Strong Forcing from Aerosol Effect on Low Cloud Coverage

Aerosols cool Earth’s climate indirectly by increasing low cloud brightness and their coverage (Cf), constituting the aerosol indirect forcing (AIF). The forcing partially offsets the greenhouse warming and positively correlates with the climate sensitivity. However, it remains highly uncertain. Here, we show direct observational evidence for strong forcing from Cf adjustment to increased aerosols and weak forcing from cloud liquid water path adjustment. We estimate that the Cf adjustment drives between 52% and 300% of additional forcing to the Twomey effect over the ocean and a total AIF of −1.1 ± 0.8 W m -2 . The Cf adjustment follows a power law as a function of background cloud droplet number concentration, N d . It thus depends on time and location and is stronger when N d is low. Cf only increases substantially when background clouds start to drizzle, suggesting a role for aerosol-precipitation interactions. Our findings highlight the Cf adjustment as the key process for reducing the uncertainty of AIF and thus future climate projections.

Tianle Yuan↗
NASA NTRS2022

Global Reduction in Ship-tracks from Sulfur Regulations for Shipping Fuel

Ship-tracks are produced by ship-emitted aerosols interacting with low clouds. Here, we apply deep learning models on satellite data to produce the first global climatology map of ship-tracks. We show that ship-tracks are at the nexus of cloud physics, maritime shipping, and fuel regulation. Our map captures major shipping lanes while missing others because of background conditions. Ship-track frequency is more than 10 times higher than a previous survey, and its interannual fluctuations reflect variations in cross-ocean trade, shipping activity, and fuel regulations. Fuel regulation can alter both detected frequency and shipping routes due to cost. The 2020 fuel regulation, together with the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, reduced ship-track frequency to its lowest level in recent decades across the globe and may have ushered in an era of low frequency. The regulation reduces the aerosol indirect forcing from ship emissions by 46% or between 0.02 and 0.27 W m −2 given its current estimates.

ship tracks↗
NASA NTRS2022

Opportunistic Experiments to Constrain Aerosol Effective Radiative Forcing

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) are considered to be the most uncertain driver of present-day radiative forcing due to human activities. The non-linearity of cloud-state changes to aerosol perturbations make it challenging to attribute causality in observed relationships of aerosol radiative forcing. Using correlations to infer causality can be challenging when meteorological variability also drives both aerosol and cloud changes independently. Natural and anthropogenic aerosol perturbations from well defined sources provide ‘opportunistic experiments’ (also known as natural experiments) to investigate ACI in cases where causality may be more confidently inferred. These perturbations cover a wide range of locations and spatio-temporal scales, including point sources such as volcanic eruptions or industrial sources, plumes from biomass burning or forest fires, and tracks from individual ships or shipping corridors.We review the different experimental conditions and conduct a synthesis of the available satellite data sets and field campaigns to place these opportunistic experiments on a common footing, facilitating new insights and a clearer understanding of key uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing. Cloud albedo perturbations are strongly sensitive to background meteorological conditions. Strong liquid water path increases due to aerosol perturbations are largely ruled out by averaging across experiments. Opportunistic experiments have significantly improved process-level understanding of ACI, but it remains unclear how reliably the relationships found can be scaled to the global level, thus demonstrating a need for deeper investigation in order to improve assessments of aerosol radiative forcing and climate change.

Matthew W Christensen↗
NASA NTRS2021

Identifying Meteorological Influences on Marine Low Cloud Mesoscale Morphology Using Satellite Classifications

Marine low cloud mesoscale morphology in the southeastern Pacific Ocean is analyzed using a large dataset of machine-learning generated classifications spanning three years. Meteorological variables and cloud properties are composited 10by mesoscale cloud type, showing distinct meteorological regimes of marine low cloud organization from the tropics to the midlatitudes. The presentation of mesoscale cellular convection, with respect to geographic distribution, boundary layer structure, and large-scale environmental conditions, agrees with prior knowledge. Two tropical and subtropical cumuliform boundary layer regimes, suppressed cumulus and clustered cumulus, are studied in detail. The patterns in precipitation, circulation, column water vapor, and cloudiness are consistent with the representation of marine shallow mesoscale convective 15 self-aggregation by large eddy simulations of the boundary layer. Although they occur under similar large-scale conditions, the suppressed and clustered low cloud types are found to be well-separated by variables associated with low-level mesoscale circulation, with surface wind divergence being the clearest discriminator between them, whether reanalysis or satellite observations are used. Clustered regimes are associated with surface convergence and suppressed regimes are associated with surface divergence.

Johannes Mohrmann↗
NASA NTRS2021

Effect of volcanic emissions on clouds during the 2008 and 2018 Kilauea degassing events

