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Voisin, Nathalie (ORCID:000000026848449X)

Publications and source records attributed to Voisin, Nathalie (ORCID:000000026848449X).

12 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Reservoir Drought Resilience Under Future Warming Scenarios: Regional Disparities Across Heavily Regulated US Basins

Droughts across the U.S. have imposed substantial challenges to the management of water resources. Reservoir drought, one type of hydrological drought, is characterized by abnormally low reservoir storage levels, reflecting combined impacts of natural water shortages and water management practices. We investigate how reservoir drought signatures, particularly onset, severity, duration, recovery and frequency, may shift under rising temperatures, and how these shifts vary by reservoir typology and degree of regulation. By coupling atmosphere-land-river models with reservoir operations at ~12-km resolution, we simulated reservoir storage and characterized reservoir droughts across five heavily regulated U.S. basins. Our findings reveal significant regional and functional disparities in reservoir drought resilience under the scenario of rising temperatures. Reservoirs in the Texas-Gulf region are projected to become more resilient, while systems in the Upper Colorado and South Atlantic-Gulf regions face increased risk due to prolonged drought durations and slower recovery. With respect to primary function, reservoirs used for irrigation and hydropower, particularly those with smaller storage capacity and lower degrees of regulation, are most susceptible to future drought stress. These results are valuable in understanding water availability in highly regulated environments, and the influence of hydrometeorological conditions on storage dynamics. Overall, this study provides the first of its kind benchmark for reservoir droughts at a continental scale to support evolving multi-sectoral drought mitigation efforts. Future research is needed to link reservoir drought conditions to actual supply shortages across competing water uses, while leveraging existing adaptive management strategies and coordinated reservoir operations.

reservoir↗
DOE OSTI2026

Alaska Observed Hydropower Generation

This dataset contains compiled observed hydropower generation for hydropower plants in Alaska. Data have been compiled from data provided to the Energy Information Administration by asset owners, data contained in annual reports produced by the Institute of Social and Economic Research at the University of Alaska Anchorage (Alaska Electric Power Statistics and Alaska Energy Statistics) and data provided to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission by asset owners. This dataset provides available generation data from all sources in monthly and annual files, with quality flags, and generation data identifying the highest quality source in monthly and annual files.

hydropower datasets↗
DOE OSTI2024

MSD CoP Webinar: Applied Science for Decision-Making at the Water-Energy Nexus

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: The energy transition is a game-changer across multiple sectors, requiring researchers and practitioners to re-evaluate the evolving connections between climate, water, and power systems, as well as the associated co-management of resources and decision-making. In anticipation of new technologies, policies, business models, and other solutions, applied science for decision-making at the climate-water-energy nexus is needed to support transitions with the expected climate resilience, maintained and enhanced energy security, thriving economies, and equity considerations. Through panelists' applied research and operational experience, the webinar will provide lesson-learnt in how to increase the readiness of water-energy research and become actionable in the context of energy transitions. A number of themes will be discussed, including the connection between growing computational resources and complexity of models, and the implications on the intended users, the actual actionable products, the availability of data for validation of the models, uncertainty characterization and decision-making under uncertainty, and the communication of the novelty to decision-makers and the public. Presenters : David McCollum (Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Co-Chair), and Gokul Iyer (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Co-Chair), Curt Jawdy (Tennessee Valley Authority), Nathalie Voisin (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory), and Andrew D. Jones (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory) Moderator: Pat M. Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team) This webinar was held on: April 30, 2024 from 1-2 PM ET

Energy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Representing farmer irrigated crop area adaptation in a large-scale hydrological model

Abstract. Large-scale hydrological models (LHMs) are commonly used for regional and global assessment of future water shortage outcomes under climate and socioeconomic scenarios. The irrigation of croplands, which accounts for the lion's share of human water consumption, is critical in understanding these water shortage trajectories. Despite irrigation's defining role, LHM frameworks typically impose trajectories of land use that underlie irrigation demand, neglecting potential dynamic feedbacks in the form of human instigation of and subsequent adaptation to water shortages via irrigated crop area changes. We extend an LHM, MOSART-WM, with adaptive farmer agents, applying the model to the continental United States to explore water shortage outcomes that emerge from the interplay between hydrologic-driven surface water availability, reservoir management, and farmer irrigated crop area adaptation. The extended modeling framework is used to conduct a hypothetical computational experiment comparing differences between a model run with and without the incorporation of adaptive farmer agents. These comparative simulations reveal that accounting for farmer adaptation via irrigated crop area changes substantially alters modeled water shortage outcomes, with US-wide annual water shortages being reduced by as much as 42 % when comparing adaptive and non-adaptive versions of the model forced with US climatology from the period 1950–2009.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impacts of climate change on subannual hydropower generation: a multi-model assessment of the United States federal hydropower plant

