Assessing the human hazard from impact-generated tsunami
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impact tsunami↗
Engineering topics
Ward, S. N.
Publications and source records attributed to Ward, S. N..
Impact Tsunami Calculations: Hydrodynamical Simulations vs. Linear Theory
Tsunamis generated by the impacts of asteroids and comets into the Earth oceans are widely recognized as a potential catastrophic hazard to the Earth s population. Our general conclusion is that linear theory is a reasonably accurate guide to behavior of tsunamis generated by impactors of moderate size, where the initial transient impact cavity is of moderate depth compared to the ocean depth. This is particularly the case for long wavelength waves that propagate fastest and would reach coastlines first. Such tsunamis would be generated in the open ocean by impactors of 300 meters in diameter, which might be expected to strike the Earth once every few thousand years, on the average. Larger impactors produce cavities deep enough to reach the ocean floor; even here, linear theory is applicable if the starting point is chosen at a later phase in the calculation when the impact crater has slumped back to produce a cavity of moderate depth and slope.
Korycansky, E.↗
Viscoelastic deformation near active plate boundaries
Model deformations near the active plate boundaries of Western North America using space-based geodetic measurements as constraints are discussed. The first six months of this project were spent gaining familarity with space-based measurements, accessing the Crustal Dynamics Data Information Computer, and building time independent deformation models. The initial goal was to see how well the simplest elastic models can reproduce very long base interferometry (VLBI) baseline data. From the Crustal Dynamics Data Information Service, a total of 18 VLBI baselines are available which have been surveyed on four or more occasions. These data were fed into weighted and unweighted inversions to obtain baseline closure rates. Four of the better quality lines are illustrated. The deformation model assumes that the observed baseline rates result from a combination of rigid plate tectonic motions plus a component resulting from elastic strain build up due to a failure of the plate boundary to slip at the full plate tectonic rate. The elastic deformation resulting from the locked plate boundary is meant to portray interseismic strain accumulation. During and shortly after a large interplate earthquake, these strains are largely released, and points near the fault which were previously retarded suddenly catch up to the positions predicted by rigid plate models. Researchers judge the quality of fit by the sum squares of weighted residuals, termed total variance. The observed baseline closures have a total variance of 99 (cm/y)squared. When the RM2 velocities are assumed to model the data, the total variance increases to 154 (cm/y)squared.
Ward, S. N.↗