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Waliser, Duane E.

Publications and source records attributed to Waliser, Duane E..

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing sensitivities of climate model weighting to multiple methods, variables, and domains in the south-central United States

Given the increasing use of climate projections and multi-model ensemble weighting for a diverse array of applications, this project assesses the sensitivities of climate model weighting strategies and their resulting ensemble means to multiple components, such as the weighting schemes, climate variables, or spatial domains of interest. The purpose of this study is to assess the sensitivities associated with multi-model weighting strategies. The analysis makes use of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and their statistically downscaled counterparts created with the localized constructed analogs (LOCA) method. This work focuses on historical and projected future mean precipitation and daily high temperatures of the south-central United States. Results suggest that the model weights and the corresponding weighted model means can be sensitive to the weighting strategy that is applied. For instance, when estimating model weights based on Louisiana precipitation, the weighted projections show a wetter and cooler south-central domain in the future compared to other weighting strategies. Alternatively, for example, when estimating model weights based on New Mexico temperature, the weighted projections show a drier and warmer south-central domain in the future. However, when considering the entire south-central domain in estimating the model weights, the weighted future projections show a compromise in the precipitation and temperature estimates. As for uncertainty, our matrix of results provided a more certain picture of future climate compared to the spread in the original model ensemble. If future impact assessments utilize weighting strategies, then our findings suggest that how the specific weighting strategy is used with climate projections may depend on the needs of an impact assessment or adaptation plan.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advances in the Application and Utility of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions

The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive time scale, encompassing lead times ranging from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this time scale provide opportunities for enhanced application-focused capabilities to complement existing weather and climate services and products. There is, however, a “knowledge–value” gap, where a lack of evidence and awareness of the potential socioeconomic benefits of S2S forecasts limits their wider uptake. To address this gap, here we present the first global community effort at summarizing relevant applications of S2S forecasts to guide further decision-making and support the continued development of S2S forecasts and related services. Focusing on 12 sectoral case studies spanning public health, agriculture, water resource management, renewable energy and utilities, and emergency management and response, we draw on recent advancements to explore their application and utility. These case studies mark a significant step forward in moving from potential to actual S2S forecasting applications. We show that by placing user needs at the forefront of S2S forecast development—demonstrating both skill and utility across sectors—this dialogue can be used to help promote and accelerate the awareness, value, and cogeneration of S2S forecasts. We also highlight that while S2S forecasts are increasingly gaining interest among users, incorporating probabilistic S2S forecasts into existing decision-making operations is not trivial. Nevertheless, S2S forecasting represents a significant opportunity to generate useful, usable, and actionable forecast applications for and with users that will increasingly unlock the potential of this forecasting time scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Atmospheric River Lifecycle Responses to the Madden‐Julian Oscillation

Abstract We investigate how the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO), the dominant mode of tropical subseasonal variability, modulates the lifecycle of cool‐season North Pacific atmospheric rivers (ARs). When the enhanced (suppressed) convection center is located over the Indian Ocean (western Pacific), more AR events originate over eastern Asia and with fewer over the subtropical northern Pacific. When the enhanced (suppressed) convection is over the western Pacific (Indian Ocean), the opposite changes occur, with more AR events originate over the subtropical northern Pacific and fewer over eastern Asia. Dynamical processes involving anomalous MJO wind and seasonal mean moisture are found to be the dominant factors impacting these variations in AR origins. The MJO‐related anomalous geopotential height patterns are also shown to modulate the propagation of the AR events. These MJO–AR lifecycle relationships are further supported by model simulations.

Zhou, Yang↗
NASA NTRS2013

Tropical Atlantic Dust and Smoke Aerosol Variations Related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation in MODIS and MISR Observations

