Quantifying the value of probabilistic forecasting for power system operation planning
Not Available
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Engineering topics
Wang, Qin
Publications and source records attributed to Wang, Qin.
Operational Probabilistic Tools for Solar Uncertainty (OPTSUN) (Final Project Report for DOE Solar Forecasting II Project)
Increasing levels of solar PV can challenge system operations and may require novel methods to operate the power system reliably and efficiently. Power system operating plans generally use deterministic forecasts, in which the variable energy resources are represented by the expected value for each interval of the decision horizon. Probabilistic forecasts are relatively new but have the potential to address the shortfalls of deterministic forecasts. However, understanding how best to use such forecasts is still a key gap in industry and was the focus of this project. The project had three workstreams. In a forecasting workstream, improvements were made to baseline probabilistic forecasts using a number of new approaches such as machine learning methods and improved input data. In a design workstream, advanced simulation tools used these forecasts to investigate newly proposed reserve determination methods. Lastly, in a demonstration workstream a scheduling management platform (SMP) was developed to leverage probabilistic forecasts in a modular and customizable manner. In order to study the benefits that could be accrued, the project team collaborated with three utility partners (Duke Energy, Southern Company and Hawaiian Electric) to deliver improved probabilistic forecasts for each region and to model each region in case studies using advanced production cost modeling tools. Different methods to determine operating reserve requirements from probabilistic forecasts were developed, simulated, and tested across each region. The benefits of using these newly proposed methods varied by utility, but, in general, using probabilistic forecasts as well as historical data to set the reserve requirements seems to improve reliability related results, with less risk of reserve or supply shortfalls. The cost implications were not always straightforward; in some cases the new methods could show a reduction in expected operating costs, but often the increase in reserves associated with better risk mitigation using probabilistic forecasts could result in an increase in operating costs in the simulations. The SMP tool was developed to process probabilistic forecasts from their initial receipt through to scheduling decisions. This open-source tool consists of several modules for scenario development, reserve requirements calculation, and visualization. The SMP tool was demonstrated to a wide range of operators and stakeholders at all three utilities and further improved based on their feedback. The tool will be available on www.epri.com/optsun. The proposed probabilistic information-based reserve determination approaches have the potential to be implemented by different regions to ensure an economic and reliable power system operation on power systems integrating increasing levels of variable renewable resources. The innovative yet practical methods developed in this project demonstrated tangible benefits from using probabilistic forecasts beyond just study-based assessments to include three unique balancing areas. The demonstrated benefits across the multiple utility environments, are expected to provide system operators in all regions the confidence required and a platform to adopt the new forecasting and operating methods.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Evaluating Potential Benefits of Flexible Solar Power Generation in the Southern Company System
Not provided.
Energy & Fuels↗
Seismic Visibility of Eclogite in the Earth’s Upper Mantle—Implications From High Pressure‐Temperature Single‐Crystal Elastic Properties of Omphacite
Abstract Identifying and locating the geochemical and geophysical heterogeneities in the Earth’s interior is one of the most important and challenging tasks for the deep Earth scientists. Subducted oceanic crust metamorphizes into the dense eclogite in the upper mantle and is considered as a major cause of geochemical and geophysical heterogeneities in the deep Earth. In order to detect eclogitic materials inside the Earth, precise measurements of the high pressure‐temperature single‐crystal elasticity of major minerals in eclogite are thus exceedingly important. Omphacite, a Na,Al‐bearing clinopyroxene, constitutes up to 75 vol% of eclogite. In the present study, we performed the first high pressure‐temperature single‐crystal elasticity measurements of omphacite using Brillouin spectroscopy. Utilizing the finite‐strain approach, we obtained the following thermoelastic parameters for omphacite: K S0 ’ = 4.5(1), G 0 ’ = 1.53(5), ∂K S0 /∂ T = −0.029(5) GPa/K, ∂G 0 /∂ T = −0.013(5) GPa/K, with K S0 = 123(3) GPa, G 0 = 74(2) GPa, and ρ 0 = 3.34(1) g/cm 3 . We found that the seismic velocities of undeformed eclogite are similar to pyrolite at the depths of 200–300 and 410–500 km, thus eclogite is seismically invisible at these depths. Combined with the lattice‐preferred orientations of the omphacite in naturally deformed eclogites, we also modeled seismic anisotropy of eclogite at various pressure‐temperature conditions. A 10 km thick subducted eclogitic crust can result in ∼0.2 s shear wave splitting in the Earth’s upper mantle.
Hao, Ming↗
Robust System Separation Strategy Considering Online Wide-Area Coherency Identification and Uncertainties of Renewable Energy Sources
With the fast growth of renewable energy sources (RES), more and more uncertainties are involved and influencing the stable operation of power systems. Controlled islanding is the last measure to prevent power system blackouts, thus this paper aims to propose a novel model of system separation based on Online Coherency Identification and Adjustable Robust Optimization Programming (OCI-AROP) for minimizing load shedding considering the uncertainties of RES. First, Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering method with F-statistics is utilized to identify the coherent generator groups with the frequency data measured by Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs). Then, the OCI-AROP model considering coherent group constraints, connectivity constraints and robustness constraints about RES are presented. Finally, the case studies on IEEE-39 bus system and WECC-179 bus system are employed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed OCI-AROP model, and comparisons among the OCI-AROP model and the other models are also given to show its superiority.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