Engineering topics

Vavrin, A.

Publications and source records attributed to Vavrin, A..

4 records

NASA NTRS2019

Risk of Increased Fragmentation Events Due to Low Altitude Large Constellation Spacecraft

Orbital debris experts and industry leaders are concerned about the added hazard that thousands of additional spacecraft would have on the future orbital debris environment. Large constellations proposals plan to deploy spacecraft at altitudes from 1100 km to 1300 km, where fragmentation debris can take thousands of years or longer to decay naturally, while other proposals include deploying spacecraft at station-keeping altitudes from 300 km to 600 km. Although these lower altitude spacecraft are compliant with the 25-year rule, there is still an increased risk of accidental explosions generating high velocity fragments that could damage international spacecraft assets. The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has conducted several parametric studies that examine the potential negative environmental impacts of large constellation deployments. This study addresses the lower altitude constellations and the potential risk that they impose on the future environment during mission operations. The projected future environment is generated as the average of 100 LEGEND Monte Carlo (MC) simulation runs while adjusting parameters such as average probability of explosion and operational lifetime per constellation. Results of the effect of accidental explosions of large constellation spacecraft on the environment below 600 km altitude are analyzed.

Vavrin, A.↗

NASA NTRS2019

The NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model 3.1: Development, Verification, and Validation

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has developed the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) primarily as a tool for spacecraft designers and other users to understand the long-term risk of collisions with orbital debris. The newest version, ORDEM 3.1, incorporates the latest and highest fidelity datasets available to build and validate representative orbital debris populations encompassing low Earth orbit (LEO) to geosynchronous orbit (GEO) altitudes for the years 2016-2050. ORDEM 3.1 models fluxes for object sizes > 10 μm within or transiting LEO and > 10 cm in GEO. The deterministic portion of the populations in ORDEM 3.1 is based on the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog, which provides coverage down to approximately 10 cm in LEO and 1 m in GEO. Observational datasets from radar, in situ, and optical sources provide a foundation from which the model populations are statistically extrapolated to smaller sizes and orbit regions that are not well-covered by the SSN catalog, yet may pose the greatest threat to operational spacecraft. Objects in LEO ranging from approximately 5 mm to 10 cm are modeled using observational data from ground-based radar, namely the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR – formerly known as Haystack). The LEO population smaller than approximately 3 mm in size is characterized based on a reanalysis of in situ data from impacts to the windows and radiators of the U.S. Space Transportation System orbiter vehicle, i.e., the Space Shuttle. Data from impacts on the Hubble Space Telescope are also used to validate the sub-millimeter model populations in LEO. Debris in GEO with sizes ranging from 10 cm to 1 m is modeled using optical measurement data from the Michigan Orbital DEbris Survey Telescope (MODEST). Specific, major debris-producing events, including the Fengyun-1C, Iridium 33, and Cosmos 2251 debris clouds, and unique populations, such as sodium-potassium droplets, have been re-examined and are modeled and added to the ORDEM environment separately. The debris environment greater than 1 mm is forecast using NASA’s LEO-to- GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND). Future explosions of intact objects and collisions involving objects greater than 10 cm are assessed statistically, and the NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model is used to generate fragments from these events. Fragments smaller than 10 cm are further differentiated based on material density categories, i.e., high-, medium-, and low-density, to better characterize the potential debris risk posed to spacecraft. The future projection of the sub-millimeter environment is computed using a special small-particle degradation model where small particles are created from intact spacecraft and rocket bodies. This work discusses the development, features, and capabilities of the ORDEM 3.1 model; the ne new data analyses used to build the model populations; and sample verification and validation results.

Matney, M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Development of a Model for the Small-Particle Orbital Debris Population Based on the STS Impact Record

In preparation for the release of the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) version 3.1, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) revisited how orbiting debris populations of characteristic sizes smaller than 1 cm were modeled. The primary contributor to the population of sub-centimeter debris particles is the surface deterioration or erosion of spacecraft materials exposed to the outer-space environment. Because small particulates are not directly trackable by remote sensing, the primary means of detection is via historical counts of small impact features on flown radiator and window surfaces of the U.S. Space Transportation System (STS, also known as the Space Shuttle) from 1995-2011. Historic NASA studies of high-velocity impact tests have related impact-feature size to particle mass and velocity for certain STS surfaces, so that a corresponding particle size may be inferred from each small-impact feature observed. Micro-debris populations are then estimated by modeling the path and orientation of an STS mission through a simulated debris environment, and the densities of this simulated environment are rescaled to approximate the number of observed STS impact features. Monte-Carlo methods are further employed to gauge the estimation uncertainty of the rescaled environment. A description of the chosen methodologies for estimating and adjusting the micro-debris population model, and the results, are presented.

Seago, J..↗

NASA NTRS2018

Integrating Orbital Debris Measurements and Modeling - How Observations and Laboratory Data are used to Help Make Space Operations Safer

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has been statistically surveying human-made resident space objects (RSOs) in geocentric orbits for several decades, using optical and infrared telescopes. The prime goal has been to understand the evolving population and characteristics of debris generated by RSOs. The debris population includes any non-functioning RSO that no longer serves a useful purpose. Any object that cannot be purposely maneuvered, including non-functioning satellites, rocket bodies, and any object generated by a collision, explosion, or fragmentation event, may pose a future collisional threat to active satellites. Key questions immediately surface from this knowledge: What can we do to protect our precious functioning satellites from collisions? How do we design our satellites to prevent them from being future sources of debris? And what can we do as a society to protect the environment surrounding Earth to preserve it for future generations? To begin to address these questions, and to better understand this population as well as break-up events contributing to it, NASA has developed a suite of models and experimental laboratory data to work in tandem with observational and laboratory measurements of RSOs. These models include the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM), the Standard Satellite Break-up Model (SSBM), and an evolutionary model of the environment from LEO to GEO (LEGEND). Ground-based data have been collected from the infrared telescope UKIRT (UK Infrared Telescope) in Hawaii, as well as the 1.3m Eugene Stansbery Meter Class Autonomous Telescope, ES-MCAT, historically called MCAT, on Ascension Island. MCAT will be tasked to collect GEO (Geosynchronous) survey data, scanning orbits to search for uncatalogued objects (e.g. fragmentation/break-up events (SSBM)), and targeted observations of catalogued objects for more intensive studies, e.g. when a break-up or anomalous event occurs. Laboratory experimental data includes DebriSat, a satellite impacted at ~6.9 km/s in an impact laboratory on Earth, and optical photometry from the Optical Measurements Center at NASA JSC. An integrated view will be discussed of how our telescopic observations and lab measurements interplay with models to understand the current (ORDEM) and future (LEGEND) environment, the evolution of satellite breakups (SSBM), and how this knowledge can help to promote an environment that is safer for operations.

Lederer, S. M.↗