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Walsh, Timothy

Publications and source records attributed to Walsh, Timothy.

Assessing decision boundaries under uncertainty

In order to make design decisions, engineers may seek to identify regions of the design domain that are acceptable in a computationally efficient manner. A design is typically considered acceptable if its reliability with respect to parametric uncertainty exceeds the designer’s desired level of confidence. Despite major advancements in reliability estimation and in design classification via decision boundary estimation, the current literature still lacks a design classification strategy that incorporates parametric uncertainty and desired design confidence. To address this gap, this paper offers a novel interpretation of the acceptance region by defining the decision boundary as the hypersurface which isolates the designs that exceed a user-defined level of confidence given parametric uncertainty. This work addresses the construction of this novel decision boundary using computationally efficient algorithms that were developed for reliability analysis and decision boundary estimation. The approach proposed in this paper is verified on two physical examples from structural and thermal analysis using Support Vector Machines and Efficient Global Optimization-based contour estimation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

An Overview of the Design and Development of the GOES R-Series Space Segment

The first of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite R-series (GOES-R) satellites was launched in November 2016. GOES-R has been developed by NOAA in partnership with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The satellite represents a quantum leap in the state of the art for geostationary weather satellites by providing data from a suite of six new instruments. All instruments were developed expressly for this mission, and include two Earth-observing instruments (the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM)), two solar-viewing instruments (Solar Ultraviolet Imager (SUVI) and Extreme ultraviolet and X-ray Irradiance Sensors (EXIS)) and two in situ instruments (Space Environment In-Situ Suite (SEISS) and a magnetometer pair). In addition to hosting the instruments, GOES-R also accommodates several communication packages designed to collect and relay data for weather forecasting and emergency management. Accommodating the six instruments and four communication payloads imposed challenging and competing constraints on the satellite, including requirements for extremely stable earth and solar pointing, high-speed and nearly error-free instrument data transmission, and a very quiet electromagnetic background. To meet mission needs, GOES-R employed several technological innovations, including low-thrust rocket engines that allow instrument observations to continue during maneuvers, and the first civilian use of Global Positioning System-based orbit determination in geostationary orbit. This paper will provide a brief overview of the GOES-R satellite and its instruments as well as the developmental challenges involved in accommodating the instruments and communications payloads.

GOES-16