Engineering topics

Tiao, G. C.

Publications and source records attributed to Tiao, G. C..

6 records

NASA NTRS1998

Trends in the Vertical Distribution of Ozone: A Comparison of Two Analyses of Ozonesonde Data

We present the results of two independent analyses of ozonesonde measurements of the vertical profile of ozone. For most of the ozonesonde stations we use data that were recently reprocessed and reevaluated to improve their quality and internal consistency. The two analyses give similar results for trends in ozone. We attribute differences in results primarily to differences in data selection criteria and in utilization of data correction factors, rather than in statistical trend models. We find significant decreases in stratospheric ozone at all stations in middle and high latitudes of the northern hemisphere from 1970 to 1996, with the largest decreases located between 12 and 21 km, and trends of -3 to -10 %/decade near 17 km. The decreases are largest at the Canadian and the most northerly Japanese station, and are smallest at the European stations, and at Wallops Island, U.S.A. The mean mid-latitude trend is largest, -7 %/decade, from 12 to 17.5 km for 1970-96. For 1980-96, the decrease is more negative by 1-2 %/decade, with a maximum trend of -9 %/decade in the lowermost stratosphere. The trends vary seasonally from about 12 to 17.5 km, with largest ozone decreases in winter and spring. Trends in tropospheric ozone are highly variable and depend on region. There are decreases or zero trends at the Canadian stations for 1970-96, and decreases of -2 to -8 %/decade for the mid-troposphere for 1980-96; the three European stations show increases for 1970-96, but trends are close to zero for two stations for 1980-96 and positive for one; there are increases in ozone for the three Japanese stations for 1970-96, but trends are either positive or zero for 1980-96; the U.S. stations show zero or slightly negative trends in tropospheric ozone after 1980. It is not possible to define reliably a mean tropospheric ozone trend for northern mid-latitudes, given the small number of stations and the large variability in trends. The integrated column trends derived from the sonde data are consistent with trends derived from both surface based and satellite measurements of the ozone column.

Loogan, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature and ozone profile data for trends and model comparison

Work performed during the project period July 1, 1990 to June 30, 1992 on the statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature data, rawinsonde temperature data, and ozone profile data for the detection of trends is described. Our principal topics of research are trend analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data over the period 1978-1989; trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data for the period 1964-1988; trend analysis of Umkehr ozone profile data for the period 1977-1991; and comparison of observed ozone and temperature trends in the lower stratosphere. Analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data indicates the existence of large negative trends at 0.4 mb level, with magnitudes increasing with latitudes away from the equator. Trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data over 184 stations shows significant positive trends about 0.2 C per decade at surface to 500 mb range, decreasing to negative trends about -0.3 C at 100 to 50 mb range, and increasing slightly at 30 mb level. There is little evidence of seasonal variation in trends. Analysis of Umkehr ozone data for 12 northern hemispheric stations shows significant negative trends about -.5 percent per year in Umkehr layers 7-9 and layer 3, but somewhat less negative trends in layers 4-6. There is no pronounced seasonal variation in trends, especially in layers 4-9. A comparison was made of empirical temperature trends from rawinsonde data in the lower stratosphere with temperature changes determined from a one-dimensional radiative transfer calculation that prescribed a given ozone change over the altitude region, surface to 50 km, obtained from trend analysis of ozonsonde and Umkehr profile data. The empirical and calculated temperature trends are found in substantive agreement in profile shape and magnitude.

Tiao, G. C.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Comparisons of observed ozone and temperature trends in the lower stratosphere

One result of the ozone assessment (WMO, 1989) is that there is a significant negative ozone trend in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere from 1970 through 1986. The relationship of this trend in ozone to that of temperature in the same altitude region is examined utilizing a 62-station set of rawinsonde data, and the results are compared to the changes in temperature determined from a radiative equilibrium model calculation. The calculated and observed trends in lower stratospheric temperature indicate substantial agreement in the shape and magnitude of the vertical profiles.

Miller, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Ozone and temperature trends in the lower stratosphere

It is shown that the pattern of temperature trend with height in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere is consistent with that calculated from a model incorporating the observed ozone changes. The magnitude of the observed temperature decrease is less than that determined from the numerical model. It is found that the obverse ozone-temperature relationship does not hold. If the temperature at 20 km decreases, this by itself would result in an increase in the ozone values through the inverse temperature sensitivity of the chemical reactions. In the lower stratosphere a positive correlation between ozone and temperature tends to exist through the dynamics. Ozone-rich air moving downward undergoes an increase in temperature through adiabatic compression and vice-versa. That the temperature trends indicate no apparent variation with latitude suggests a nondynamic cause.

Miller, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS1986

A statistical trend analysis of ozonesonde data

A detailed statistical analysis of monthly averages of ozonesond readings is performed to assess trends in ozone in the troposphere and the lower to midstratosphere. Regression time series models, which include seasonal and trend factors, are estimated for 13 stations located mainly in the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. At each station, trend estimates are calculated for 14 'fractional' Umkehr layers covering the altitude range from 0 to 33 km. For the 1970-1982 period, the main findings indicate an overall negative trend in ozonesonde data in the lower stratosphere (15-21 km) of about -0.5 percent per year, and some evidence of a positive trend in the troposphere (0-5 km) of about 0.8 percent per year. An in-depth sensitivity study of the trend estimates is performed with respect to various correction procedures used to normalize ozonesonde readings to Dobson total ozone measurements. The main results indicate that the negative trend findings in the 15- to 21-km altitude region are robust to the normalization procedures considered.

Tiao, G. C.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Analysis of upper stratospheric Umkehr ozone profile data for trends and the effects of stratospheric aerosols

The effect of stratospheric aerosols on Umkehr estimates of long-term ozone depletion associated with chlorofluoromethanes (CFMs) is considered in a statistical time series trend analysis. Time series models are estimated using monthly averages of Umkehr measurements made over the last 15 to 20 years. The time series regression models incorporate seasonal, trend and noise factors and an additional factor to account for the effects of atmospheric aerosols on the Umkehr measurements. The analysis indicates a statistically significant relation with atmospheric aerosol transmission in the Umkehr layers and implies that the relation is an important factor in any time series trend analysis of Umkehr data. Taking this relation into account, statistically significant negative trends were found in the Upper Umkehr layers. It is pointed out that upper stratospheric ozone could be sensitive to long-term solar variability as well as other possible influences in addition to CFM-induced effects, and therefore the cause or causes of the estimated trend cannot be unambiguously estimated using current Umkehr data.

Reinsel, G. C.↗