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Walker, Thomas

Publications and source records attributed to Walker, Thomas.

7 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Comprehensive compartmental model and calibration algorithm for the study of clinical implications of the population-level spread of COVID-19: a study protocol

The complex dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has made obtaining reliable long-term forecasts of the disease progression difficult. Simple mechanistic models with deterministic parameters are useful for short-term predictions but have ultimately been unsuccessful in extrapolating the trajectory of the pandemic because of unmodelled dynamics and the unrealistic level of certainty that is assumed in the predictions. We propose a 22-compartment epidemiological model that includes compartments not previously considered concurrently, to account for the effects of vaccination, asymptomatic individuals, inadequate access to hospital care, post-acute COVID-19 and recovery with long-term health complications. Additionally, new connections between compartments introduce new dynamics to the system and provide a framework to study the sensitivity of model outputs to several concurrent effects, including temporary immunity, vaccination rate and vaccine effectiveness. Subject to data availability for a given region, we discuss a means by which population demographics (age, comorbidity, socioeconomic status, sex and geographical location) and clinically relevant information (different variants, different vaccines) can be incorporated within the 22-compartment framework. Considering a probabilistic interpretation of the parameters allows the model's predictions to reflect the current state of uncertainty about the model parameters and model states. We propose the use of a sparse Bayesian learning algorithm for parameter calibration and model selection. This methodology considers a combination of prescribed parameter prior distributions for parameters that are known to be essential to the modelled dynamics and automatic relevance determination priors for parameters whose relevance is questionable. This is useful as it helps prevent overfitting the available epidemiological data when calibrating the parameters of the proposed model. Population-level administrative health data will serve as partial observations of the model states.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Heart Rate Responses to Unaided Orion Side Hatch Egress in the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory

NASA is developing the Orion capsule as a vehicle for transporting crewmembers to and from the International Space Station (ISS) and for future human space exploration missions. Orion and other commercial vehicles are designed to splash down in the ocean where nominally support personnel will assist crewmembers in egressing the vehicle. However, off-nominal scenarios will require crewmembers to egress the vehicle unaided, deploy survival equipment, and ingress a life raft. PURPOSE: To determine the heart rate (HR) responses to unaided Orion side hatch egress and raft ingress as a part of the NASA Crew Survival Engineering Team's evaluation of the PORT Orion mockup in the Neutral Buoyancy Laboratory (NBL). METHODS: Nineteen test subjects, including four astronauts (N=19, 14 males/5 females, 38.6+/-8.4 y, 174.4+/-9.6 cm, 75.7+/-13.1 kg), completed a graded maximal test on a cycle ergometer to determine VO2peak and HRpeak and were divided into five crews of four members each; one subject served on two crews. Each crew was required to deploy a life raft, egress the Orion vehicle from the side hatch, and ingress the life raft with two 8 kg emergency packs per crew. Each crew performed this activity one to three times; a total of ten full egresses were completed. Subjects wore a suit that was similar in form, mass, and function to the Modified Advanced Crew Escape Suit (MACES) including helmet, gloves, boots, supplemental O2 bottles, and a CO2-inflated life preserver (approx.18 kg); subjects began each trial seated supine in the PORT Orion mockup with seat belts and mockup O2 and communication connections and ended each trial with all four crewmembers inside the life raft. RESULTS: VO2peak was 40.8+/-6.8 mL/kg/min (3.1+/-0.7 L/min); HRpeak was 181+/-10 bpm. Total egress time across trials was 5.0+/-1.6 min (range: 2.8-8.0 min); all subjects were able to successfully complete all trials. Average maximum HR at activity start, at the hatch opening, in the water, and in the raft, was 108, 137, 147, and 153 bpm, respectively; these values corresponded to 59+/-10%, 73+/-8%, 82+/-3%, and 84+/-6% of HRpeak, respectively. The highest HRs were seen after raft ingress and ranged from 72-99% HRpeak. Across all trials, cumulative averages of 5.4, 3.0, 1.1, and 0.2 min were spent at HRs >60%, >70%, >80%, and >90% HRpeak, respectively. CONCLUSION: Unaided Orion side hatch egress in the NBL is a relatively short-duration activity that elicits a high HR response for several min. Although all crewmembers successfully completed this activity, additional factors such as high seas, poor visibility, an incapacitated crewmember, neurovestibular perturbation, and neuromuscular deconditioning characteristic of a true operational environment may increase the physiologic demand (or decrease crewmembers' physiologic capacity) of unaided Orion side hatch egress. Additionally, landing conditions may require the crewmembers to egress from the top hatch, which is expected to be even more physiologically demanding; this condition will be evaluated in subsequent collaborative testing with the NASA Crew Survival Engineering Team.

English, Kirk L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Financial Comparisons across Different Business Models in the Canadian Airline Industry

This paper examines the accounting and stock price performance of two Canadian airlines, WestJet and Air Canada, over a five year period, taking into account the aftermath of the systemic shock to the airline industry produced by the September 11, 2001 (9-11), terrorist attacks and subsequent events such as the 2002 SARS outbreak, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the accompanying rise in jet fuel prices. Our study focuses on the viability of low-cost versus conventional-cost business models in Canada under the current business environment and the ability of airlines to withstand and effectively respond to catastrophic industry events. Furthermore, we link the effectiveness of the airlines responses to these events to specific elements of their respective business models. We test our hypothesis through a case study. We focus on WestJet as a typical low-cost airline and compare its accounting and stock performance to Air Canada, a legacy carrier and rival in several business sectors. We find WestJet to be much less affected by catastrophic industry events. By decomposing each airline s return volatility, we observe that WestJet s systematic and unsystematic risk increased only slightly during the industry's post-9-11 turmoil when compared to Air Canada. In addition, we find that both WestJet s accounting and stock performance have been highly superior to those of Air Canada. We argue that WestJet s business model provides the firm with significantly more financial and operational flexibility than its legacy rival, Air Canada. WestJet's lower operating costs, high consumer trust, product offering, corporate structure, workforce and work practices, as well as operational procedures are all factors that appear to contribute to its relative success.

Flouris, Triant↗
NASA NTRS2005

Confidence in Airline Performance in Difficult Market Conditions: An Analysis of JetBlue's Financial Market Results

This paper examines the stock market s reaction to JetBlue s Initial Public Offering (1PO) and subsequent price movements of the stock. In particular, w e examine whether the euphoria surrounding JetBlue s IPO carried over to other firms in the sector by testing whether the shares of JetBlue s competitors showed a significant price reaction to JetBlue s IPO. JetBlue's IPO took place just a few months following September 11, 2001. These events resulted in dramatic changes in the airline industry and had significant implications on the economic gains of airlines. We examine JetBlue s accounting and stock performance and compare it to the relative performance of Southwest Airlines (SWA), a representative of the loa-cost carrier group. In addition, we compare both JetBlue's and SWA's financial condition and the relative performance of their stock to two mainline U S. carriers, Continental and Northwest. representatives of the conventional-cost carrier group. We analyze whether there are any performance differences among the low-cost carriers and between low-cost carriers and conventional-cost carriers. In particular, we examine whether low-cost carriers were able to sustain the economic impacts of 9/11 better than the conventional-cost carriers.

Flouris, Triant↗