Abstract Hydropower is a low-carbon emission renewable energy source that provides competitive and flexible electricity generation and is essential to the evolving power grid in the context of decarbonization. Assessing hydropower availability in a changing climate is technically challenging because there is a lack of consensus in the modeling representation of key dynamics across scales and processes. Focusing on 132 US federal hydropower plants, in this study we evaluate the compounded impact of climate and reservoir-hydropower models’ structural uncertainties on monthly hydropower projections. In particular, instead of relying on one single regression-based hydropower model, we introduce another conceptual reservoir operations-hydropower model in the assessment framework. This multi-model assessment approach allows us to partition uncertainties associated with both climate and hydropower models for better clarity. Results suggest that while at least 70% of the uncertainties at the annual scale and 50% at the seasonal scale can be attributed to the choice of climate models, up to 50% of seasonal variability can be attributed to the choice of hydropower models, particularly in regions over the western US where the reservoir storage is substantial. The analysis identifies regions where multi-model assessments are needed and presents a novel approach to partition uncertainties in hydropower projections. Another outcome includes an updated evaluation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)-based federal hydropower projection, at the monthly scale and with a larger ensemble, which can provide a baseline for understanding future assessments based on CMIP6 and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Revised monthly energy generation estimates for 1,500 hydroelectric power plants in the United States

Abstract The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) conducts a regular survey (form EIA-923) to collect annual and monthly net generation for more than ten thousand U.S. power plants. Approximately 90% of the ~1,500 hydroelectric plants included in this data release are surveyed at annual resolution only and thus lack actual observations of monthly generation. For each of these plants, EIA imputes monthly generation values using the combined monthly generating pattern of other hydropower plants within the corresponding census division. The imputation method neglects local hydrology and reservoir operations, rendering the monthly data unsuitable for various research applications. Here we present an alternative approach to disaggregate each unobserved plant’s reported annual generation using proxies of monthly generation—namely historical monthly reservoir releases and average river discharge rates recorded downstream of each dam. Evaluation of the new dataset demonstrates substantial and robust improvement over the current imputation method, particularly if reservoir release data are available. The new dataset—named RectifHyd—provides an alternative to EIA-923 for U.S. scale, plant-level, monthly hydropower net generation (2001–2020). RectifHyd may be used to support power system studies or analyze within-year hydropower generation behavior at various spatial scales.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulation of hydropower at subcontinental to global scales: a state-of-the-art review

Abstract Hydroelectric power is playing a new and often expanded role in the world’s major power grids, offering low carbon generating capacity in industrializing, dam-building economies while providing reserve and flexibility to co-manage fledgling wind and solar resources in high income countries. Driven by river flows, conventional hydropower is exposed to the vagaries of weather and climate, motivating drought and climate change hydropower impact studies at large spatial scales. Here we review methods of climate-driven hydropower simulation at large spatial scales, specifically multi-basin regions to global. We identify four types of approach based on complexity of tools and richness of data applied to the problem. Since the earliest attempts to model climate-driven hydropower at continental scale almost two decades ago, the field has transitioned from one of scientific curiosity to practical application, with studies increasingly motivated by the need to inform power grid expansion planning and operation. As the hydrological and water management models used in large-scale hydropower studies become more sophisticated, new opportunities will emerge to study the impacts of changing hydropower on power system reliability and performance at large power grid scale. To grasp these opportunities, the water resources community must continue to enhance data and models for representing river flows and anthropogenic water use and management at subcontinental to global scales.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

ResOpsUS, a dataset of historical reservoir operations in the contiguous United States

Abstract There are over 52,000 dams in the contiguous US ranging from 0.5 to 243 meters high that collectively hold 600,000 million cubic meters of water. These structures have dramatically affected the river dynamics of every major watershed in the country. While there are national datasets that document dam attributes, there is no national dataset of reservoir operations. Here we present a dataset of historical reservoir inflows, outflows and changes in storage for 679 major reservoirs across the US, called ResOpsUS. All of the data are provided at a daily temporal resolution. Temporal coverage varies by reservoir depending on construction date and digital data availability. Overall, the data spans from 1930 to 2020, although the best coverage is for the most recent years, particularly 1980 to 2020. The reservoirs included in our dataset cover more than half of the total storage of large reservoirs in the US (defined as reservoirs with storage greater 0.1 km 3 ). We document the assembly process of this dataset as well as its contents. Historical operations are also compared to static reservoir attribute datasets for validation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Inferred inflow forecast horizons guiding reservoir release decisions across the United States

Abstract. Medium- to long-range forecasts often guide reservoir release decisions to support water management objectives, including mitigating flood and drought risks. While there is a burgeoning field of science targeted at improving forecast products and associated decision support models, data describing how and when forecasts are applied in practice remain undeveloped. This lack of knowledge may prevent hydrological modelers from developing accurate reservoir release schemes for large-scale, distributed hydrology models that are increasingly used to assess the vulnerabilities of large regions to hydrological stress. We address this issue by estimating seasonally varying, regulated inflow forecast horizons used in the operations of more than 300 dams throughout the conterminous United States (CONUS). For each dam, we take actual forward observed inflows (perfect foresight) as a proxy for forecasted flows available to the operator and then identify for each week of the year the forward horizon that best explains the release decisions taken. Resulting “horizon curves” specify for each dam the inferred inflow forecast horizon as a function of the week of the water year. These curves are analyzed for strength of evidence for contribution of medium- to long-range forecasts in decision making. We use random forest classification to estimate that approximately 80 % of large dams and reservoirs in the US (1553±50 out of 1927 dams with at least 10 Mm3 storage capacity) adopt medium- to long-range inflow forecasts to inform release decisions during at least part of the water year. Long-range forecast horizons (more than 6 weeks ahead) are detected in the operations of reservoirs located in high-elevation regions of the western US, where snowpack information likely guides the release. A simulation exercise conducted on four key western US reservoirs indicates that forecast-informed models of reservoir operations may outperform models that neglect the horizon curve – including during flood and drought conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