In this study, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) fine mode fraction and Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) nonspherical fraction data are used to derive dust and smoke aerosol optical thickness (T(sub dust) and T(sub smoke)) over the tropical Atlantic in a complementary way: due to its wider swath, MODIS has 3-4 times greater sampling than MISR, but MISR dust discrimination is based on particle shape retrievals, whereas an empirical scheme is used for MODIS. MODIS and MISR show very similar dust and smoke winter climatologies. T(sub dust) is the dominant aerosol component over the tropical Atlantic, accounting for 40-70 percent of the total aerosol optical thickness (AOT), whereas T(sub smoke) is significantly smaller than T(sub dust). The consistency and high correlation between these climatologies and their daily variations lends confidence to their use for investigating the relative dust and smoke contributions to the total AOT variation associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The temporal evolution and spatial patterns of the τdus anomalies associated with the MJO are consistent between MODIS and MISR: the magnitude of MJO-realted T(sub dust) anomalies is comparable to or even larger than that of the total T, while the T(sub smoke) anomaly represents about 15 percent compared to the total, which is quite different from their relative magnitudes to the total T on the climatological time scale. This suggests that dust and smoke are not influenced by the MJO in the same way. Based on correlation analysis, dust is strongly influenced by the MJO-modulated trade wind and precipitation anomalies, and can last as long as one MJO phase, whereas smoke is less affected.

Madden-Julian Oscillation↗
NASA NTRS2012

Simulation of the Intraseasonal Variability over the Eastern Pacific ITCZ in Climate Models

During boreal summer, convective activity over the eastern Pacific (EPAC) inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) exhibits vigorous intraseasonal variability (ISV). Previous observational studies identified two dominant ISV modes over the EPAC, i.e., a 40-day mode and a quasi-biweekly mode (QBM). The 40-day ISV mode is generally considered a local expression of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. However, in addition to the eastward propagation, northward propagation of the 40-day mode is also evident. The QBM mode bears a smaller spatial scale than the 40-day mode, and is largely characterized by northward propagation. While the ISV over the EPAC exerts significant influences on regional climate/weather systems, investigation of contemporary model capabilities in representing these ISV modes over the EPAC is limited. In this study, the model fidelity in representing these two dominant ISV modes over the EPAC is assessed by analyzing six atmospheric and three coupled general circulation models (GCMs), including one super-parameterized GCM (SPCAM) and one recently developed high-resolution GCM (GFDL HIRAM) with horizontal resolution of about 50 km. While it remains challenging for GCMs to faithfully represent these two ISV modes including their amplitude, evolution patterns, and periodicities, encouraging simulations are also noted. In general, SPCAM and HIRAM exhibit relatively superior skill in representing the two ISV modes over the EPAC. While the advantage of SPCAM is achieved through explicit representation of the cumulus process by the embedded 2-D cloud resolving models, the improved representation in HIRAM could be ascribed to the employment of a strongly entraining plume cumulus scheme, which inhibits the deep convection, and thus effectively enhances the stratiform rainfall. The sensitivity tests based on HIRAM also suggest that fine horizontal resolution could also be conducive to realistically capture the ISV over the EPAC, particularly for the QBM mode. Further analysis illustrates that the observed 40-day ISV mode over the EPAC is closely linked to the eastward propagating ISV signals from the Indian Ocean/Western Pacific, which is in agreement with the general impression that the 40-day ISV mode over the EPAC could be a local expression of the global Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). In contrast, the convective signals associated with the 40-day mode over the EPAC in most of the GCM simulations tend to originate between 150degE and 150degW, suggesting the 40-day ISV mode over the EPAC might be sustained without the forcing by the eastward propagating MJO. Further investigation is warranted towards improved understanding of the origin of the ISV over the EPAC.

Intraseasonal Variability↗
NASA NTRS2012

Tropical Atlantic Dust and Smoke Aerosol Variabilities Related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation in MODIS and MISR Observations

In this study, MODIS fine mode fraction and MISR non-spherical fraction are 2used to derive dust and smoke AOT components (tau(sub dust) and tau(sub smoke)) over the tropical Atlantic, and their variabilities related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) are then investigated. Both MODIS and MISR show a very similar dust and smoke winter climatology. tau(sub dust) is found to be the dominant aerosol component over the tropical Atlantic while tau(sub smoke) is significantly smaller than tau(sub dust). The daily MODIS and MISR tau(sub dust) are overall highly correlated, with the correlation coefficients typically about 0.7 over the North Atlantic. The consistency between the MODIS and MISR dust and smoke aerosol climatology and daily variations give us confidence to use these two data sets to investigate their relative contributions to the total AOT variation associated with the MJO. However, unlike the MISR dust discrimination, which is based on particle shape retrievals, the smoke discrimination is less certain, based on assumed partitioning of maritime aerosol for both MISR and MODIS. The temporal evolution and spatial patterns of the tau(sub dust) anomalies associated with the MJO are consistent between MODIS and MISR. The tau(sub dust) anomalies are very similar to those of tau anomalies, and are of comparable magnitude. In contrast, the MJO-related tau(sub smoke) anomalies are rather small, and the tau(sub mar) anomalies are negligible. The consistency between the MODIS and MISR results suggests that dust aerosol is the dominant component on the intra-seasonal time scale over the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

