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Wang, Hailan

Publications and source records attributed to Wang, Hailan.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2020

Prediction Skill of the 2012 U.S. Great Plains Flash Drought in Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) Models

Flash droughts refer to droughts that develop much more rapidly than normal (i.e., on the order of weeks to a few months). Such droughts can have devastating impacts on agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. The ability to predict flash droughts in advance would greatly enhance our preparation for them and potentially mitigate their impacts. We investigated the prediction skill of U.S. flash droughts at subseasonal lead times in global forecast systems participating in the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) project. An additional comprehensive set of hindcasts with NASA?s GEOSv2.1, a model with relatively high prediction skill, was performed to investigate the separate contributions of atmospheric and land initial conditions to flash drought prediction skill. Here we focus on results for the 2012 Great Plains flash drought, noting that the findings based on this event are generally applicable to other U.S. flash droughts. The prediction skill of the SubX models is quite variable. While the skill is limited to less than 2 weeks in most models, it is considerably higher (3-4 weeks or more) for certain models and initialization dates. The enhanced prediction skill is found to originate from two robust sources: 1) accurate soil moisture initialization, and 2) the satisfactory representation of quasi-stationary cross-North Pacific Rossby wave trains that lead to the rapid intensification of flash droughts. Our results corroborate earlier findings that accurate soil moisture initialization is important for skillful subseasonal forecasts and highlight the need for additional research on the sources and predictability of drought-inducing quasi-stationary Rossby waves.

DeAngelis, Anthony M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Flash Drought as Captured by MERRA-2: Disentangling the Contributions of Precipitation Deficit and Excess Energy

Flash droughts uncharacteristically rapid dryings of the land system are naturally associated with extreme precipitation deficits. Such precipitation deficits, however, do not tell the whole story. Land surface drying can be exacerbated by anomalously high evapotranspiration (ET) rates driven, for example, by anomalously high temperatures (e.g., during heatwaves) and/or anomalously high incoming radiation (e.g., from reduced cloudiness). In this study the relative contributions of precipitation and ET anomalies to flash drought generation are quantified through the analysis of diagnostic fields contained within the MERRA-2 reanalysis product. Unique to the overall approach is the explicit treatment of soil moisture impacts on ET an ET anomaly that is negative relative to the local long-term climatological mean is still considered positive in terms of its contribution to a flash drought, if it is high for the concurrent value of soil moisture. Maps produced in the analysis show the fraction of flash drought production stemming specifically from ET anomalies and the degree to which these ET anomalies are related to temperature and radiation anomalies. ET is found to have a large impact, for example, on flash drought production in the east-central US and in parts of Russia known from past studies to be prone to heatwave-related drought.

Koster, Randal↗
NASA NTRS2018

Prediction Skill of U.S. Flash Droughts in Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) Model Hindcasts

Droughts that establish themselves over a short period of time (weeks to a few months), referred to as flash droughts, can have devastating impacts on agriculture, water resources, and ecosystems. The ability to predict such droughts in advance would greatly enhance our preparation for them and potentially reduce their impacts. The sub-seasonal time scale at which flash droughts occur emphasizes the importance of producing forecasts at weekly or finer intervals that extend beyond the numerical weather prediction time frame. Here we assess the ability of eight global forecast systems, each participating in the Sub-seasonal Experiment project (SubX), to predict key features associated with rapidly developing droughts over the United States during the last two decades. MERRA2 reanalysis is used as observations. Prediction skill for temperature and precipitation anomalies during these events is limited to the first 1-2 weeks after initialization for most hindcasts. However, there are some hindcasts in which large anomalies are well predicted 3-4 weeks or more in advance. The physical mechanisms that are key to the development of surface anomalies, including quasi-stationary atmospheric waves, were also evaluated. Most hindcasts were unable to capture the development or progression of such drought-inducing circulation features more than 1-2 weeks in advance.

