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Wall, Casey J.

Publications and source records attributed to Wall, Casey J..

Adjustments to Climate Perturbations—Mechanisms, Implications, Observational Constraints

Since the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR5) an extended concept of the energetic analysis of climate change including forcings, feedbacks and adjustment processes has become widely adopted. Adjustments are defined as processes that occur in response to the introduction of a climate forcing agent, but that are independent of global-mean surface temperature changes. Most considered are the adjustments that impact the Earth energy budget and strengthen or weaken the instantaneous radiative forcing due to the forcing agent. Some adjustment mechanisms also impact other aspects of climate not related to the Earth radiation budget. Since AR5 and a following description by Sherwood et al., much research on adjustments has been performed and is reviewed here. We classify the adjustment mechanisms into six main categories, and discuss methods of quantifying these adjustments in terms of their potentials, shortcomings and practicality. We furthermore describe aspects of adjustments that act beyond the energetic framework, and we propose new ideas to observe adjustments or to make use of observations to constrain their representation in models. Altogether, the problem of adjustments is now on a robust scientific footing, and better quantification and observational constraint is possible. This allows for improvements in understanding and quantifying climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Buffering of Aerosol-Cloud Adjustments by Coupling Between Radiative Susceptibility and Precipitation Efficiency

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) in warm clouds are the primary source of uncertainty in effective radiative forcing (ERF) during the historical period and, by extension, inferred climate sensitivity. The ERF due to ACI (ERFaci) is composed of the radiative forcing due to changes in cloud microphysics and cloud adjustments to microphysics. Here, we examine the processes that drive ERFaci using a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in CAM6. Observational constraints on the PPE result in substantial constraints in the response of cloud microphysics and macrophysics to anthropogenic aerosol, but only minimal constraint on ERFaci. Examination of cloud and radiation processes in the PPE reveal buffering of ERFaci by the interaction of precipitation efficiency and radiative susceptibility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing effective radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions over the global ocean

How clouds respond to anthropogenic sulfate aerosols is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate over the industrial era. This uncertainty limits our ability to predict equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)—the equilibrium global warming following a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 . Here, we use satellite observations to quantify relationships between sulfate aerosols and low-level clouds while carefully controlling for meteorology. We then combine the relationships with estimates of the change in sulfate concentration since about 1850 to constrain the associated radiative forcing. We estimate that the cloud-mediated radiative forcing from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols is − 1.11 ± 0.43 W m −2 over the global ocean (95% confidence). This constraint implies that ECS is likely between 2.9 and 4.5 K (66% confidence). Our results indicate that aerosol forcing is less uncertain and ECS is probably larger than the ranges proposed by recent climate assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Lagrangian perspective on tropical anvil cloud lifecycle in present and future climate

The evolution of tropical anvil clouds from their origin in deep convective cores to their slow decay determines the climatic effects of clouds in tropical convective regions. Despite the relevance of anvil clouds for climate and responses of clouds to global warming, processes dominating their evolution are not well understood. Currently available observational data reveal instantaneous snapshots of anvil cloud properties, but cannot provide a process-based perspective on anvil evolution. We therefore conduct simulations with the high resolution version of the Exascale Earth System Model in which we track mesoscale convective systems over the Tropical Western Pacific and compute trajectories that follow air parcels detrained from peaks of convective activity. With this approach we gain new insight into the anvil cloud evolution both in present day and future climate. Comparison with geostationary satellite data shows that the model is able to simulate maritime mesoscale convective systems reasonably well. Trajectory results indicate that anvil cloud lifetime is about 15 hours with no significant change in a warmer climate. The anvil ice mixing ratio is larger in a warmer climate due to a larger source of ice by detrainment and larger depositional growth leading to a more negative net cloud radiative effect along detrained trajectories. However, the increases in sources are counteracted by increases in sinks of ice, particularly snow formation and sedimentation. Furthermore, we find that the mean anvil cloud feedback along trajectories is positive and consistent with results from more traditional cloud feedback calculation methods.

climate, weather, mesocale cellular convection↗