Guo, Yanjuan↗
NASA NTRS2011

Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System. Second Edition

Understanding and predicting the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of the ocean and atmosphere is crucial to improving long-range environmental forecasts and the reliability of climate change projections through climate models. This updated, comprehensive and authoritative second edition has a balance of observation, theory and modeling and provides a single source of reference for all those interested in this important multi-faceted natural phenomenon and its relation to major short-term climatic variations.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2009

A Multiscale Modeling System: Developments, Applications, and Critical Issues

The foremost challenge in parameterizing convective clouds and cloud systems in large-scale models are the many coupled dynamical and physical processes that interact over a wide range of scales, from microphysical scales to the synoptic and planetary scales. This makes the comprehension and representation of convective clouds and cloud systems one of the most complex scientific problems in Earth science. During the past decade, the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Cloud System Study (GCSS) has pioneered the use of single-column models (SCMs) and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) for the evaluation of the cloud and radiation parameterizations in general circulation models (GCMs; e.g., GEWEX Cloud System Science Team 1993). These activities have uncovered many systematic biases in the radiation, cloud and convection parameterizations of GCMs and have led to the development of new schemes (e.g., Zhang 2002; Pincus et al, 2003; Zhang and Wu 2003; Wu et al. 2003; Liang and Wu 2005; Wu and Liang 2005, and others). Comparisons between SCMs and CRMs using the same large-scale forcing derived from field campaigns have demonstrated that CRMs are superior to SCMs in the prediction of temperature and moisture tendencies (e.g., Das et al. 1999; Randall et al 2003b; Xie et al. 2005).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2008

Characterization of MJO-Related Upper Tropospheric Hydrological Processes using MLS

This study quantifies Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)- related hydrological variability in the upper troposphere/ lower stratosphere (UT/LS) using Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) cloud ice water content (IWC) and water vapor (H2O). In a composite of six boreal-winter MJO events, the UT/LS IWC anomaly is strongly positively correlated with the convection (TRMM rainfall) anomaly. IWC anomalies range from +/-2 mg/cu m at 215 hPa to +/-0.08 mg/cu m at 100 hPa. The UT/LS H2O anomaly has an eastward-tilting structure similar to the previous-documented temperature structure, but the H2O maximum lags the temperature maximum by about a week. The H2O anomaly is positively correlated with the convection anomaly in the UT (261 hPa) and LS (68 hPa) but negatively correlated with the convection anomaly near the tropopause (100 hPa). This analysis provides a multi-parameter construct useful in validating and improving the parameterization of convection, clouds and cloud microphysics in MJO modeling.

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)↗
NASA NTRS2006

Relationships of Upper Tropospheric Water Vapor, Clouds and SST: MLS Observations, ECMWF Analyses and GCM Simulations

The relationships of upper tropospheric water vapor (UTWV), cloud ice and sea surface temperature (SST) are examined in the annual cycles of ECMWF analyses and simulations from 15 atmosphere-ocean coupled models which were contributed to the IPCC AR4. The results are compared with the observed relationships based on UTWV and cloud ice measurements from MLS on Aura. It is shown that the ECMWF analyses produce positive correlations between UTWV, cloud ice and SST, similar to the MLS data. The rate of the increase of cloud ice and UTWV with SST is about 30% larger than that for MLS. For the IPCC simulations, the relationships between UTWV, cloud ice and SST are qualitatively captured. However, the magnitudes of the simulated cloud ice show a considerable disagreement between models, by nearly a factor of 10. The amplitudes of the approximate linear relations between UTWV, cloud ice and SST vary by a factor up to 4.