Deangelis, Anthony M.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Simulation and Prediction of Warm Season Drought in North America

This presentation presents our recent work on model simulation and prediction of warm season drought in North America. The emphasis will be on the contribution from the leading modes of subseasonal atmospheric circulation variability, which are often present in the form of stationary Rossby waves. Here we take advantage of the results from observations, reanalyses, and simulations and reforecasts performed using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) atmospheric and coupled General Circulation Model (GCM). Our results show that stationary Rossby waves play a key role in Northern Hemisphere (NH) atmospheric circulation and surface meteorology variability on subseasonal timescales. In particular, such waves have been crucial to the development of recent short-term warm season heat waves and droughts over North America (e.g. the 1988, 1998, and 2012 summer droughts) and northern Eurasia (e.g., the 2003 summer heat wave over Europe and the 2010 summer drought and heat wave over Russia). Through an investigation of the physical processes by which these waves lead to the development of warm season drought in North America, it is further found that these waves can serve as a potential source of drought predictability. In order to properly represent their effect and exploit this source of predictability, a model needs to correctly simulate the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean jet streams and be able to predict the sources of these waves. Given the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM deficiency in simulating the NH jet streams and tropical convection during boreal summer, an approach has been developed to artificially remove much of model mean biases, which leads to considerable improvement in model simulation and prediction of stationary Rossby waves and drought development in North America. Our study points to the need to identify key model biases that limit model simulation and prediction of regional climate extremes, and diagnose the origin of these biases so as to inform modeling group for model improvement.

Rossby Waves↗
NASA NTRS2018

NASA GMAO S2S Prediction System Hindcast and Near-Real Time Operations Strategy

In this presentation we present an overview of the GMAO Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Prediction System with a focus on the computing time and resources and actual time it takes to complete a full set of hindcasts. The goal is to come up with some solutions to allow us to run more ensemble members for the next version of the system which will be higher resolution and take many more resources.

Kovach, Robin↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Realization of Bias Correction Method in the GMAO Coupled System

Over the past several decades, a tremendous effort has been made to improve model performance in the simulation of the climate system. The cold or warm sea surface temperature (SST) bias in the tropics is still a problem common to most coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (CGCMs). The precipitation biases in CGCMs are also accompanied by SST and surface wind biases. The deficiencies and biases over the equatorial oceans through their influence on the Walker circulation likely contribute the precipitation biases over land surfaces. In this study, we introduce an approach in the CGCM modeling to correct model biases. This approach utilizes the history of the model's short-term forecasting errors and their seasonal dependence to modify model's tendency term and to minimize its climate drift. The study shows that such an approach removes most of model climate biases. A number of other aspects of the model simulation (e.g. extratropical transient activities) are also improved considerably due to the imposed pre-processed initial 3-hour model drift corrections. Because many regional biases in the GEOS-5 CGCM are common amongst other current models, our approaches and findings are applicable to these other models as well.

Chang, Yehui↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Role of DYNAMO in Situ Observations in Improving NASA Ceres-like Daily Surface and Atmospheric Radiative Flux Estimates

The daily surface and atmospheric radiative fluxes from NASA Clouds and the Earths RadiantEnergy System (CERES) Synoptic 1 degree (SYN1deg) Ed3A are among the most widely used data to studycloud-radiative feedback. The CERES SYN1deg data are based on Fu-Liou radiative transfer computations thatuse specific humidity (Q) and air temperature (T) from NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO)reanalyses as inputs and are therefore subject to the quality of those fields. This study uses in situ Q and Tobservations collected during the Dynamics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (DYNAMO) field campaign toaugment the input stream used in the NASA GMAO reanalysis and assess the impact on the CERES dailysurface and atmospheric longwave estimates. The results show that the assimilation of DYNAMOobservations considerably improves the vertical profiles of analyzed Q and T over and near DYNAMO stationsby moistening and warming the lower troposphere and upper troposphere and drying and cooling themid-upper troposphere. As a result of these changes in Q and T, the computed CERES daily surface downwardlongwave flux increases by about 5 W m(exp -2), due mainly to the warming and moistening in the lowertroposphere; the computed daily top-of-atmosphere (TOA) outgoing longwave radiation increases by2-3 W m(exp -2) during dry periods only. Correspondingly, the estimated local atmospheric longwave radiativecooling enhances by about 5 W m(exp -2) (7-8 W m(exp -2)) during wet (dry) periods. These changes reduce the bias inthe CERES SYN1deg-like daily longwave estimates at both the TOA and surface and represent animprovement over the DYNAMO region.

