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Warner, Thomas T.

Publications and source records attributed to Warner, Thomas T..

A Carolina coastal low-level jet during GALE IOP 2

A persistent, diurnally varying low-level jet (LLJ) was observed along the Carolina coastal plain during the early part of GALE IOP 2 between 0000 UTC January 24 and 0600 UTC January 25. A 1D PBL model (Zhang and Anthes, 1982) is utilized to examine the various dynamic forcing mechanisms controlling the formation and evolution of the LLJ. The experiments suggest that a specific geostrophic wind velocity profile in the lower troposphere was necessary to produce a number of the observed Carolina LLJ characteristics.

Doyle, James D.↗

Mesoscale coastal processes during GALE IOP 2

Diagnostic calculations and detailed mesoscale analyses of data for the period January 24-26, 1986 during the second observation period of the Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment (GALE) were used to investigate mesoscale coastal processes during this period. Using a variety of National-Weather-Service and GALE surface and upper-air data, three physically related phenomena were studied: the coastal front; a shallow cyclone that propagated along the coastal front, modifying it as it moved northward; and a low-level jet that formed in the strong coastal pressure-gradient field.

Doyle, James D.↗

Sensitivity of mesoscale-model forecast skill to some initial-data characteristics, data density, data position, analysis procedure and measurement error

The effects of horizontal and vertical data resolution, data density, data location, different objective analysis algorithms, and measurement error on mesoscale-forecast accuracy are studied with observing-system simulation experiments. Domain-averaged errors are shown to generally decrease with time. It is found that the vertical distribution of error growth depends on the initial vertical distribution of the error itself. Larger gravity-inertia wave noise is produced in forecasts with coarser vertical data resolution. The use of a low vertical resolution observing system with three data levels leads to more forecast errors than moderate and high vertical resolution observing systems with 8 and 14 data levels. Also, with poor vertical resolution in soundings, the initial and forecast errors are not affected by the horizontal data resolution.

Warner, Thomas T.↗

Use of four-dimensional data assimilation by Newtonian relaxation and latent-heat forcing to improve a mesoscale-model precipitation forecast - A case study

The Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model was used to study special static-initialization (SI) and dynamic-initialization (DI) techniques designed to improve short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), as applied to the heavy convective rainfall that occurred in Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas during the May 9-10, 1979 SESAMY IV study period. In the DI procedure, two types of four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) procedures were used to incorporate data during a 12-h preforecast period, one using the Newtonian relaxation, the other using latent-heat forcing. It was found that combined use of either the preforecast or in-forecast latent-heat forcing with the Newtonian relaxation produced an improved forecast (relative to a conventional forecast procedure) of rainfall intensity compared to the use of the Newtonian relaxation alone. The use of the experimental SI with prescribed latent heating during the first forecast hour produced greatly improved rainfall rates.

Wang, Wei↗

Verification of mesoscale objective analyses of VAS and rawinsode data using the March 1982 AVE/VAS special network data

Various combinations of VAS (Visible and Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer Atmospheric Sounder) data, conventional rawinsonde data, and gridded data from the National Weather Service's (NWS) global analysis, were used in successive-correction and variational objective-analysis procedures. Analyses are produced for 0000 GMT 7 March 1982, when the VAS sounding distribution was not greatly limited by the existence of cloud cover. The successive-correction (SC) Procedure was used with VAS data alone, rawinsonde data alone, and both VAS and rawinsonde data. Variational techniques were applied in three ways. Each of these techniques was discussed.

Doyle, James D.↗

Utilization of VAS satellite data in the initialization of an oceanic cyclogenesis simulation

A series of experiments was performed to test various methods of incorporating Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer Atmospheric Sounder (VAS)-sounding data into the initial conditions of the Penn State University/National Center for Atmospheric mesoscale model. The VAS data for this ocean-cyclogenesis case consist of 110 irregularly distributed temperature and humidity soundings located over the North Pacific Ocean and apply at approximately 1200 GMT November 10, 1981. Various methods of utilizing VAS data in the initial condition of a mesoscale model were evaluated.

