Commercialization of On-Line GPS Seismic Hazard Monitoring - Model for Corporate and Educational Outreach
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Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Tralli, David M..
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The potential of space-based geodetic measurement of crustal deformation in the context of seismology is explored. The achievements of seismological source theory and data analyses, mechanical modeling of fault zone behavior, and advances in space-based geodesy are reviewed, with emphasis on realizable contributions of space-based geodetic measurements specifically to seismology. The fundamental relationships between crustal deformation associated with an earthquake and the geodetically observable data are summarized. The response and spatial and temporal resolution of the geodetic data necessary to understand deformation at various phases of the earthquake cycle is stressed. The use of VLBI, SLR, and GPS measurements for studying global geodynamics properties that can be investigated to some extent with seismic data is discussed. The potential contributions of continuously operating strain monitoring networks and globally distributed geodetic observatories to existing worldwide modern digital seismographic networks are evaluated in reference to mutually addressable problems in seismology, geophysics, and tectonics.
Kalman filter estimates of zenith nondispersive atmospheric path delays at Westford, Massachusetts, Fort Davis, Texas, and Mojave, California, were obtained from independent analyses of data collected during January and February 1988 using the GPS and VLBI. The apparent accuracy of the path delays is inferred by examining the estimates and covariances from both sets of data. The ability of the geodetic data to resolve zenith path delay fluctuations is determined by comparing further the GPS Kalman filter estimates with corresponding wet path delays derived from water vapor radiometric data available at Mojave over two 8-hour data spans within the comparison period. GPS and VLBI zenith path delay estimates agree well within one standard deviation formal uncertainties (from 10-20 mm for GPS and 3-15 mm for VLBI) in four out of the five possible comparisons, with maximum differences of 5 and 21 mm over 8- to 12-hour data spans.
The shallow seismicity of Mars has been estimated by measurement of the total slip on faults visible on the surface of the planet throughout geologic time. Seismicity was calibrated with estimates based on surface structures on the moon and measured lunar seismicity that includes the entire seismogenic lithosphere. Results indicate that Mars is seismically active today, with a sufficient number of detectable marsquakes to allow seismic investigations of its interior.
A simple dislocation model is used to evaluate the variation of seismic slip in the Gulf of California and the possible effect on geodetic measurements of Pacific-North American plate motion by means of an estimation of the surface displacements due to typical transform events in the gulf. The results of this numerical calculation suggest that if a large transform event (about 1.5 x 10 exp 26 dyne cm) were to occur within 100 to 200 km of a geodetic baseline, the relative distance measurements could be affected by up to 15 mm. This is marginally at the error level of a few millimeters plus 2 parts in 10 exp 8 of baseline length for GOMEX measurements, which thus are sensitive only to the far-field displacement along the plate boundary.
Temporal power spectral density models of noise in continuous crustal deformation measurements obtained with the Global Positioning System (GPS) and high-quality strainmeters are compared. The crossover frequency at which GPS measurement noise is less than that of strainmeters is determined. Assuming GPS precision of 0.1 to 1 cm in horizontal components for baselines up to 100 km in length, local deformation monitoring with GPS may be preferable to strainmeters for observations of short-term deformation in under 6 months of continuous (at least daily) measurements. Short-period tropospheric path delays and multipath effects, which may obscure GPS-determined strain signals in local network measurements, also are discussed.
Water vapor radiometric and surface meteorological measurements taken during three GPS geodetic experiments are used to calculate process noise levels for random walk and first-order Gauss-Markov temporal models of tropospheric path delays. Entire wet and combined wet and dry zenith delays at each network site are estimated simultaneously with the geodetic parameters without prior calibration. The path delays and corresponding baseline estimates are compared to those obtained with calibrated data and stochastic residual delays. In this manner, the marginal utility of a priori tropospheric calibration is assessed given the ability to estimate the path delays directly using only the GPS data. Estimation of total zenith path delays with appropriate random walk or Gauss-Markov models yields baseline repeatabilities of a few parts in 100 million. Results suggest that GPS data alone have sufficient strength to resolve centimeter-level zenith path delay fluctuations over periods of a few minutes.
Surface Meteorological (SM) and Water Vapor Radiometer (WVR) measurements are used to provide an independent means of calibrating the GPS signal for the wet tropospheric path delay in a study of geodetic baseline measurements in the Gulf of California using GPS in which high tropospheric water vapor content yielded wet path delays in excess of 20 cm at zenith. Residual wet delays at zenith are estimated as constants and as first-order exponentially correlated stochastic processes. Calibration with WVR data is found to yield the best repeatabilities, with improved results possible if combined carrier phase and pseudorange data are used. Although SM measurements can introduce significant errors in baseline solutions if used with a simple atmospheric model and estimation of residual zenith delays as constants, SM calibration and stochastic estimation for residual zenith wet delays may be adequate for precise estimation of GPS baselines. For dry locations, WVRs may not be required to accurately model tropospheric effects on GPS baselines.
GPS geodetic measurements of 350-650 km baselines across the Pacific-North America plate boundary in the Gulf of California are presented. The analysis employs a four-station U.S. fiducial network and combined carrier phase and pseudorange data. Water vapor radiometer data at the Gulf sites are used to calibrate the GPS signal for wet tropospheric path delays. Residual tropospheric delays are modeled as first-order exponentially correlated stochastic processes. The measurement precision for horizontal components is a few parts in 10 to the 8th or better.