DYNAMO↗
NASA NTRS2017

North American Drought and Links to Northern Eurasia: The Role of Stationary Rossby Waves

This chapter provides an overview of the role of stationary Rossby waves in the sub-seasonal development of warm season drought over North America and subsequent downstream development of climate anomalies over northern Eurasia. The results are based on a case study of a stationary Rossby wave event that developed during 20 May 15 June 1988. Simulations with the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) atmospheric general circulation model highlight the importance of the mean jet streams in guiding and constraining the path and speed of wave energy propagation. In particular, convective anomalies that developed over the western Pacific in late May (in the presence of the strong North Pacific jet) produce a predilection for persistent upper-level high anomalies over central North America about ten days later, leading to the rapid development of severe dry conditions there. There are indications of continued downstream wave energy propagation that reaches northern Eurasia about two weeks later, leading to the development of dry conditions over eastern Europe and western Russia, and cool and wet conditions over western Europe and central northern Eurasia. The results suggest that stationary Rossby waves can serve as a source of predictability for sub-seasonal development of droughts over North America and northern Eurasia.

GEOS-5↗
NASA NTRS2015

Global Ocean Evaporation: How Well Can We Estimate Interannual to Decadal Variability?

Evaporation from the world's oceans constitutes the largest component of the global water balance. It is important not only as the ultimate source of moisture that is tied to the radiative processes determining Earth's energy balance but also to freshwater availability over land, governing habitability of the planet. Here we focus on variability of ocean evaporation on scales from interannual to decadal by appealing to three sources of data: the new MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications -2); climate models run with historical sea-surface temperatures, ice and atmospheric constituents (so-called AMIP experiments); and state-of-the-art satellite retrievals from the Seaflux and HOAPS (Hamburg Ocean-Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite) projects. Each of these sources has distinct advantages as well as drawbacks. MERRA-2, like other reanalyses, synthesizes evaporation estimates consistent with observationally constrained physical and dynamical models-but data stream discontinuities are a major problem for interpreting multi-decadal records. The climate models used in data assimilation can also be run with lesser constraints such as with SSTs and sea-ice (i.e. AMIPs) or with additional, minimal observations of surface pressure and marine observations that have longer and less fragmentary observational records. We use the new ERA-20C reanalysis produced by ECMWF embodying the latter methodology. Still, the model physics biases in climate models and the lack of a predicted surface energy balance are of concern. Satellite retrievals and comparisons to ship-based measurements offer the most observationally-based estimates, but sensor inter-calibration, algorithm retrieval assumptions, and short records are dominant issues. Our strategy depends on maximizing the advantages of these combined records. The primary diagnostic tool used here is an analysis of bulk aerodynamic computations produced by these sources and uses a first-order Taylor series analysis of wind speed, SST, near-surface stability and relative humidity variations around climatology to gauge the importance of these components. We find that the MERRA-2 evaporation record is strongly influenced by the availability of wind speed and humidity from passive microwave imagers beginning in the late 1980s as well as by the SST record. The trend over the period 1980 to present is nearly 10%. AMIP or the ERA-20C trends are much smaller. We find that ENSO-related signals involving both wind speed and thermodynamic variability remain the primary signal in the latter and are confirmed by satellite retrievals. We present uncertainty estimates based on the various data sources and discuss the implications for GEWEX water and energy budget science challenges.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Interannual to Decadal Variability of Ocean Evaporation as Viewed from Climate Reanalyses

Questions we'll address: Given the uncoupled framework of "AMIP" (Atmosphere Model Inter-comparison Project) experiments, what can they tell us regarding evaporation variability? Do Reduced Observations Reanalyses (RedObs) using Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SFC) pressure (and wind) provide a more realistic picture of evaporation variability? What signals of interannual variability (e.g. El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) and decadal variability (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)) are detectable with this hierarchy of evaporation estimates?

