Engineering topics

Vikara, Derek

Publications and source records attributed to Vikara, Derek.

32 records · Page 2

DOE OSTI2023

Overview of the Pathways to CO2 Utilization and Storage for the Intermountain West Region

The topic of the webinar focused on findings from the first phase of I-WEST initiative, specifically related to CO2 utilization and storage as one of the many potential deep decarbonization pathway available to the region. Specifically, the seminar presented topics like: an overview of CCUS technology and benefits; a highlight of a variety of CO2 storage and utilization approaches available to the region, relevant governing regulations, and technical and non-technical grand challenges associated with each option; findings from an assessment of opportunities for CCUS deployment at significant scale within the Intermountain West; and context to help listeners better understand the technical aspects of CCUS and how they interface with economic, social, and policy aspects of decarbonization applicable to the I-WEST geographic region.

Vikara, Derek↗

DOE OSTI2023

Techno-Economic Models are Instrumental in Analyzing Decarbonization Strategies

This presentations provides a high-level overview of the NETL-developed techno-economic models associated with the CO2 transport and CO2 storage components of the carbon capture and storage (CCS)/carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) value chain. It also discusses the models’ capabilities through the discussion of select modeling applications (both internal and external) and highlights current model modifications and future work. It was presented at the CCUS 2023 conference, organized and presented by the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG), and Society of Exploration Geophysicists (SEG) and held in Houston, Texas, April 25-27, 2023.

Guinan, Allison↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Study of Commercial-Scale CO2 Storage Options in Single and Stacked Saline Formations in Managing Reservoir Pressure Buildup

Presentation at American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) Carbon, Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) held in Houston, Texas, April 25–27, 2023. The presentation emphasizes the importance of coordination among CO2 storage projects as CCUS deployment needs to be scaled up. The presentation focuses on findings from reservoir simulation studies in which different configurations of injection zones (a single saline formation and a stacked sequence of saline formations) are targeted for CO2 storage to accommodate the amplified storage volume needed while managing reservoir pressure buildup and interference induced by multi-well injection operations.

Wijaya, Nur↗

DOE OSTI2023

Pathways to CO2 Utilization and Storage for the Intermountain West

The presentation, delivered at American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG) Carbon, Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) held in Houston, Texas, April 25–27, 2023, provides a detailed perspective on CO2 utilization and storage as a deep decarbonization pathway as it relates to states that make up the Intermountain West (I-WEST) region of the U.S. Content within shows findings from evaluation of the opportunity and potential value delivery that exists for CCUS to deploy at significant scale in the I-WEST region considering the region’s prominent enabling factors. This work is part of a larger initiative involving the development of a regional, stakeholder-informed technology “roadmap” for a sustainable and equitable transition to carbon neutral in the I-WEST.

Vikara, Derek↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of the economic implications of varied pressure drawdown strategies generated using a real-time, rapid predictive, multi-fidelity model for unconventional oil and gas wells

Experience has suggested that pressure maintenance in hydraulically fractured reservoirs via lower, more sustained production drawdowns may offer improved cumulative recovery and overall resource extraction efficiency compared to more rapid drawdown approaches aimed at generating high initial production. However, given the inherent variability of oil and natural gas markets, operators pursue production strategies that maximize profitability over resource extraction efficiency. This study focuses on evaluating the implications of contrasting pressure drawdown strategies on the long-term production and resulting economics for a real, producing unconventional gas well in the Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian Basin using a techno-economic analysis approach. Our research combines elements of well-specific horizontal well design, production forecasting, equipment sizing and capital cost estimation, operating cost estimation, and revenue and tax calculations. Gas production forecast outlook scenarios were generated under varying pressure drawdowns using two approaches: 1) a novel physics-informed machine learning workflow and 2) traditional reservoir simulation. A discounted cash flow model was used to evaluate the resulting economic implications for each drawdown scenario—generating output for exploring the coupled effect of factors like the timing and volume of gas production, prevailing economic and market conditions for natural gas, and overall estimated ultimate recovery on profitability metrics such as internal rate of return and net present value. Results show that there is potential to maximize the cumulative gas produced in the specific case study well by employing a lower pressure drawdown. Conversely, the greatest profitability is achieved using rapid drawdown as signified by a small, specific subset of our outlook scenarios. On an averaging basis, we find that the combinations of highest cumulative producing and most profitable scenarios occur under lower drawdowns with long (>40 years) producing timeframes, but require higher relative gas price and lower discounting considerations. Further, the machine learning predictive outlooking capability proved effective for enabling rapid generation of a multitude of scenario forecasts. As a result, a variety of prominent example cases could be generated to strike the balance of greater productivity and economic return given their associated producing features and economic conditions when compared to similar producing scenarios—critical insight that offers improved decision support for unconventional oil and gas operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Production Implications of Pressure Maintenance in Unconventional Oil and Gas Wells using a Machine Learning Modeling Approach: Case Study in the Permian Basin

