The Impacts of Magnetogram Projection Effects on Solar Flare Forecasting
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Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Viacheslav M. Sadykov.
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Spectral lines formed at lower atmospheric layers show peculiar profiles at the "leading edge" of ribbons during solar flares. In particular, increased absorption of the BBSO/GST He I λ10830 line, as well as broad and centrally reversed profiles in the spectra of the Mg II and C II lines observed by the IRIS satellite, has been reported. In this work, we aim to understand the physical origin of such peculiar IRIS profiles, which seem to be common of many, if not all, flares. To achieve this, we quantify the spectral properties of the IRIS Mg II profiles at the ribbon leading edge during four large flares and perform a detailed comparison with a grid of radiative hydrodynamic models using the RADYN+FP code. We also studied their transition region (TR) counterparts, finding that these ribbon front locations are regions where TR emission and chromospheric evaporation are considerably weaker compared to other parts of the ribbons. Based on our comparison between the IRIS observations and modeling, our interpretation is that there are different heating regimes at play in the leading edge and the main bright part of the ribbons. More specifically, we suggest that bombardment of the chromosphere by more gradual and modest nonthermal electron energy fluxes can qualitatively explain the IRIS observations at the ribbon leading front, while stronger and more impulsive energy fluxes are required to drive chromospheric evaporation and more intense TR emission in the bright ribbon. Our results provide a possible physical origin for the peculiar behavior of the IRIS chromospheric lines in the ribbon leading edge and new constraints for the flare models.
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Understanding the solar dynamics is critical for improving our capabilities to forecast the evolution of space weather conditions. We take advantage of currently available computational capabilities to model solar dynamics from the deep interior to the corona and investigate mechanisms that may drive space weather conditions. The simulations are performed using the 3D radiative MHD code StellarBox. Comparison of synthetic spectroscopic observables obtained from numerical simulations and actual observations allows us to uncover physical processes associated with observed phenomena. To facilitate a transition from modeling short-term physical phenomena to developing a reliable forecast-oriented model, we suggest using the data assimilation approach. It allows us to cross-analyze dynamo model solutions and observations and to consider possible uncertainties and errors. In this presentation, we briefly summarize current multi-scale modeling capabilities and results and discuss ongoing developments to build a reliable physics-based forecast-oriented model of solar activity
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