Climate Variability↗
NASA NTRS2015

Causes of the 2011-14 California Drought

The causes of the California drought during November-April winters of 2011/12-2013/14 are analyzed using observations and ensemble simulations with seven atmosphere models forced by observed SSTs. Historically, dry California winters are most commonly associated with a ridge off the west coast but no obvious SST forcing. Wet winters are most commonly associated with a trough off the west coast and an El Nino event. These attributes of dry and wet winters are captured by many of the seven models. According to the models, SST forcing can explain up to a third of California winter precipitation variance. SST forcing was key to sustaining a high pressure ridge over the west coast and suppressing precipitation during the three winters. In 2011/12 this was a response to a La Nina event, whereas in 2012/13 and 2013/14 it appears related to a warm west-cool east tropical Pacific SST pattern. All models contain a mode of variability linking such tropical Pacific SST anomalies to a wave train with a ridge off the North American west coast. This mode explains less variance than ENSO and Pacific decadal variability, and its importance in 2012/13 and 2013/14 was unusual. The models from phase 5 of CMIP (CMIP5) project rising greenhouse gases to cause changes in California all-winter precipitation that are very small compared to recent drought anomalies. However, a long-term warming trend likely contributed to surface moisture deficits during the drought. As such, the precipitation deficit during the drought was dominated by natural variability, a conclusion framed by discussion of differences between observed and modeled tropical SST trends.

California Drought↗
NASA NTRS2015

The ENSO Effects on Tropical Clouds and Top-of-Atmosphere Cloud Radiative Effects in CMIP5 Models

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects on tropical clouds and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) cloud radiative effects (CREs) in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase5 (CMIP5) models are evaluated using satellite-based observations and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project satellite simulator output. Climatologically, most CMIP5 models produce considerably less total cloud amount with higher cloud top and notably larger reflectivity than observations in tropical Indo-Pacific (60 degrees East - 200 degrees East; 10 degrees South - 10 degrees North). During ENSO, most CMIP5 models considerably underestimate TOA CRE and cloud changes over western tropical Pacific. Over central tropical Pacific, while the multi-model mean resembles observations in TOA CRE and cloud amount anomalies, it notably overestimates cloud top pressure (CTP) decreases; there are also substantial inter-model variations. The relative effects of changes in cloud properties, temperature and humidity on TOA CRE anomalies during ENSO in the CMIP5 models are assessed using cloud radiative kernels. The CMIP5 models agree with observations in that their TOA shortwave CRE anomalies are primarily contributed by total cloud amount changes, and their TOA longwave CRE anomalies are mostly contributed by changes in both total cloud amount and CTP. The model biases in TOA CRE anomalies particularly the strong underestimations over western tropical Pacific are, however, mainly explained by model biases in CTP and cloud optical thickness (tau) changes. Despite the distinct model cloud biases particularly in tau regime, the TOA CRE anomalies from cloud amount changes are comparable between the CMIP5 models and observations, because of the strong compensations between model underestimation of TOA CRE anomalies from thin clouds and overestimation from medium and thick clouds.

Su, Wenying↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Enhanced Seasonal Transition that Intensified Summer Drought in the Central U.S.

