Engineering topics

Trotta, Roberto

Publications and source records attributed to Trotta, Roberto.

2 records

DOE OSTI2024

Dark Matter halo parameters from overheated exoplanets via Bayesian hierarchical inference

Dark Matter (DM) can become captured, deposit annihilation energy, and hence increase the heat flow in exoplanets and brown dwarfs. Detecting such a DM-induced heating in a population of exoplanets in the inner kpc of the Milky Way thus provides potential sensitivity to the galactic DM halo parameters. We develop a Bayesian Hierarchical Model to investigate the feasibility of DM discovery with exoplanets and examine future prospects to recover the spatial distribution of DM in the Milky Way. We reconstruct from mock exoplanet datasets observable parameters such as exoplanet age, temperature, mass, and location, together with DM halo parameters, for representative choices of measurement uncertainty and the number of exoplanets detected. We find that detection of O(100) exoplanets in the inner Galaxy can yield quantitative information on the galactic DM density profile, under the assumption of 10% measurement uncertainty. Even as few as O(10) exoplanets can deliver meaningful sensitivities if the DM density and inner slope are sufficiently large.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simple and statistically sound recommendations for analysing physical theories

Physical theories that depend on many parameters or are tested against data from many different experiments pose unique challenges to statistical inference. Many models in particle physics, astrophysics and cosmology fall into one or both of these categories. These issues are often sidestepped with statistically unsound ad hoc methods, involving intersection of parameter intervals estimated by multiple experiments, and random or grid sampling of model parameters. Whilst these methods are easy to apply, they exhibit pathologies even in low-dimensional parameter spaces, and quickly become problematic to use and interpret in higher dimensions. In this article we give clear guidance for going beyond these procedures, suggesting where possible simple methods for performing statistically sound inference, and recommendations of readily-available software tools and standards that can assist in doing so. Our aim is to provide any physicists lacking comprehensive statistical training with recommendations for reaching correct scientific conclusions, with only a modest increase in analysis burden. Furthermore, our examples can be reproduced with the code publicly available at Zenodo.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