This study implements the proprietary machine learning-based model (model) developed under the 2022 study titled “Evaluating the Impact of Proprietary Oil & Gas Data on Machine Learning Model Performance Using a Quasi-Experimental Analytical Approach” for forecasting unconventional oil and gas production using well data from the Permian Basin. The model, developed using an exclusive dataset that includes time series production data from an operator in the Permian Basin, is designed to jointly predict daily oil, gas, and water production for horizontal wells as a function of bottomhole pressure drawdown, spatial placement across the study domain, and well-completion attributes. In this study, the model was explicitly applied to explore its utility to evaluate the impact of varying drawdown strategies on the production forecast of a well in the Permian Basin dataset. Managing pressure drawdown has been identified as a way to improve estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) from unconventional shale wells due to the stress-dependent nature of fractures in shale reservoirs. Research has shown that applying a lower pressure drawdown helps to maintain the reservoir conductivity, resulting in higher productivity over the life of a well. Historic bottomhole pressure data from the well over time was used as a benchmark from which to set more and less aggressive pressure decline rates as bounding modeling cases. All pressure decline rates/strategies were forecasted over 5 years, and the model was used to generate oil, water, and gas prediction over the same timeframe. This report presents the results from the production forecast and discusses potential operational and economic implications, with contrasting perspectives between well productivity and profitability given typical oil and gas economics and the volatility in the oil and gas market.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2022

FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM): Production Data for UShWEM

The Production Data for UShWEM.xlsx is an Excel file that is formatted and organized similarly to the Production Streams sheet of the FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM). The purpose of this file is to allow the user to import completion design and time-series production data for hundreds of wells into the UShWEM easily and quickly, and have their well data saved safely in an external location. For instructions on how to use the Production Data for UShWEM.xlsx file, see section 2.3 of the FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model: User’s Manual.

Sheriff, Alana↗

DOE OSTI2022

FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM)

FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM) is an Excel-based model that evaluates the economics of an unconventional shale well on a per-well and per-pad basis. The model calculates the net cash flow, internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), payout month and year, and breakeven price (for either oil- or gas-wells). The model can be used to estimate the economics of a well or pad over its lifetime (development through site reclamation) based on (1) the capital and operating costs associated with well/pad development and operations, (2) the revenue associated with oil, gas, and condensate production streams, and (3) accounting for relevant tax policies and asset depreciation applicable for oil and gas operations. The main input for the model is the completion design and production data. Key financial considerations in the model include oil, gas, and condensate market prices, tax-related settings, royalty rates, the discount rate, minimum economic hurdle (IRR) [if performing break-even analysis], and project contingency. The financial consideration can be adjusted to reflect the level of granularity the user requires as input when calculating the economics for a well or pad development. In addition, the model affords users the option to provide their user inputs for all cost categories considered. As a result, the model can be used to generate a multitude of scenario cases for sensitivity analysis of the various financial considerations, as well as production and cost profiles. To make this seamless, the model has the capability for key economic outputs to be exported in large batches through macros-enabled functions on its “Model Output Summary” and “Multi-Well Cost Analysis. The spreadsheet model includes macros and user-defined functions, so the user must enable Excel’s macro capability for the model to function correctly.