sea surface temperature (SST)↗
NASA NTRS2006

Using Microwave Limb Sounder Data to Validate Model Ice Fields

MLS IWC overall tends to be higher relative to ECMWF after considering MLS track sampling and sensitivity (cutoff application). Disagreement tends to be accentuated over Indian and Western Pacific Oceans and over tropical landmasses. Large disagreement occur at upper level at 147 hPa but small at lower levels at 215 and 316 hPa suggesting the need to investigate the strength of model large-scale circulation and physics associated with the IWC formation. Future work includes: Present MMF/ECMWF Comparisons at AGU/Baltimore Session on MMF/Cloud Resolving Modeling, GMAO/GSFC & at the WPac/Bejing/AGU in Tao's Cloud-Radiation Session. Write-up Results on ECMWF/MLS Comparisons for GRL. Continue with MLS vs ECMWF Water Vapor & Temperature comparisons - will seek more interaction with other MLS colleagues. Investigate the Development of Biases in ECMWF Forecasts - i.e. in the actual model. Work with GMAO-5 development team regarding their cloud microphysics performance. Integrate CloudSat into IWC Analyses.

cloud ice↗
NASA NTRS2006

Vertical Moist Thermodynamic Structure and Spatial-Temporal Evolution of the MJO in AIRS Observations

The atmospheric moisture and temperature profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit on the NASA Aqua mission, in combination with the precipitation from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), are employed to study the vertical moist thermodynamic structure and spatial-temporal evolution of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). The AIRS data indicate that, in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, the temperature anomaly exhibits a trimodal vertical structure: a warm (cold) anomaly in the free troposphere (800-250 hPa) and a cold (warm) anomaly near the tropopause (above 250 hPa) and in the lower troposphere (below 800 hPa) associated with enhanced (suppressed) convection. The AIRS moisture anomaly also shows markedly different vertical structures as a function of longitude and the strength of convection anomaly. Most significantly, the AIRS data demonstrate that, over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, the enhanced (suppressed) convection is generally preceded in both time and space by a low-level warm and moist (cold and dry) anomaly and followed by a low-level cold and dry (warm and moist) anomaly. The MJO vertical moist thermodynamic structure from the AIRS data is in general agreement, particularly in the free troposphere, with previous studies based on global reanalysis and limited radiosonde data. However, major differences in the lower-troposphere moisture and temperature structure between the AIRS observations and the NCEP reanalysis are found over the Indian and Pacific Oceans, where there are very few conventional data to constrain the reanalysis. Specifically, the anomalous lower-troposphere temperature structure is much less well defined in NCEP than in AIRS for the western Pacific, and even has the opposite sign anomalies compared to AIRS relative to the wet/dry phase of the MJO in the Indian Ocean. Moreover, there are well-defined eastward-tilting variations of moisture with height in AIRS over the central and eastern Pacific that are less well defined, and in some cases absent, in NCEP. In addition, the correlation between MJO-related mid-tropospheric water vapor anomalies and TRMM precipitation anomalies is considerably more robust in AIRS than in NCEP, especially over the Indian Ocean. Overall, the AIRS results are quite consistent with those predicted by the frictional Kelvin-Rossby wave/conditional instability of the second kind (CISK) theory for the MJO.

troposhere↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Multi-scale Modeling System: Developments, Applications and Critical Issues

A multi-scale modeling framework (MMF), which replaces the conventional cloud parameterizations with a cloud-resolving model (CRM) in each grid column of a GCM, constitutes a new and promising approach. The MMF can provide for global coverage and two-way interactions between the CRMs and their parent GCM. The GCM allows global coverage and the CRM allows explicit simulation of cloud processes and their interactions with radiation and surface processes. A new MMF has been developed that is based the Goddard finite volume GCM (fvGCM) and the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. This Goddard MMF produces many features that are similar to another MMF that was developed at Colorado State University (CSU), such as an improved .surface precipitation pattern, better cloudiness, improved diurnal variability over both oceans and continents, and a stronger, propagating Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) compared to their parent GCMs using conventional cloud parameterizations. Both MMFs also produce a precipitation bias in the western Pacific during Northern Hemisphere summer. However, there are also notable differences between two MMFs. For example, the CSU MMF simulates less rainfall over land than its parent GCM. This is why the CSU MMF simulated less overall global rainfall than its parent GCM. The Goddard MMF overestimates global rainfall because of its oceanic component. Some critical issues associated with the Goddard MMF are presented in this paper.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