Precipitation in the central U.S. decreases by about 25% during the seasonal transition from June to July, and this precipitation decrease has been observed to have intensified since 1979. Such an intensification could enhance future spring drought occurrences such as was the case in the 2012 "flash drought" in the Midwestern U.S., where conditions evolved quickly from being abnormally dry to exceptionally dry within a mere month from June to July. In this study, various atmospheric and land reanalysis datasets were analyzed to examine the trend calculated from 1979 to 2012 in the June-to-July seasonal transition. It was found that the change in precipitation deficit was accompanied by increased downward shortwave radiation flux and tropospheric subsidence, enhanced evaporative fraction, as well as an elevated planetary boundary layer height. The change in the tropospheric circulation encompassed an anomalous ridge over the western U.S. and a trough on either side; this wave-form circulation pattern is known to induce dry conditions in the central U.S. Possibly, the trends in the June-to-July seasonal shifts in precipitation, drought severity and tropospheric circulation intensified the 2012 "flash drought" in timing and extent. The knowledge of the trends allows one to anticipate the evolution of spring onset of drought into the summer.

Drought↗
NASA NTRS2015

Could the 2012 Drought in Central U.S. Have Been Anticipated? A Review of NASA Working Group Research

This paper summarizes research related to the 2012 record drought in the central United States conducted by members of the NASA Energy and Water cycle Study (NEWS) Working Group. Past drought patterns were analyzed for signal coherency with latest drought and the contribution of long-term trends in the Great Plains low-level jet, an important regional circulation feature of the spring rainy season in the Great Palins. Long-term changes in the seasonal transition from rainy spring into dry summer were also examined. Potential external forcing from radiative processes, soil-air interactions, and ocean teleconnections were assessed as contributors to the intensity of the drought. The atmospheric Rossby wave activity was found to be a potential source of predictability for the onset of drought. A probabilistic model was introduced and evaluated for its performance in predicting drought recovery in the Great Plains.

Drought 2012↗
NASA NTRS2013

Northern Eurasian Heat Waves and Droughts

This article reviews our understanding of the characteristics and causes of northern Eurasian summertime heat waves and droughts. Additional insights into the nature of temperature and precipitation variability in Eurasia on monthly to decadal time scales and into the causes and predictability of the most extreme events are gained from the latest generation of reanalyses and from supplemental simulations with the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM. Key new results are: 1) the identification of the important role of summertime stationary Rossby waves in the development of the leading patterns of monthly Eurasian surface temperature and precipitation variability (including the development of extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heat wave), 2) an assessment of the mean temperature and precipitation changes that have occurred over northern Eurasia in the last three decades and their connections to decadal variability and global trends in SST, and 3) the quantification (via a case study) of the predictability of the most extreme simulated heat wave/drought events, with some focus on the role of soil moisture in the development and maintenance of such events. A literature survey indicates a general consensus that the future holds an enhanced probability of heat waves across northern Eurasia, while there is less agreement regarding future drought, reflecting a greater uncertainty in soil moisture and precipitation projections. Substantial uncertainties remain in our understanding of heat waves and drought, including the nature of the interactions between the short-term atmospheric variability associated with such extremes and the longer-term variability and trends associated with soil moisture feedbacks, SST anomalies, and an overall warming world.

SST↗
NASA NTRS2013

Probability of US Heat Waves Affected by a Subseasonal Planetary Wave Pattern

Heat waves are thought to result from subseasonal atmospheric variability. Atmospheric phenomena driven by tropical convection, such as the Asian monsoon, have been considered potential sources of predictability on subseasonal timescales. Mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics have been considered too chaotic to allow significant prediction skill of lead times beyond the typical 10-day range of weather forecasts. Here we use a 12,000-year integration of an atmospheric general circulation model to identify a pattern of subseasonal atmospheric variability that can help improve forecast skill for heat waves in the United States. We find that heat waves tend to be preceded by 15-20 days by a pattern of anomalous atmospheric planetary waves with a wavenumber of 5. This circulation pattern can arise as a result of internal atmospheric dynamics and is not necessarily linked to tropical heating.We conclude that some mid-latitude circulation anomalies that increase the probability of heat waves are predictable beyond the typical weather forecast range.

Mid-Latitude Circulation↗