Sheriff, Alana↗

DOE OSTI2022

Exploratory Analysis of Offshore CO 2 Storage Pilot Project in the Gulf of Mexico: Geologic, Infrastructure, and Cost Considerations

This analysis employs a high-level exploratory analytical approach to quantify various considerations needed for a potential CCS pilot project in the GOM, most notably the cost magnitude to develop an offshore pilot project. The scope of this analysis focuses on CO 2 storage in saline formations presented in two specific scenarios: parts of GOM Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) federal waters and Texas state waters.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Supplementary Data for "Evaluation of the Economic Implications of Varied Pressure Drawdown Strategies Generated Using a Real-time, Rapid Predictive, Multi-fidelity Model for Unconventional Oil and Gas Wells" by Bello, K., Vikara, D., Sheriff, A., Viswanathan, H., Carr, T., Sweeney, M., O'Malley, D., Marquis, M., Vactor, R.T., and Cunha, L.

The Bello et al. study evaluates the impact of contrasting pressure drawdown on gas productivity and the resulting economics of a well in the Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian Basin. This research applies a techno-economic analysis approach to help identify potential ways pressure management strategies can be used to improve cumulative recovery of hydraulically fractured horizontal wells while maintaining project profitability. Gas production forecast outlook scenarios of the Marcellus Shale Energy and Environment Laboratory Laboratory's MIP-3H well were generated under varying pressure drawdowns using two approaches: 1) a novel physics-informed machine learning (PIML) workflow and 2) via traditional reservoir simulation in Computer Modeling Group’s (CMG) GEM Compositional & Unconventional Simulator. Cash flow and other economic metrics of interest were compiled on the production outlook using the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM).The sheets within this Microsoft ExcelTM workbook provide the economic metric outputs for the baseline condition and the one-at-a-time (OAT) sensitivity analysis of UShWEM's input parameters for each of the production scenarios evaluated.

Fracture Network Model↗

DOE OSTI2022

Intermountain West Energy Sustainability & Transitions Initiative: CO2 Transport and Geologic Storage Modeling Results

These resources provide the full set of cost modeling results and methods as part of the I-WEST Roadmap Initiative that were used to compile figures as part of the "Pathways to CO2 Utilization and Storage for the Intermountain West Region" chapter. The data were generated from a series of National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) cost models and relate to carbon dioxide (CO2) transport costs, CO2 enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) economics, and saline storage economics. These models were used to analyze various business cases given changes in technical and financial assumptions for the I-WEST region as a means to explore how these assumptions influence CO2 transport and storage costs, as well as to evaluate the effect of changing oil prices on the viability of CO2-EOR and the mass of CO2 stored via CO2-EOR. The accompanying report titled "Intermountain West Energy Sustainability & Transitions Initiative: CO2 Transport and Geologic Storage Modeling Results" provides a detailed overview on the models, assumptions, and parameters used in the modeling, as well as example results..

CO2 EOR costs,CO2 Storage Costs,CO2 transportation↗

DOE OSTI2022

Intermountain West Energy Sustainability & Transitions Initiative: CO 2 Transport and Geologic Storage Modeling Results

This report and its associated Excel spreadsheet file provide the results of technoeconomic modeling of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) pipeline transport modeling, CO 2 storage in deep saline subsurface formations, and CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). This report provides the methodology, describes the models and summarizes results for the three aspects of the analysis done for the Intermountain West Energy Sustainability and Transition (I-WEST) Initiative.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM): Description and User’s Manual

FECM/NETL Unconventional Shale Well Economic Model (UShWEM) is an Excel-based model that evaluates the economics of an unconventional shale well on a per-well and per-pad basis. This document serves as the user’s manual for the model with descriptions of the procedures the user must follow to run the model. This document also describes the capabilities of the model and provides the equations that are used by the model to calculate technical quantities and key model outputs including net cash flow, internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), payout month and year, and breakeven price (for either oil- or gas-wells).

Sheriff, Alana↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the Impacts of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 45Q Tax Credit on CCS Network Costs

This study evaluates the impact of the Bipartisan Budget Act of 2018 (BBA)-amended 45Q tax credit on integrated carbon capture and storage (CCS) networks for source types and geologic storage reservoirs common to the north-central U.S. The integrated CCS networks evaluated were chosen to closely replicate those in the forthcoming National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) central U.S. CCS cost options study’s Northwest CCS Network Regional Impact Area (Northwest Impact Area).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