Volcanic eruptions in otherwise clean environments are “natural experiments” wherein the effects of aerosol emissions on clouds and climate can be partitioned from meteorological variability and anthropogenic activities. In this work, we combined satellite retrievals, reanalysis products, and atmospheric modeling to analyze the mechanisms of aerosol–cloud interactions during two degassing events at the Kilauea volcano in 2008 and 2018. The eruptive nature of the 2008 and 2018 degassing events was distinct from long-term volcanic activity for Kilauea. Although previous studies assessed the modulation of cloud properties from the 2008 event, this is the first time such an analysis has been reported for the 2018 event and that multiple degassing events have been analyzed and compared at this location. Both events resulted in significant changes in cloud effective radius and cloud droplet number concentration that were decoupled from local meteorology and in line with an enhanced cloud albedo. However, it is likely that the effects of volcanic emissions on liquid water path and cloud fraction were largely offset by meteorological variability. Comparison of cloud anomalies between the two events suggested a threshold response of aerosol–cloud interactions to overcome meteorological effects, largely controlled by aerosol loading. In both events, the ingestion of aerosols within convective parcels enhanced the detrainment of condensate in the upper troposphere, resulting in deeper clouds than observed under pristine conditions. Accounting for ice nucleation on ash particles led to enhanced ice crystal concentrations at cirrus levels and a slight decrease in ice water content, improving the correlation of the model results with the satellite retrievals. Overall, aerosol loading, plume characteristics, and meteorology contributed to changes in cloud properties during the Kilauea degassing events.

Katherine H. Breen↗
NASA NTRS2020

Interannual Variability and Trends of Combustion Aerosol and Dust in Major Continental Outflows Revealed by MODIS Retrievals and CAM5 Simulations During 2003-2017

Emissions and long-range transport of mineral dust and combustion-related aerosol from burning fossil fuels and biomass vary from year to year, driven by the evolution of the economy and changes in meteorological conditions and environmental regulations. This study offers both satellite and model perspectives of interannual variability and possible trend of combustion aerosol and dust in major continental outflow regions over the past 15 years (2003-2017). The decade-long record of aerosol optical depth (AOD, denoted as t), separately for combustion aerosol (τ(sub c)) and dust (τ(sub d)), over global oceans is derived from the Collection 6 aerosol products of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) onboard both Terra and Aqua. These MODIS/Aqua datasets, complemented by aerosol source-tagged simulations using the Community Atmospheric Model Version 5 (CAM5), are then analyzed to understand the interannual variability and potential trend of τ(sub c) and τ(sub d) in the major continental outflows. Both MODIS and CAM5 consistently yield a similar decreasing trend of -0.017 to - 0.020 decade(exp -1) for τ(sub c) over the North Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea that is attributable to reduced emissions from North America and Europe, respectively. On the contrary, both MODIS and CAM5 display an increasing trend of +0.017 to +0.036 decade(exp -1) for τ(sub c) over the tropical Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, and the Arabian Sea, which reflects the influence of increased anthropogenic emissions from South Asia and Middle East in the last two decades. Over the northwestern Pacific Ocean that is often affected by East Asian emissions of pollution and dust, the MODIS retrievals show a decreasing trend of - 0.021 decade(exp -1) for τ(sub c) and -0.012 decade(exp -1) for τ(sub d), which is however not reproduced by the CAM5 model. In other outflow regions strongly influenced by biomass burning smoke or dust, both MODIS retrievals and CAM5 simulations show no statistically significant trends; and the MODIS observed interannual variability is usually larger than that of the CAM5 simulation.

Hongbin Yu↗
NASA NTRS2019

Automatically Finding Ship-Tracks to Enable Large-Scale Analysis of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions

Ship tracks appear as long winding linear features in satellite images and are produced by aerosols from ship exhausts changing low cloud properties. They are one of the best examples of aerosol‐cloud interaction experiments. However, manually finding ship tracks from satellite data on a large scale is prohibitively costly while a large number of samples are required to improve our understanding. Here we train a deep neural network to automate finding ship tracks. The neural network model generalizes well as it not only finds ship tracks labeled by human experts but also detects those that are occasionally missed by humans. It finds more ship tracks than all previous studies combined and produces a map of ship track distributions off the California coast that matches well with known shipping traffic. Our technique will enable studying aerosol effects on low clouds using ship tracks on a large scale, which will potentially narrow the uncertainty of the aerosol‐cloud interactions.

aerosol cloud interactions↗
NASA NTRS2015

Quantification of Trans-Atlantic Dust Transport from Seven-year (2007-2013) Record of CALIPSO Lidar Measurements

The trans-Atlantic dust transport has important implications for human and ecosystem health, the terrestrial and oceanic biogeochemical cycle,weather systems, and climate. This study provides an observation-based multiyear estimate of trans-Atlantic dust transport using a 7-year (2007-2013) record of the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) measurements of the three dimensional distribution of aerosol backscatter, extinction and depolarization ratio in both cloud-free and above-cloud conditions. We estimate that on a basis of the 7-year average and integration over 10 deg S-30 deg N, 182 Tg a(exp -1) dust leaves the coast of North Africa at 15 deg W, of which 132 Tg a(exp -1) and 43 Tg a(exp -1) reaches 35 deg W and 75 deg W, respectively. These flux estimates have an overall known uncertainty of +/-(45-70)%. Because of lack of reliable observations, uncertainties associated with the diurnal variation of dust and the missing below-cloud dust cannot be quantified. Significant seasonal variations are observed in both the magnitude of total dust mass flux and its meridional and vertical distributions. The interannual variability of annual dust mass flux is highly anti-correlated with the prior-year Sahel Precipitation Index. Using only cloud-free aerosol observations to calculate dust mass flux could introduce a high bias when compared with all-sky conditions that include both cloud-free and above-cloud aerosol observations. The bias is about 20% at 35 deg W and 75 deg W in boreal winter and spring based on the 7-year average, as long as dust within and below low-level clouds is negligible.

trans-Atlantic dust transport↗