Douglas, Sharon G.↗

A numerical study of Appalachian cold-air damming and coastal frontogenesis

The mesoscale structures of the wedge-shaped pressure ridge and the coastal front associated with the Appalachian ice storm of January 13-14, 1980 is analyzed using a mesoscale model. The characteristic features of the mesoscale model, which uses 15 vertical levels, 50-km grid length, and multilevel, boundary-layer parameterization, are described. The simulation of the surface layer winds and temperature, the evolution of the vertical temperature structure of the wedge-ridge region, and model simulations of the low-level jets and the coastal front are examined. Trajectories based on the 24-hr simulation of the winds are discussed.

Stauffer, David R.↗

The error associated with use of various forms of the divergence equation to diagnose geopotential and temperature

This study utilizes a model-generated data set to evaluate the errors associated with the diagnosis of geopotential height using three approximate forms of the divergence equation (DE). The DE was solved on the original sigma-coordinate surfaces of the model to exclude any error produced in the process of interpolating the data from observation points to the coordinate surface of the DE. An inviscid, nonlinear, divergent DE produced rms geopotential height errors as large as 3 m and rms temperature errors of over 26 C in the lower planetary boundary layer (PBL), with minimal errors above 800 mb. Elimination of the isobaric divergence in the velocity field caused additional height errors of 5-6 m and temperature errors of 0.4-1.2 C in the free troposphere. Use of a further-degraded DE without nonlinear terms caused height errors of 10-15 m in the upper troposphere with modestly increased temperature errors. Error fields at all levels had synoptic-scale features, with some mesoalpha structure. No spatial noise was apparent. Use of a temporal spectral filter to eliminate high-frequency modes from the model-generated data did not significantly influence the error associated with use of various forms of the DE.

Modica, George M.↗

Utilization of satellite data in mesoscale modeling of severe weather

The Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) data were used to model the 36 hour cyclogenesis period over the Pacific Ocean. Various combinations of VAS data, conventional radiosonde data, and gridded data from the National Weather Service global analysis were used in successive-correction and variational objective-analysis procedures. The Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model was used to test the impact of the VAS data on a 12 hour forecast of convective precipitation in the midweastern U.S.

Warner, Thomas T.↗

Verification of mesoscale objective analyses of VAS and rawinsonde data using the March 1982 AVE/VAS special network data

Various combinations of VAS (Visible and Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer Atmospheric Sounder) data, conventional rawinsonde data, and gridded data from the National Weather Service's (NWS) global analysis, were used in successive-correction and variational objective-analysis procedures. Analyses are produced for 0000 GMT 7 March 1982, when the VAS sounding distribution was not greatly limited by the existence of cloud cover. The successive-correction (SC) procedure was used with VAS data alone, rawinsonde data alone, and both VAS and rawinsonde data. Variational techniques were applied in three ways. Each of these techniques was discussed.

Doyle, James D.↗

Short-term numerical precipitation forecasts initialized using a diagnosed divergent-wind component

Use of the diagnosed-divergence initialization procedure of Tarbell et al. (1979) to predict the hourly rainfall data used in short-term precipitation forecasts is examined experimentally. Data simulations using a mesoscale model and balanced and internally consistent data were conducted; the physical and numerical characteristics of the mesoscale model are described. The real experiment used rainfall data from April 25-26, 1979 to investigate the capabilities of the initialization procedure to improve short-term precipitation forecasts. The derivation of the diagnosed-divergent wind using a mesoscale omega equation which includes the effects of latent heating is discussed. The diagnosed-divergence initialization forecasts are compared to nondivergence or observed-divergence initializations. It is observed that the diagnosed-divergence initializations provide better rainfall data than the other initializations.

Salmon, Ellen M.↗

Utilization of VAS satellite data in the initialization of an oceanic-cyclogenesis simulation

A series of experiments was performed to test various method of incorporating Visible Infrared Spin Scan Radiometer Atmospheric Sounder (VAS)-sounding data into the initial conditions of the Penn State University/National Center for Atmospheric mesoscale model. The VAS data for this ocean-cyclogenesis case consist of 110 irregularly distributed temperature and humidity soundings located over the North Pacific Ocean and apply at approximately 1200 GMT 10 November 1981. Various methods of utilizing VAS data in the initial condition of a mesoscale model were evaluated.

Douglas, Sharon G.↗