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Waggoner, Bruce

Publications and source records attributed to Waggoner, Bruce.

The Voyagers: Risky Business Beyond the Heliopause

Both 43 year old Voyager spacecraft have entered interstellar space while continuing to return exciting and unique scientific data. While it is possible that both spacecraft might operate until 2030, many components are presenting problems just as resource margins are eroding to critical levels. The flight team is managing risks to almost every significant sub-system on the vehicles and many of these risks are interconnected. This paper offers a summary of the major issues encounter by the flight team and how each problem is being managed.

Waggoner, Bruce

Data Analysis & Statistical Methods for Command File Errors

This paper explains current work on modeling for managing the risk of command file errors. It is focused on analyzing actual data from a JPL spaceflight mission to build models for evaluating and predicting error rates as a function of several key variables. We constructed a rich dataset by considering the number of errors, the number of files radiated, including the number commands and blocks in each file, as well as subjective estimates of workload and operational novelty. We have assessed these data using different curve fitting and distribution fitting techniques, such as multiple regression analysis, and maximum likelihood estimation to see how much of the variability in the error rates can be explained with these. We have also used goodness of fit testing strategies and principal component analysis to further assess our data. Finally, we constructed a model of expected error rates based on the what these statistics bore out as critical drivers to the error rate. This model allows project management to evaluate the error rate against a theoretically expected rate as well as anticipate future error rates.

Correlation Analysis

Modeling to Improve the Risk Reduction Process for Command File Errors

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory has learned that even innocuous errors in the spacecraft command process can have significantly detrimental effects on a space mission. Consequently, such Command File Errors (CFE), regardless of their effect on the spacecraft, are treated as significant events for which a root cause is identified and corrected. A CFE during space mission operations is often the symptom of imbalance or inadequacy within the system that encompasses the hardware and software used for command generation as well as the human experts and processes involved in this endeavor. As we move into an era of increased collaboration with other NASA centers and commercial partners, these systems become more and more complex. Consequently, the ability to thoroughly model and analyze CFEs formally in order to reduce the risk they pose is increasingly important. In this paper, we summarize the results of applying modeling techniques previously developed to the DAWN flight project. The original models were built with the input of subject matter experts from several flight projects. We have now customized these models to address specific questions for the DAWN flight project and formulating use cases to address their unique mission needs. The goal of this effort is to enhance the project's ability to meet commanding reliability requirements for operations and to assist them in managing their Command File Errors.

spacecraft

Program for Editing Spacecraft Command Sequences

Sequence Translator, Editor, and Expander Resource (STEER) is a computer program that facilitates construction of sequences and blocks of sequences (hereafter denoted generally as sequence products) for commanding a spacecraft. STEER also provides mechanisms for translating among various sequence product types and quickly expanding activities of a given sequence in chronological order for review and analysis of the sequence. To date, construction of sequence products has generally been done by use of such clumsy mechanisms as text-editor programs, translating among sequence product types has been challenging, and expanding sequences to time-ordered lists has involved arduous processes of converting sequence products to "real" sequences and running them through Class-A software (defined, loosely, as flight and ground software critical to a spacecraft mission). Also, heretofore, generating sequence products in standard formats has been troublesome because precise formatting and syntax are required. STEER alleviates these issues by providing a graphical user interface containing intuitive fields in which the user can enter the necessary information. The STEER expansion function provides a "quick and dirty" means of seeing how a sequence and sequence block would expand into a chronological list, without need to use of Class-A software.

Gladden, Roy

Lessons Learned from Coordinating Relay Activities at Mars

The Mission Management Office at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory was tasked with coordinating the relay of data between multiple spacecraft at Mars in support of the Mars Exploration Rover Missions in early 2004. The confluence of three orbiters (Mars Global Surveyor, Mars Odyssey, and Mars Express), two rovers (Spirit and Opportunity), and one lander (Beagle 2) has provided a challenging operational scenario that required careful coordination between missions to provide the necessary support and to avoid potential interference during simultaneous relay sessions. As these coordination efforts progressed, several important lessons were learned that should be applied to future Mars relay activities.

coordination